Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 230536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
136 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High pressure centered over Ontario Province will maintain chilly
and mainly dry weather through the weekend, with just a few
scattered light snow showers possible southeast and east of Lake
Ontario overnight and Friday as a weak disturbance passes through
aloft. Temperatures will then finally climb back to more normal
levels early next week as persistent deep troughing over the
Northeast moves off the east coast.


Strong Canadian high pressure over Northern Manitoba and
Ontario Provinces will build southeastward toward James
Bay...with low-level ridging strengthening across the Central
Great Lakes and for the most part maintaining fair/chilly and
largely dry weather across our region. The one exception to this
will be southeast and east of Lake Ontario overnight and into
Friday...when the combination of modest cooling aloft from a
passing weak mid level trough and a continued northwesterly
upslope flow may be just enough to generate some widely
scattered light snow showers. While some chance PoPs remain in
play to cover these...these have been delayed...lowered...and
also shortened in duration from continuity to account for the
extremely dry antecedent airmass...only marginally cold
temperatures aloft...and the strong late March diurnal
influences we will again experience during Friday...all factors
that should keep any such activity weak/light and transient in
nature. With this in mind...expect any accums from the snow
showers to be on the order of a half inch or less...and mainly
confined to late tonight and early Friday morning. Otherwise
lows tonight will range through the 20s...with highs on Friday
again primarily in the lower to mid 30s.


In general, the weekend looks to be dry with below normal temperatures.
An upper level trough will remain near New England during the
period, which will maintain a cool northerly component flow
across our region over the weekend.

On Friday night, any lingering snow showers or flurries south and
east of Lake Ontario should quickly taper off with the departure of
a shortwave embedded in the upper level flow. Colder air will build
in behind this, with consensus 850mb temperatures down to -15C by
Saturday night. The air mass is very dry, so this probably will
mainly result in lake effect clouds. This also will result in well
below normal temperatures for Saturday and Saturday night. Highs
will only be in the lower to mid 30s with lows Saturday night
ranging from the teens to lower 20s.

High pressure across southern Quebec will ridge into our region
Sunday and Sunday night. This will result in dry weather with quite
a bit of sunshine for Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will
be a bit warmer, but will still remain below normal through the
end of the weekend.


The next work week will start with full sunshine as high pressure at
both the surface and aloft is found over the eastern Great Lakes
region. Strong subsidence will bring a prolonged period of clear
skies Monday into Tuesday.

Through the day Tuesday we will see mid and high level clouds build
across the region as moisture increases behind the surface high
pressure. From a west coast trough two shortwaves will cross the
Plains and head eastward next week, with timing and placement of
these shortwaves still in question. There will be a chance for
mainly rain showers Tuesday night through Thursday as these
shortwaves and corresponding surface reflected waves approach.

With the trough of cooler air likely to remain to our west through
the period...surface temperatures starting cool Monday morning will
climb to near to above normal Tuesday through Thursday. This will
place highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Winds
will likely be light Tuesday, but by Wednesday and Thursday areas
immediately east and northeast of the Great Lakes will likely be
cooler vs. inland areas owing to wind coming over the cold lake


Low clouds have formed southeast of Lake Erie late tonight and
KJHW is on the border of VFR/MVFR. Elsewhere...VFR conditions
continue. A disturbance is approaching the eastern Great Lakes
overnight. The increase in moisture will result in low clouds
forming mainly southeast of Lake Ontario and continue southeast
of Lake Erie. A few snow showers are possible however dry
conditions will keep them widely scattered. Localized MVFR
conditions expected through Friday.

Friday night...Mainly VFR.
Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.


Northwest winds will continue to diminish overnight and into
Friday. Small Craft Advisory was canceled as waves subside as
well. Winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory
levels through Saturday.





LONG TERM...Thomas
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