885
FXUS64 KSHV 152230
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
530 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure at the sfc is centered directly across the heart of
the region this afternoon, providing for light and variable winds
and very warm temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s. With the
exception of some thin high clouds, mostly sunny skies continue to
dominate and help to propel the very warm afternoon temperatures.
As the evening and overnight progresses, look for additional cloud
cover to expand into the region from the west due to moistening W
to SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, the sfc high will shift farther east
and allow for a light S/SE flow to prevail. As a result, overnight
low temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to last night with
a range of 60s areawide.

By daybreak on Thursday, an advancing upper-level trough will be
ejecting from the Desert SW toward the TX Big Bend country with
showers and thunderstorms increasing across much of TX. Expect
this convection to rapidly expand eastward into our region by the
afternoon and especially into Thursday evening/overnight through
Friday morning along an advancing lead shortwave. Some additional
shower and thunderstorm activity will likely follow through Friday
afternoon and evening as the primary trough axis pivots overhead.
This could bring as much as 2-4 inches of total event rainfall to
areas mainly south of Interstate 20, prompting the issuance of a
Flood Watch for areas generally along and south of Jacksonville,
TX to Monroe, LA from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.
In addition, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
through this timeframe with damaging wind gusts as the primary
threat.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

As the trough axis gradually shifts east of the region during the
day on Saturday, any lingering light rain should rapidly come to
an end with dry weather expected to prevail through the remainder
of the weekend into early next week. An upper-level ridge will be
expanding across much of the southern CONUS and push temperatures
even higher into the upper 80s and lower 90s from Saturday through
the remainder of the extended period early next week.

In fact, mid 90s cannot entirely be ruled out by the early to
middle part of next week with an unseasonably strong upper-level
ridge building NE from old Mexico into the South Central and SE
CONUS. As a result, rain chances will be quite slim to none with
a welcome opportunity to dry out after a fairly wet period during
the first half of May. Unfortunately, we could also be looking at
heat indices surging above 100 degrees with these temperatures
combined with the increasing humidity from southerly flow.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

For the 16/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected to continue
through most of the period until 16/20Z as VCTS/SHRA begins to
enter NE Texas airspace and affect western terminals with MVFR
vis/cigs or lower through the end of the period. Light
southeasterly winds will also prevail through the period. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  87  68  83 /   0  50  90  30
MLU  63  88  65  83 /   0  20  90  50
DEQ  62  83  63  81 /   0  20  70  50
TXK  64  86  66  83 /   0  20  80  40
ELD  62  87  64  82 /   0  10  80  50
TYR  68  83  67  83 /   0  70  70  20
GGG  67  84  66  83 /   0  70  80  20
LFK  68  84  67  85 /  10  90  80  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
     LAZ010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
     TXZ149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...16