625
FXUS64 KSHV 110148
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
848 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Tweaked a few overnight lows and added a slight chance for showers
in eastern Texas for the overnight and a touch in the day ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 820 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A shield of clouds is currently over eastern TX and getting over many
western Parishes in LA. Air temps are cooling down quickly with a
good spread and a light N wind for many locales. The NWS radar
mosaics are showing some light rain showers from near DFW metro
down across Toledo Bend country in TX/LA. Central TX sfc obs are
showing some drizzle or light showers just a county or two over
and headed this way quickly at 60KTs on the brisk winds in the
mid levels.

So at the most, we will see the mid and high clouds interfere
with any shot of seeing the Aurora down here even from a super
dark spot away from city lights. The clouds act to spread the
distant city light from nearby compared to a beautiful dark clear
sky. So, Geomagnetic storm interests may have a better look from
Arkansas and the drive would make a difference. No chance along
and south of I-20 under the mid and high clouds. At any rate this
light rainfall will likely not measure except for an isolated
spot or two that manages to get under some of the thicker
middeck, like Natchitoches right now sporting a light shower dot.
(What?? I may have to update my update unless that goes away) Too
far east already, but maybe sprinkles may be all anyone sees with
a really good spread on temp and dew point over E TX and our
Parishes. Our latest balloon sounding shows dry air from the
ground up to 600mb and then 600-300mb is seeing quite a bit more
RH, nearing saturation even in a couple of spots at altitude.
/24/



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Active and wet weather returns through the rest of the weekend and
through most of next week across the Four State Region. This is
due to a quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of
slower troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern
Mexico and the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances
will arrive late Sunday into most of Monday, then a break in
activity precedes the next round of activity is expected late
Wednesday into early Friday. Day 1-7 QPF values continue to trend
wetter with widespread 3-5 inch totals expected and isolated
higher amounts not out of the question (especially with rainfall
expected later next week). Temperature maximums/minimums will be
moderated by this activity as a result, remaining in the low-to-
mid 80s/upper 60s. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR flight condition should prevail for the next 24 hours.
However, mid and high level cloud cover will be increasing from
west to east. Otherwise, northeasterly winds should persist but
may veer to a more easterly direction during the daytime hours of
Saturday.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  84  67  78 /   0  10  10  40
MLU  58  83  65  79 /   0  10   0  20
DEQ  54  83  60  79 /   0  10   0  20
TXK  57  84  64  79 /   0  10  10  20
ELD  54  83  61  78 /   0  10   0  20
TYR  62  82  65  76 /  20  20  20  60
GGG  60  82  64  76 /  20  20  20  50
LFK  63  83  65  78 /  20  10  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09