Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 250502
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
102 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.Short Term...(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

(Tonight) - Mostly clear skies, calm winds, and cool temperatures

An upper ridge axis sits near the CWA with a surface high in place
over the CWA. This will continue to bring mostly clear skies and
nearly calm winds to southern Indiana and central Kentucky during
the overnight hours. Expect temperatures to fall to the low to mid
60s by radiative cooling. The dewpoint depression is too great to
think fog would be much of an issue for most, but light valley fog
could be seen in the southern areas of central Kentucky and in the
Bluegrass Region.

(Tomorrow) - Warm day with a chance of showers in south central KY.

The upper ridge moves east and the upper trough starts to follow
from the west. The surface high will move towards the east coast and
surface winds will veer to the east then to the south by mid
morning.

Near mid-day sky cover will build in from the southwest and
southeast bringing a chance for showers and thunder for central
Kentucky as moisture is advected northward. With the southerly wind,
temperatures are expected in the mid to upper 80s. The higher
temperatures will likely be in southern Indiana with the clear
skies.

Upper level and surface ridge axis which has provided the region
with dry and tranquil weather is forecast to shift off to the east.
A deeper flow of moisture will start to impinge on the region on
Friday which should bring slightly more humid conditions to the
region.  An upper level trough will approach from the west, but it
looks to remain just far enough west to not make much of an impact
on our weather for Friday.  However, some CAMs indicate that some
isolated-scattered convection may fire across our far SE sections
and into SE KY Friday afternoon.  Highs on Friday will warm into the
mid-upper 80s with overnight lows cooling back into the mid-upper
60s.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

...A muggy and Unsettled Memorial Day Weekend Still On Tap...

By Saturday, upper level trough axis looks to push into the region.
This feature, combined with increasing moisture should produce a
decent round of afternoon/evening convection.  Severe parameters are
very marginal and the threat with these storms would be torrential
rainfall, gusty winds, and some lightning.  The upper level trough
axis is forecast to shift a little more to the east by Sunday.
However, we do expect another round of afternoon/evening convection,
though the coverage looks to be a bit less than what we could see on
Saturday.  Highs Saturday and Sunday look to top out in the mid-
upper 80s with overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.  The urban
corridors may stay a little warmer through the overnight periods.

Moving into Memorial Day, most eyes will be on the expected tropical
disturbance moving through the northern Gulf coast states.  Latest
Euro solutions show the system coming ashore near the FL/AL border
region.  A trend in the data shows a bit more ridging overhead
Monday, especially across our northern half of the area.  Overall,
the signal points to more isolated afternoon/eve storms with perhaps
lesser coverage than Sunday.  Highs will continue to run warm with
mid-upper 80s expected and overnight lows in the upper 60s to near
70.

Moving into Tue/Wed, closed low/remnants of the Gulf tropical system
look to lift northward and get pulled through the Ohio Valley ahead
of an advancing upper level trough.  This would give the region a
much higher chance of showers and storms in the Tue-Wed time frame,
possibly lingering into Thursday.  Have lowered temps a little bit
here given the expected precipitation and clouds associated with the
remnants pulling through the region.   Highs should average in the
low-mid 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

One more dry day for the airports as central Kentucky and southern
Indiana sit in a relatively dry atmosphere between better moisture
feeds to our east and west. An isolated thunderstorm near BWG and
LEX this afternoon can`t be completely ruled out, but chances aren`t
high enough for inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

Tonight an upper level disturbance approaching from the west may
help to spark widely scattered showers/storms as deeper moisture
overspreads the region. However, once again coverage looks too
spotty and confidence of an airport being affected isn`t high enough
for inclusion in the TAFs quite yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...KDW
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...13



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