807
FXUS66 KLOX 182131
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
231 PM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/221 AM.

Very warm conditions will continue today, trending back to around
normal by Friday and changing little into next week. June Gloom
low clouds will return to normal by Friday, with extra gloomy
conditions on tap for early next week. The moderate to strong
northwest winds from previous days will relax later today, but
reform Thursday night and peak Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...18/221 PM.

High confidence that today will be the last of the hottest days
that has stretched on for several days as a prolonged cooling
trend will kick off Thursday.

A late season trough will push into northern California bringing
the relief from the heat as well as unseasonably strong northwest
to west winds across the region by Friday with widespread advisory
level (gusts 30 to 50 mph) winds possible, including many coastal
areas, especially from The Ventura County and points north.
Isolated warning level gusts around 60 mph will be possible for
the interior mountains, especially near the I-5 corridor and for
the Santa Ynez mountains, especially west of San Marcos Pass.
Isolated power outages, downed trees, and increased risk for large
wildfires possible with the strong winds. A wind advisory has
been issued for Thursday through early Friday for southwest Santa
Barbara County with additional advisories likely as we near the
event.

A deepening marine layer will enhance cooling to coastal areas,
bring more widespread low clouds and fog and patchy drizzle
(focused during the morning hours), especially for Los Angeles
County and the Central Coast.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...18/221 PM.

The gusty northwest winds will likely continue into Saturday with
similar concerns to Friday before weakening significantly into
Sunday with further weakening into Monday. Weak troughing will
likely remain in place Sunday through at least Tuesday, supporting
below normal temperatures with seasonably weak onshore winds and
a fairly deep marine layer with night to morning low clouds and
fog. Patchy drizzle will again be possible, especially Saturday
morning as the trough passes just to our north.

&&

.AVIATION...18/1745Z.

At 1657Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was 5700 feet with a maximum temperature of 25 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20%
chance for IFR to MVFR between 09Z and 17Z.

Low confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 10-40% chance for
VFR conds to prevail at any coastal site, but highest chances are
for KSBA and KCMA. Otherwise, flight cat change time may be off by
3 hours, and minimum flight cat may be off by 1 cat.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF after 06Z due to uncertainty in
marine layer clouds. There is a 15% chance for VFR conds to
prevail through the period. Otherwise, arrival of marine layer
clouds may be as early as 05Z or as late at 11Z. There is a 40%
chance for cigs to be as low of 005-009 once cigs are present.
Any east wind component is expected to be less than 6 knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for cigs
005-012 between 09Z and 17Z. However, if cigs arrive, there is a
10% chance for cigs 002-004.

&&

.MARINE...18/154 PM.

High confidence in widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to Gale
Force winds and steep, choppy seas for the Outer Waters and
portions of the Inner Waters through Saturday night, with SCA
winds and seas lingering into Sunday evening. While confidence is
high that Gale Force winds will impact nearshore waters along the
Central Coast, there is also a moderate chance for Gale Force
winds to reach nearshore beaches from Ventura Harbor south to
Point Mugu Thursday through Saturday in the afternoon through
evening hours, with best chances Friday and Saturday.

The Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts
will see SCA level wind gusts in areas such as Malibu, the San
Pedro Channel, and the Western portion of the zone Thursday
through Saturday, with better chances Friday and Saturday.

Sub-advisory conditions look to kick off the early part of next
week across the entire coastal waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday
      for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Thursday for
      zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 6 PM PDT Thursday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect Thursday evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Sunday
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox