Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 272132
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 PM PDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Other than a few leftover rain showers in west central Nevada and
the Sierra, dry conditions with a warming trend are expected for
the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. Even warmer
temperatures are expected Tuesday, then another weather system
will bring some cooling with increased winds and a chance for
showers and thunderstorms later in the week. The first weekend of
June looks to be dry and warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

We are seeing much drier conditions around the region today, as
the low pressure moves out of the region. The low pressure is
still over Utah and eastern Nevada, keeping some clouds and a few
isolated light showers in Mono County. A few showers will
continue through the evening hours, but overall we should see
clouds breaking up after the sun goes down. The low pressure
continues to slowly wobble out of the area tomorrow, bringing
another several degrees of warming for Memorial Day. Looks like a
beautiful Memorial Day overall, with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures in the 80s across western Nevada and 70s in the
Sierra and northeast California.

As we go into Tuesday, the the ridge will further increase the
temperatures over our area with highs into the upper 80s for
western Nevada. Afternoon zephyr breezes will kick in Tuesday
afternoon, which will bring a chance of isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the favored convergence zones over Mono-Mineral
and Lassen-northern Washoe counties.

Low pressure starts to move into the Pac NW coast on Wednesday
bringing increasing winds to the region with gusts up to 30 mph.
This trough will also bring better lift ahead of the trough with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon-evening. The main locations expected for storm
development will be south of I-80 and in far northern Lassen and
northern Washoe counties. We`ll have to keep an eye on Wednesday
late afternoon and evening for potential for strong thunderstorms
in these areas due to the increase in instability and shear as
the right entrance region of the jet moves over west-central
Nevada. -Hoon

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...

The overall thinking has changed very little for the extended
portion of the forecast...but there were a few minor changes. The
deterministic models are still bringing the next trough through
Thursday into early Friday...but they are slowing it just a bit and
starting to show signs of it briefly closing off over southern
Nevada Friday morning. That is a little too far southeast to greatly
affect our forecast area...but if this trend continues we may be
dealing with another period of a bit more rain Thursday night. For
now we will just show a slight increase in the POPs and QPF for
Thursday over northeast California and northwest Nevada and from
Mono County northeast through Mineral County to southeast Churchill
County.

By late Friday that trough is well to the east and another is shown
moving toward the Pacific Northwest. This is too far north to affect
our area with any convection...but this could lead to slightly
stronger winds by Saturday. The winds for Saturday were increased
slightly. That would also lead to better mixing and a little warmer
temperatures for Saturday.

By Sunday the trough edges into the Pacific Northwest and we see
lower heights creep into our forecast area. This should mean
slightly cooler temperatures...but still near seasonal norms...when
compared to Saturday. We currently do not have any showers or
thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...

The presence of a broad upper level trough near the NV/UT border
this evening will mean a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms in central NV. There could also be a few showers along
the Sierra Crest late today and early this evening...but the overall
flow should push most of this development off the crest to the
southwest.

Fog is likely again tonight in the Martis Valley at KTRK while most
other areas will dry out enough to limit fog development. KTRK
should be the only terminal with less than VFR conditions.

A few showers are possible again along the Sierra Crest in Mono
County Monday...but they would be fewer than today. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms in central Nevada is lower Monday as well.

Ridging builds briefly for Tuesday before another trough of low
pressure moves toward the forecast area Wednesday. This trough is
likely to bring stronger surface winds for Wednesday and possibly a
few showers and storms in Mono and Mineral counties.

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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