Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 241037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A northerly flow of cold air will keep our temperatures below
normal into Monday. Warmer air will begin to move into the area
on Tuesday.


Northerly surface flow continues with a deep upper trough over
New England. Marginal temperatures and late season will limit
lake response, meanwhile deeper moisture from the upper low will
remain mostly east of the area. Result will be variable clouds
with limited moisture. Scattered flurries are possible nearly at
any time, especially over the New York zones, Very dry low
level air will limit the precipitation.

High temperatures in the low to middle 30s will keep the area
at least 20 degrees below normal for early spring.


345 AM Update...
This will be a quiet period courtesy of dry high pressure, with
temperatures starting chilly yet trending to near normal.

The center of large high pressure will sag from Quebec Sunday
night, into New England Monday, and then into the Canadian
Martimes into Tuesday. Its broad reach, with abundant dry air,
will keep the sky generally free of clouds Sunday night through
at least early Tuesday. Warm air advection will begin aloft
Monday as an upper level ridge starts moving in from the Midwest
towards the Central to Eastern Great Lakes region, but the
thermal profile of the atmosphere will be very stable so warming
at the surface will be more gradual. That being said, plenty of
sunshine Monday, so despite dawn readings in the upper teens-
mid 20s, we should still manage highs of around 40-45 degrees or
so. Radiational cooling will again realize upper teens-mid 20s
Monday night.

By Tuesday, high pressure will be more distant, and the surface
ridge axis extending from it will also shift to our east. This
will allow a light southeasterly return flow to begin, which in
tandem with continued ridging aloft along with a good amount of
sun - especially through at least midday - will push
temperatures into upper 40s- lower 50s range. Later in the day
some high clouds will try to advect in through the ridge aloft.


345 AM Update...
Slow moving frontal zone with embedded waves still appears
likely to create some chances of rain showers over the region
during this period. Tricky on the front end, in that incoming
rain showers could include a bit of wintry mix if it arrives
soon enough late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Details
on that will become clearer with time. Otherwise, generally rain
as precipitation type through at least Friday, before cooler
air mass behind frontal zone begins to advect in. Unsure at this
time if precipitation chances will persist enough for snow to
mix back in Friday night; that is a long ways off.

Previous discussion...
Elongated frontal system over the Central U.S. will slide east
into the Great Lakes. This system will very slowly slide
across our forecast area through Friday, keeping a chance for
rain showers over our region. The rain could mix with snow
during the colder early morning hours, especially over our
northern and eastern counties.

At this point we are favoring the ECMWF solution, which is
lighter on the QPF. Temperatures will peak between 45 and 50
Tuesday, then rise into the lower-50s for Wednesday and
Thursday. As the front crosses the region on Friday,
temperatures will peak between the upper-40s and lower-50s.



VFR is expected through the period. Northerly flow will
continue but with dry air and marginal temperature differential,
lake response should be limited so any cloud decks should
remain in the VFR range. A few isolated flurries are possible,
but restrictions are not expected.


Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.




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