Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240440 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1140 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Updated for 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 914 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

UPDATE...Evening update.

At 9PM...Temperatures are mild across the Mid-South with readings
in the middle 50s to middle 60s and overcast skies. Some quick
moving showers, associated with a weak impulse, were noted on
radar mainly near the Tennessee River on the north side of a
surface warm front. Short term Hi-res models are in good agreement
with showers residing near the warm front through the overnight
hours. As a result, went ahead and trimmed back POPs across much
of the southern half of the Mid-South through tomorrow morning.

The rest of the forecast is on track with temperatures remaining
mild overnight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front
over portions of Central Arkansas and into Central and Southern
Mississippi. Skies are mostly cloudy to cloudy across the Mid-
South with KNQA WSR-88D showing some light returns near the MO/KY
border. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range
from the upper 50s to middle 60s across portions of West Tennessee
and Middle 60s to lower 70s elsewhere across the area including
the Memphis metro area.

A warm front is expected to move north across the Mid-South
tonight bringing isolated to scattered rain chances to the area.
A surface low is expected to move across Southern Missouri on
Saturday and towards the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night. Short
term models indicate some rain showers with perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm or two will be possible during the day Saturday with
the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms along a
trailing cold front Saturday evening. Overall upper level support
will remain weak with this system while some instability will be
present late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Overall
QPF amounts are expected to remain light with this system.

Long term models indicate upper level flow will transition to
southwest flow aloft next week. Several shortwaves embedded within
the upper level flow will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley
resulting in chances for rain with an occasional thunderstorm,
especially through the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe.
Heavy rainfall is possible during this period. A cold front is
expected to bring an end to the rain chances by Thursday night.



06Z TAFs

VFR to continue into the early overnight, followed by a likely
MVFR deck toward morning. Daytime mixing should hold ceilings
mostly steady or allow some improvement toward late morning. IFR
doesn`t appear likely given the turbulent mixing from the
relatively strong winds on Saturday.




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