Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260206
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1006 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like warm and humid weather is in store for the long
weekend as high pressure sets up off the East Coast. The influx
of humidity will lead to an almost-daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms, especially across the southern half of the state.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Keeping slgt-low chc pops going for portions of the Laurel
Highlands overnight as shortwave cresting the upper ridge
inducing inverted sfc trof and pooling PW to 1.66" just south of
the Mason Dixon line could produce a brief shower over the next
several hours. Radar showing several showers over central
WV and western VA as well as approaching Pittsburgh late this
evening.

Otherwise, fair weather expected elsewhere overnight. Mins will
be mild with the dewpoints climbing. Some fog is possible again
in the morning in the deeper northern valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Sat should be almost as warm as Friday, but more clouds will
likely hold temps down a deg or two comparatively. The N and E
have the best chance to stay just as warm. Humidity will
increase everywhere. Dewpoints may approach 70F in the far SE.
CAPEs reach above 1000J/kg, and NAM has got some points near
2000J/kg in the aftn. A weak low-level cap will probably delay
shower development until after noon, but it should mix out
easily. Thunder is a given with numbers like that. Shear is poor
and strongest wind in the lowest 15kft is about 20kts in the
aftn. Therefore, wind damage is unlikely. Wet bulb zero is also
sky high. So, hail not a problem Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night into Sunday will see unsettle weather continue.
However the upper level trough will shift to the east which will
shift the flow to the NW. This will allow for slightly drier
conditions. However, with ample low level moisture there is
still a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though
the best chance will be along the Mason Dixon line. The weak
flow aloft on Sunday should limit Sunday afternoon convection to
pulse storms. A ridge building into the mid west could tamp
down moisture further. So have lowered precipitation chances on
but there remains a chance for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and early evening. Memorial Day
looks to be slightly cooler but humid.

The wet and humid trend for the region will continue through
next week with chances for precipitation through the latter half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT VFR cloud deck over the south central mtns is the only
place a small showers may briefly pop up. VFR will continue
elsewhere. Have mentioned VCSH in some of the srn TAFs for the
late evening and part of the night. Valley fog is again possible
across the north as the dewpoints are rising, but the sky may
stay mostly clear. However, any restrictions due to fog would be
limited to a brief time at any of the terminals. Have not
mentioned T in the TAFs for now.

High pressure off-shore will pump the temps and humidity up
again Sat and Sun. The likelihood of TS/SHRA increases on Sat
and Sun. The more-likely places will be the southern half of the
state. But, a stray shower is still possible in the north.
Timing the convection will be difficult without a clear forcing
mechanism. It may seem like we are in the Deep South for a few
days with airmass/pop-up storms commonplace there in the summer.


Outlook...

Sun-Wed...Mainly VFR with scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
It has been a wet May across much of the region.

As of Midnight, Williamsport rainfall for the month
has been 7.05 inches. This is the 6th wettest May on
record, and we still have a few days to add to the total.
The wettest May was 1919 with 9.91 inches of rainfall.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Ceru
AVIATION...Dangelo
CLIMATE...


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