Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 240914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
414 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Rainfall from earlier this evening has translated ewd into ern
TN/cntrl GA. These showers continue to be associated with an upper
low/trough axis that is gradually making its way ewd across the mid
TN Valley region. The associated sfc low pressure system is also
tracking ewd across mid/ern TN, with a diffuse boundary located from
NW TN sewd into extreme NE AL and further SE into W cntrl GA.

Patchy dense fog has formed across portions of srn mid TN into NE AL
mainly along/N of this weak sfc boundary. However, some of this fog
briefly mixed out as the boundary lifted more to the N over the last
hr or two. This trend may be short lived though as more patchy fog
develops across the ern zones in response to the earlier rainfall
coupled with light/var winds. Really cannot rule out some patchy fog
developing in other parts of the area before the onset of the daytime
hrs. Any fog that forms though should quickly diminish/lift within an
hr or so after sunrise.

As the sfc/upper low continue to track ewd, very limited moisture
wrapping around the storm system may yet result in more sct showers
developing/spreading into the area from the W later today. Little/if
any instability present should at least limit the threat for any iso
embedded tstms today. With skies xpcted to remain predom cloudy,
along with the developing rainfall, afternoon temps will struggle to
climb any higher than mainly the upper 60s for most areas.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Rainfall will finally begin to taper off this evening, as the upper
trough pattern weakens and lifts into the mid Atlantic Basin. The sfc
low will also be weakening as it moves NE up the Atlantic Coast. The
dry spell though may be short lived as another sfc low and attendant
cold front out of the mid/srn Plains begins to approach the region on
Wed. This will at least have low rain chances coming back into the
forecast late Wed, before rain chances increase Wed night/Thu as the
system begins to move across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

At the beginning of the period, a series of upper level disturbances
pinwheeling around a vortex parked over NE Canada will bring more
unsettled conditions across the area to end the work week. The
operational models depict showers over the region exiting to the
east Thursday night. But the GFS ensemble and previous continuity was
wetter, so opted for a slight chance of showers during Friday. These
chances may go away in future forecasts if their trends stay on a
drier side. In any case, overall moisture and clouds should be on a
downward swing by Friday evening, as what looks like the last of
those pesky systems exits to the east. High pressure situated over
the western Plains will build eastward - and reward the Tennessee
Valley with a rain-free weekend into early next week.

Still cooler than normal temperatures will continue for the remainder
of the week, with highs on Friday in the mid/upper 60s, and nearing
70 on Saturday. Normal high/low temperatures on Saturday are around
77/54. Surface high pressure and upper ridging building in from the
west, along with strong late April sun will bring high temperatures
into the mid 70s on Sunday, and the upper 70s to end the month next
Monday. A dry trend should also continue for the start of the next
work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Low/mid level cloud cover varies across the area heading into the
overnight hrs, with cigs heights near 8K ft in place at both major
terminals thus far. This trend is not xpcted to last though as lower
cigs in the 1-2K ft range over NE MS spread ewd into the area within
the next couple of hrs. Given the rainfall from earlier this evening
coupled with light winds, reduced vis around 4-5SM are possible as
well within the next few hrs. Cigs/vis may briefly lower into the IFR
cat early Tue morning, with cig heights around 700-900 ft and vis
near 2SM. Overall conds will improve some late Tue morning, as cigs
climb back into the 1-2K ft range and linger into the afternoon hrs.





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