Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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659 FXUS61 KRLX 110708 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 308 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather for the weekend. More showers and a few storms expected again this afternoon. Temperatures will climb to average or above starting Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Saturday... Key Points: * Fog will linger an hour or two past sunrise. * A line of showers and storms is expected late morning through mid-afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail are possible, but severe weather is not expected. Areas of fog with visibility down to 1/2 mile or less in spots has developed across much of WV and our VA counties, but is patchy or not occurring across most of our OH and KY counties at this time. Some further expansion of the fog is possible, but high clouds moving in from ILN`s area may help stunt that growth. Fog should break up by 8am or 9am for most of the area, with some fair-weather cumulus possible to develop by late morning as diurnal heating kicks into gear. A front pushing in from the west is forecast to bring a distinct band of showers and a few thunderstorms across the area today. The current forecast, which didn`t change much from the previous one, has it reaching our furthest NW counties by mid- morning, crossing the Ohio River around noon, and reaching the eastern mountains by mid-afternoon. Some showers may linger up against the mountains into the early evening hours, but should tend to dissipate in the hour or to after sunset. Models are indicating 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE, a bit less than that of ML CAPE, and a wet bulb 0C level around 7-8kft, so some sustained convection and small hail will be possible with the stronger cells. With some mid-level dry air and potential DCAPE of 250-500 J/kg, some gusty winds are possible as well. However, some very strong winds above 500mb/6km may shear off storms that try to grow above that level, so we may be looking at mostly low-topped convection with this line. Winds ahead of the line and front will be SW`ly, and may get a bit gusty this afternoon, with gusts of 15-25kts possible. Behind the front, winds shift W`ly and remain gusty initially, but should calm down tonight for most locations outside of the mountains. Much of the area will be about 5 degrees warmer than Friday, but still a bit below normal, with lower elevation highs from the mid-60s to around 70 degrees. A bit more mild tonight, with forecast lows in the 40s for the lowlands, and upper 30s to lower 40s for the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Friday... Remaining precipitation largely exits to the east by daybreak Sunday. Ridging building into the region then yields mainly dry conditions through the day Monday amidst a warm-up. Deep southwesterly flow associated with the next southern stream system will begin to advect moisture back into the region Monday afternoon but any precipitation is expected to hold off until Monday night && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Friday... Upper level forcing in the form of an upper low emerging from the Central Rockies arrives Monday night into early Tuesday morning yielding an uptick in precipitation coverage. The risk for severe storms through this period appears low given limited opportunity for surface heating and poor mid-level lapse rates. As flow weakens Tuesday night into Wednesday, could see some slower moving storm cores that could present a risk for some localized water issues, and WPC has painted a marginal risk for this over the region. Broader scale, but still transient ridging returns Thursday with any lingering risk for showers and storms becoming primarily diurnally driven. The next synoptically driven chance of precipitation arrives late Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM Saturday... Fog has developed for most valley locations along and east of I-77/US119, and is patchy west of there but gradually expanding. However, with some high clouds moving in from the west, not sure if the fog will quite make it to HTS. IFR or LIFR flight conditions are expected for the areas impacted by fog. With sunrise around 1020Z this morning, the TAFs have fog dissipating for most by 12z or 1230z for most terminals, but some pockets may hold on longer. The other main aviation concern this TAF period will be for the line of showers and a few thunderstorms that will cross the area between late morning and late afternoon, ahead of and with a cold front crossing the area. Some gusty winds and small hail will be possible with this activity, and breezy SW`ly winds ahead of the front will shift W`ly once it passes. Gusts outside of t-storm activity could reach around 20kts at some TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of visibility and/or ceiling restrictions overnight with fog/stratus may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY is possible on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JP NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...FK