457
FXUS63 KDDC 141008
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and storms possible from Tuesday night
  through Thursday.

- Marginal risk of severe weather Tuesday night and Wednesday
  night. Storms will be strong to marginally severe with hail up
  to quarters and 60 mph gusts.

- The weekend will be warmer and dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a departing
upper low in north central Missouri and NVA with subsidence
across Kansas leading to mostly clear skies. A 1008 mb high is
also leading to light winds.

Today should be warmer as 850 mb temperatures will be 4C
warmer than yesterday in the eastern zones and 7C warmer in the
west. Surface winds will also turn to the southeast by late
morning as a warm front moves through western Kansas during the
day and an upper level ridge moves into the central plains.
Highs should reach into the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight a shortwave in eastern Colorado will lead to a surface
low developing and a weak frontal boundary will set up from
southeast Colorado to north central Kansas. CAM models have
scattered storms developing in northeast Colorado and northwest
Kansas in the vicinity of the low and frontal boundary in the
late afternoon to early evening hours and then moving through
our northern zones between 00-07Z. Highest probability of rain
(40-50% POPs) will be roughly between highway 50 and I-70 with
rainfall amounts in the thunderstorms having around a 60% chance
of reaching a quarter inch. CAPE values ahead of the storms will
be around 1000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear values are around 30
kts so severe risk should be limited to some downburst winds and
maybe some hail.

Wednesday the storms should depart by sunrise and with
subsidence as the upper level wave departs and cooler northeast
winds through the day this should keep the rain and storm
chances low through southwest Kansas. The main upper level wave
is not forecast to reach Kansas until after sunset so the POPs
will be limited to around the vicinity of where the cold front
stalls in northern Oklahoma. Highs will be in the upper 70s in
the north to the low 80s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Wednesday night a 500-700 mb shortwave will eject out of the
Rockies into the central and southern plains and numerous storms
are forecast to develop along the cold or stationary front in
northern Oklahoma, the Texas panhandle, and southern Kansas
after sunset. Storms will continue to develop and expand
northward through the night as the main upper level forcing
comes out of eastern Colorado between 03-06Z. CAPE values will
be the highest along the Oklahoma border at around 1500 J/kg and
the rest of southwest Kansas will be ~1000. Shear values will
also be highest along the border with 40-50 0-6 km bulk shear
values. CSU-MLP severe risk forecast is showing a higher hail
risk along the Oklahoma border along with a small tornado risk.
Given the setup the severe threat does look to have the higher
chances south of highway 50 with hail larger than quarters and
gusty winds...and more of a general to stronger storm threat
north of highway 50 with hail less than quarter size and gusts
to 50 mph.

Thursday the upper level ensembles have a slow moving longwave
trough in the central and southern plains with the main forcing
in Oklahoma and Texas. POP trends will depend on where the
frontal boundary and upper level forcing lines up but at this
point the higher POPs will be to the south with 20-30% POPs in
southwest Kansas on Thursday.

For the weekend ensemble upper air patterns are showing a zonal
to slight ridging pattern and with south to southwest winds in
the boundary layer 850 mb temperatures are expected to heat up
into the 20-25 (C) range. As a result we will see highs reach
into the 90s (50-80% probability >90 F in the EPS and GEFS
outlooks).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Spotty low clouds around DDC and HYS will lead to MVFR to IFR
flight category through 14Z and then the VFR flight category
for all terminals for the rest of the time period. Winds in the
afternoon will be at around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts. After 00Z
a few storms will move from northwest Kansas into north central
Kansas and we could have VCTS for GCK, DDC, and HYS between
03-06Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro