Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 240930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018


WV imagery shows a broad, upper-lvl ridge centered over the CONUS,
abutted by troughs off the west and east coasts.  A shortwave is
moving thru the ridge into MN/IA, and will send a weak cold front
into our NE zones by around 18Z today.  Cloud cover played hob on
afternoon highs yesterday, but temps still managed to top out near-
record.  Sat imagery indicates more variable cloudiness today, and
the cold front and 850mb forecasts suggest temps won`t get quite as
warm as yesterday.  Critical fire wx is still anticipated NW,
however.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details.
Interestingly, between 00Z-03Z Sun, both the NAM and GFS bring a
40-50kt 825mb speed max through the Guadalupes, w/forecast soundings
suggesting a few hrs of high winds there.  Consequently, we`ve
upgraded the watch there to a warning.

Overnight tonight, the upper trough off the PacNW coast is forecast
to make landfall in srn OR, and begin digging down the coast,
maintaining SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
As such, it will push the upper ridge east, precipitating a decline
in thicknesses/temps into midweek of next week.  Forecast soundings
out west suggest mixing to around 625mb Sunday afternoon/evening,
for potentially another high wind event in the Guadalupes similar to
this evening`s, although cloud cover may mitigate this somewhat.
We`ve issue a watch for this.

The upper trough is forecast to dig to AZ by 06Z Tue, increasing
chances of convection over the ern zones beginning late Sun night as
disturbances peel off the base of the trough and move over the area.
Tue, long-range models begin diverging on solutions, w/the GFS
speeding the trough thru the CWA Wed afternoon, while other models
lag until Thu.  In the middle of this, models drop a cold front into
the area Tue night, enhancing precip chances and taking temps blo
normal Wed-Fri.  W/model discrepancies and us being in a drought,
we`ve lowered POPs somewhat from what the blends have conjured up/
w/best chances for rain being Mon night thru Thu. Moisture fields
suggest drier solutions as well, w/better chances further east into



Another unseasonably warm day is expected today, with highs areawide
around 10-15 degrees above normal. RHs this afternoon drop to 10-15%
for most of the area, so not expecting conditions to be quite as
extreme as yesterday, most notably across the higher terrain where
RHs will range from around 15-23%. Southwesterly flow aloft,
responsible for the increase in moisture, continues today, though
mixing will be somewhat inhibited due to increasing cloudcover. The
strongest winds this afternoon into this evening are expected in the
Guadalupe Mountains, though elevated RH will preclude critical fire
weather conditions there. Across the Southeast New Mexico Plains,
20ft winds around 20-25 mph with higher gusts are possible this
afternoon into this evening. While increasing clouds will limit
significant fire potential, given ERCs solidly in the 70th-90th
percentile and RFTIs around 3-4, have upgraded the Fire Weather
Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Southeast New Mexico Plains
where conditions look to be most favorable for fire growth/spread.
The Watch has been canceled for the remainder of the watch area
given lighter winds, however, elevated/near critical conditions are
expected across most of the region due to the well above normal
temperatures and dry conditions. Similar conditions will be possible
again on Sunday afternoon, though will defer to later shifts to make
the call on any potential Watches/Warnings.


Big Spring                     88  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       85  58  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  61  93  61 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  87  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 78  56  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          83  56  81  54 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          81  48  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           89  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         89  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           90  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0


NM...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT
     tonight for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT
     tonight for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.



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