136
FXUS61 KBGM 140738
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
338 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few scattered showers will move across the region this
evening, followed by the next round of rain and possibly weak
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Rain will linger into
Wednesday before high pressure builds in Thursday and Friday
with generally drier and warmer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any remaining showers should clear out by midnight along with
any thunder chances. Lowered pops a bit with the late evening
update. Previous discussion below.

Given recent trends, limited any thunder mention to isolated at
best through the evening hours. One heavier batch of showers
should translate from Syracuse to the Utica hours through about
8pm dropping a tenth to quarter inch of precipitation. Forecast
discussion below largely on track.

253 PM update...

Main concerns in the near term are centered around the weak,
scattered showers and storms possible later this afternoon and
into the early evening hours, mainly over central NY...and the
next round of showers and storms expected to develop Tuesday
afternoon, again north of the NY/PA border. The Tuesday
convection will linger into Tuesday night and spread south into
PA.

Earlier today, a weak warm front lifted north/newd across the
region this morning and brought a broken area of rain showers
that are currently tapering off in the Catskills and into the
southern Adirondacks. A secondary area of precipitation is
breaking out over western NY and is currently pushing into the
central Southern Tier of NY. The warm front to the north and east
has left behind a slightly more unstable air mass with around
50-100 J/kg of ML CAPE, and with some steeper low level lapse
rates starting to push in from the southwest, and a broad area
of warm air advection amidst a passing weak upper s/w, the
threat for a few weak thunderstorms exists into this evening.
Severe weather is not anticipated.

This weak upper level feature will roll to the east this
evening and with the combination of the loss of instability
after sunset, the threat for convection should diminish after 9
PM. The warm front to the north will remain situated north of
the NY Thruway tonight, and keep all of the forecast area in a
relatively mild air mass. Temperatures will only drop into the
lower 50s for tonight, and there could be some clearing, but we
will likely keep mostly a layer of mid and high clouds through
the night.

The warm front to the north will transition to a cold front and
drop southward on Tuesday morning slowly across the region.
There will likely be some showers develop along the Thruway late
Tuesday morning and also an area of convection blossom over PA
by the early afternoon as an upper wave over the TN valley lifts
into the mid Atlantic region. The overall air mass will remain
unstable through the rest of the day and into Tuesday night as
the cold front stalls across the region and focuses scattered
showers and storms throughout the area. The air mass is expected
to be quite rich with a ribbon of PWs up to 1.3 inches along
the front. The large-scale forcing for ascent should be rather
weak, so hydro/flooding concerns should be limited. Rainfall
amounts will range from 0.5 to 1 inch at the most from Tuesday
through Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update...

An exiting low pressure system south of the forecast area will
maintain light rain showers Wednesday night through Thursday. We
begin to see a decrease in rain showers heading into Thursday
night as weak ridging pushes up into the forecast area. This
will be a short-lived break before the next system moves into
the area Friday late afternoon. Southwesterly flow allows for a
warming trend, with temperatures recovering into the low- to
mid-70s from the mid- to high-60s that will occur on Wednesday.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday across the
Finger Lakes and northern Central NY region is possible, but
will most likely be non-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
335 AM Update...

The next system drags a large cold front across our forecast
area on Saturday, dropping high temperatures back down into the
mid- to high-60s with rain showers. After Saturday, long-term
model guidance is all over the place for what may happen. The
ECMWF has the driest solution, with Central NY and NE PA
remaining mainly dry heading into the early week. The GFS and
Canadian models both have a solution where the main core of the
system impacting our area through the early week with continuous
rain showers and afternoon chances for thunderstorms. For now,
we went with the wetter solutions, until there is a better trend
of solutions that show a drier scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through at least 18Z tomorrow at all
terminals. There is a very low chance of fog at ELM given that
the winds have become calm but strong winds just above the
surface should allow for mixing at times so did not put fog in
to the TAF. Tomorrow, showers and possibly thunderstorms form in
the afternoon across much of the area. Better chances of rain
hold off until after 0Z but SYR, ITH, and RME have a bit more
instability so showers and thunderstorms could get going around
20Z to 22Z but confidence on location of showers and storms is
low so no restrictions have been added.

Low level wind shear is possible tonight at KRME. 2k ft winds
are southwest at 30 kts with surface winds east at 6 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible
embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR
restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate
to high confidence

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night
into Saturday with showers and storms and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG