Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 280306
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1006 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for late evening thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Outflow boundary from earlier this afternoon has triggered a few
storms across northeast Arkansas in the past hour...specifically
as it crested Crowley`s Ridge. This trend may continue for the
next couple of hours...so extended a slight chance for a storm or
shower in the region through 1am.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 726 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

.UPDATE...

.Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

Subtropical Storm Alberto is currently centered over the Gulf of
Mexico, approximately 600 miles southeast of the Memphis metro.
Visible satellite scans depict some mid to upper level clouds from
Alberto already over the region as it treks NNW toward landfall
over the Florida Panhandle early Monday. This storm will quickly
lose strength as it moves over Alabama and eventually will bring
some rain to parts of the Mid-South.

At 3 PM, showers and thunderstorms ongoing are moving NE to SW,
indicating likely enhancing by initial forcing from Alberto in
conjunction with afternoon heating. These will wane after sunset,
with coverage limited to NE MS overnight.

An upper level ridge is located just to the west of the CWA, with
the ridge axis extending roughly from Far West Texas northeast to
northern Wisconsin. This feature will remain in place for much of
the forecast period, keeping Alberto`s track to our east and much
of western portions of the CWA with limited POPs throughout the
period.

Included chance POPs for Memorial Day, as shower and thunderstorm
coverage will increase as Alberto moves closer to Tennessee.
Cloud cover will limit sunshine for the eastern half of the CWA,
while sun and the upper ridge promote highs in the lower 90s for
much of eastern Arkansas. Low to mid 80s will largely prevail
elsewhere on Monday. The cloud cover is likely to expand on
Tuesday, with temperatures only in the 80s as the upper ridge
retreats westward.

The best chance for POPs will be on Tuesday, when the official
NHC track for Alberto has the storm moving just east of the CWA
throughout the day. Rainfall totals from early Tuesday through
Wednesday will be heaviest across eastern counties in NE MS and
those of W TN nearest the TN River. These areas could see 1 to 2
inches total, with localized heavier amounts.

Alberto will move north of the region by early Wednesday, with the
flow aloft becoming more northwesterly in its wake. A few weak
impulses embedded in this flow will provide forcing for convection
for Thursday and Friday. However, confidence remains low in this
and thus have not gone higher than chance POPs at this time.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend late week as the upper
ridge builds in from the southwest gradually. Highs will be near
90 areawide on Thursday, and in the low to mid 90s by Saturday.
Southerly surface flow will enhance moisture advection, with
resultant heat indices near and even exceeding 100 degrees by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION.../00z TAFs/

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue near KTUP for the
evening hours with the potential for reduced vsbys and cigs.
Included a tempo for storms through 02z. Elsewhere, expect mainly
dry conditions with VFR cigs. Some late night fog may reduce vsbys
at all terminals which will quickly mix out by Monday mid morning.
Winds should remain light and variable outside of convection.

Additional showers and thunderstorms should develop by late
morning through evening, especially near KTUP on Monday. Cigs and
vsbys will likely be reduced in storms. Elsewhere, have
maintained VCTS as chances are lower, along with VFR cigs and
vsbys. Winds will turn northeast and increase to around 10 kts by
afternoon as the low level flow becomes influenced by the outer
wind fields of Alberto.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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