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864
FXUS64 KOHX 241117
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
617 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper and low level high pressure ridging will stack nicely across
the mid state today. The sfc ridge will cajole some drier low level
air across the area. Thus mrh values will drop and cape values as
well given the relatively lower dewpoints. Hrrr in agreement with
little if any convective activity. There is a weak sfc trough over
eastern TN, however. Will therefore continue with a 20 pop for our
far east for late this afternoon. The nice weather will carry into
tonight as mostly clear/partly cloudy skies are expected.

The upper ridging will weaken on Friday as a weak trough sets up to
our west and south. Mrh levels increase, along with pos 0z omegas
and a favorable cape to cap ratio by the afternoon. So, showers and
thunderstorms will be right back in the forecast. The troughing will
persist into Saturday with similar convective chances once again.
Qpf values not too bad through Saturday. Looks like amounts will
average around 1/2 inch for most areas. Watch those capes though,
could be a strong storm or two in the afternoon.

For our near term temps, today looks like the warmest day as per the
greater amount of sunshine. Highs will be near 90 but the humidity
should come down just a touch. The remainder of the short term
period looks like upper 60s for lows and upper 80s for highs with
increasing humidity levels.

In the extended forecast, we are keeping an eye on a tropical
disturbance which will be moving northward through the Gulf on
Sunday. This feature will stall over the deep south but there is a
bit of discrepancy between the major extended advice as to how far
west the system will be. At any rate, at this time, it appears that
Mon through Wed will represent that timeframe with the highest pops.
Drier and less active weather appears to be likely by late week as
drier westerlies finally take command.

For the ext temps, look for a below average diurnal range as a quasi
tropical-like regime sets up. That said, humidity and temperature
levels as a whole will be on the warm side for late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. Some MVFR fog will be possible at KCSV through around 14Z.
Winds look to be around or less than 5 knots out of the northeast
today, becoming more southerly by the end of the TAF period.
Cigs will remain VFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Barnwell