Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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123 FXUS64 KEWX 101850 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 150 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Morning mid-level clouds were indicative of some unplanned shower and storm activity in our eastern and southern counties and that has come to fruition with some scattered activity continuing in the east. Northeast winds prevail at the surface with speeds around 10 to 20 mph with some slightly higher gusts. Southwest flow aloft continues across the region and with some upslope flow on the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande could induce some scattered showers and storms in Mexico late this afternoon. Some of this activity could push east into our Rio Grande counties. The HRRR has backed off this scenario and lowered PoPs slightly as a result. SPC has also removed the western counties from the marginal risk as well. Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s. For tomorrow, southerly flow returns with weak ascent which may lead to isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for the western two- thirds of the area. Highs will be cooler in the 80s for most locations. Rain chances will increase into Saturday night and early Sunday morning as the main support from the approaching shortwave arrives to the area. Rain chances will be in the 20-50 percent range. Some elevated rain amounts may be possible with amounts generally less than 3/4 of an inch. Instability amounts will remain low and not expecting widespread strong storms outside of a small chance for Val Verde County where instability is slightly higher. Lows tomorrow night will be back in the in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An active spring pattern continues with a series of upper level systems pivoting from the Desert Southwest through the Central Plains in the coming week. Additionally, rising humidity and returning above average warmth will be expected with prevailing south to southeasterly winds becoming more common within the forecast. The first period for good rain and storm chances over South-Central Texas is expected Sunday into Sunday night with forcing from the first upper level low to the north. Additional shower and storm activity is then possible Monday afternoon as a front slides across the region. Tuesday should be a reprieve in between systems with what looks like a rain free forecast and slightly lower humidity levels. Moisture levels return and the increase in forcing ahead of the next upper level system should bring increasing rain and storm chances from Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front then looks to clear out the rain/storm chances into Friday. With pooling instability and supportive wind shear profiles over South-Central Texas through much of the period, the times when convection does develop, it could become organized. Any storm activity could also produce locally heavy rainfall. Pending on precedent conditions and locality, some instances of flooding is possible. Details, such as placement and timing of convection, become more clear into and through the short term period with assessment of the capping inversion, and mesoscale features or boundaries. Overall, the probability for more than 1 inch of rainfall through the long term are currently more than 50 to 60 percent across the northern and eastern half of the CWA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are returning to the area this morning with some clouds still hanging on. Northeast winds are prevailing across the area with speeds generally less than 15 knots. VFR will likely prevail through the remainder of the period. There is a small chance for a thunderstorm near DRT and will include VCTS there this evening. Otherwise, no major impacts are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 85 68 81 / 0 10 40 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 83 67 81 / 0 10 40 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 85 68 85 / 0 10 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 64 81 66 78 / 0 20 40 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 88 73 92 / 20 20 40 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 82 66 79 / 0 10 40 80 Hondo Muni Airport 69 84 68 87 / 10 20 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 84 67 83 / 0 10 40 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 84 70 84 / 0 10 30 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 84 69 86 / 0 10 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 70 84 70 86 / 0 10 40 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...29