Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
857 PM MST Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...On Saturday, strong winds and low humidity will
combine to produce critical fire weather conditions across the
majority of northern Arizona. Look for afternoon humidity in the
teens to single digits, with wind gusts in the 35 to 45 mph
range. Expect dry conditions and much slower winds from Sunday
through at least Tuesday. A warming trend starts Monday.


.DISCUSSION...Model continuity is very good through Wednesday
night. The upper low currently centered over central California
to drift eastward into Utah by Saturday night. This pattern will
bring increasing winds speeds at all levels to northern Arizona
tonight and these winds to stick around through Saturday evening.

Look for fair weather tonight across the northland. Surface winds
likely to remain light south-southwest as the upper low inches

On Saturday, surface wind speeds should be increasing by mid
morning across the area, and by afternoon sustained S-SW winds
25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are forecast. The fastest winds
are expected across Navajo and Apache counties, and a Wind
Advisory is in effect for the northeast quarter of the state
Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions expand (due
to larger area of 20+ mph winds) to cover the majority of northern
Arizona, and a Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon to 7
PM MST. This warning is for all areas except northern Gila County
and the lower terrain of Yavapai County. Afternoon humidities to
be in the single digits for much of the area. There may be some
expansion of the Wind Advisory and/ or Red Flag areas, stay

Wind speeds to diminish Saturday evening, with a very cool night
in store for the high country.

On Sunday, the low begins to fill while it lingers over the Great
Basin. This will bring much slower wind speeds to the northland,
but critically dry conditions remain. Daytime max temperatures
will dip to near normal for late May.

Early next week, the upper low lifts to the northeast bringing a
warming trend and a continuation of low relative humidities.
Afternoon wind speeds to be at are just below normal for this time
of year through at least Tuesday.

Another round of strong winds is possible Thursday and or Friday,
but confidence is low.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the
24 hour TAF forecast period. Sfc winds sw5-15g20kts overnight
becmg sw15-25g30-45kts from 18Z-02Z tomorrow. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Look for dry, windy and warm weather on Saturday.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect Saturday from Noon to 7 pm MST for
Apache, Navajo, and Coconino counties, along with the higher terrain
of Yavapai County. On Sunday, much lighter winds are in store, along
with slightly cooler temperatures and continued dry conditions.

Monday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions
are anticipated. Expect generally light southwest diurnal breezes on
Monday and Tuesday, with increasing southwest winds on Wednesday.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7
PM MST Saturday FOR Azz104>117- 138>140.

Wind Advisory from noon to 7 PM MST Saturday FOR Azz006>014-039-




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