Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1246 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

An upper level disturbance will cross the region today through
early tonight. High pressure will build down from the north
later tonight and Sunday and crest over the area Monday into

An upper level disturbance and surface trof will cross the
region this afternoon through early tonight. Snow and rain
showers will develop across the region this afternoon, then
persist early tonight. Localized snow accumulations up to
around an inch are possible across mostly central/northern areas
this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected
this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the
mid to upper 30s north, to around 40 to the lower 40s Downeast.
Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions
along with afternoon snow/rain shower chances, cloud cover and
to slightly increase high temperatures in many locations.

Previous Discussion...
An upper level shortwave trough digging to our west today will
combine with an inverted surface trough sliding from east to
west across the area to produce snow showers, mainly this
afternoon. Divergent flow out of the upper trough to our west
will combine with surface convergence from the inverted trough
to support lift. Sounding forecasts are showing steep lapse
rates projected for this afternoon with an unstable layer
expected to be up to 9K ft. Snow showers may briefly be heavy at
times this afternoon with snow pellets and reduced
visibilities. Any of the snow showers could produce a quick
small accumulation of snow. The snow showers will taper off this
evening. Skies may begin to clear from the north very late
tonight as high pressure begins to build down from Quebec.

Sfc hipres wl be building south into CWA on Sun mrng with upr lvl
heading south as upr lvl ridge axis amplifies into Quebec. May see a
few lingering snow showers along the Downeast coast in the mrng but
expect these wl quickly come to an end by noon. Skies wl clr fm
north to south drg the day with maxes slightly blo normal values
under caa.

Sfc high wl dominate the area`s wx thru the end of the short term.
Clr skies, calm winds and snow cvr wl allow temps to drop into the
single digits acrs the north Mon mrng, about 5-8 degrees blo normal
acrs entire CWA. Expect that highs on Monday wl climb to nr normal
under sunny skies.

High pressure builds into the maritimes at the start of the long
term pd with return flow commencing on Tuesday. Upr lvl low that
drifted offshore Sun mrng wl slowly retrograde twd the area by mid-
week. However med range guidance shows it rmng far enuf offshore to
hv minimal impact on coastal areas. Upr lvl trof and assoc frontal
bndry wl bring pcpn into the region Wed ngt with warm advection
expected drg the day Wed. Highs wl top out in the 40s at all locales
on Wed aftn. With temps aloft warming thru Thur highs the next day
wl lkly be warmer with some parts of Downeast appchg 50F for maxes.
Aft this time upr trof wl be digging thru the cntrl portion of the
conus and wl lkly lead to an active pattern thru the end of the

NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR/MVFR conditions across the
region this afternoon. Occasional IFR conditions are also
possible across mostly northern and central areas this
afternoon with any heavier snow showers. Similar conditions are
expected to persist across the region early tonight, with VFR
conditions developing overnight.

SHORT TERM: VFR Sun morning through the middle part of the week
under high pressure. Potential exists for MVFR cigs beginning
Wed aftn.

NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this
afternoon through tonight. However, a few gusts could approach
gale levels later tonight across the offshore waters.
Visibilities could be reduced at times in rain/snow showers this
afternoon through early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Cannot rule out gale force winds for the outer
waters through early Sun afternoon. Expect SCA level winds
through Mon morning before dropping to below 25kts briefly
before increasing again Tue morning.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for ANZ050>052.



Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
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