527
FXUS64 KOHX 160455
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue for the period.

- The risk of severe weather is low, however, heavy rainfall,
  gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Heat indices each day will exceed 100 degrees each day this week for
  areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Warm and muggy conditions in Middle Tennessee continue into the rest
of this week. Tonight, patchy fog will once again be possible on the
Cumberland Plateau, as it has been the past week or so. Wednesday,
some CAMs are showing some morning showers moving west to east
around 6am along and north of I-40 so we will have to watch for some
early morning precipitation. With this early convection, the same
CAMs are not showing much in the way of afternoon thunderstorms.
However, guidance has been struggling to accurately depict the
coverage (or outright existence) of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms. As long as this pattern continues, diurnal showers
and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility. Heat indices on
Wednesday could get up to just under heat advisory criteria, so
while it is not likely at this time that one will be issued,
remember to stay hydrated and stay cool if working or doing anything
outside in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Biggest concern the next few days is heat indices, as there are
afternoons towards the end of the week when they could flirt with
110 degrees. Most likely scenario is 100 to 105 degrees, with the
higher end values being more likely west of I-24. We`re actively
monitoring the situation for a possible heat advisory, but at this
time, just remember heat safety and recognize the signs of heat
illness.

Second biggest concern is with these diurnal storms, while severe
weather risk is low, hazardous weather could still occur. This
includes heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flooding,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds. If you`re spending any time
outdoors the next week, make sure you have a plan to keep yourself
safe in case a storm surprises you while you`re outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions to prevail for most of this forecast run. KSRB and
KCSV may observe some fog; however, with cirrus moving through
from decaying storms, that may limit radiational cooling and
therefore fog. Did go with a more optimistic forecast. Tomorrow,
isolated to scattered storms once again forecast in the afternoon.
Included a PROB30 at KSRB and KCSV. Was not confident enough to
put TSRA into other TAF sites but may need to eventually. Light
winds to continue, picking up to 6-8 kts during daylight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  96  77  96 /  20  40  10  30
Clarksville    75  93  75  94 /  30  20  10  20
Crossville     68  88  69  88 /  10  40  30  50
Columbia       74  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
Cookeville     71  90  72  90 /  10  40  20  50
Jamestown      70  89  71  88 /  10  40  30  60
Lawrenceburg   73  93  74  93 /  10  20  10  20
Murfreesboro   74  95  75  95 /  10  30  10  30
Waverly        73  93  74  94 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Husted