Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 181021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
321 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...17/732 PM.

Near to above normal temperatures and onshore flow will continue
through this weekend and into next week, as high pressure
continues to move west. night to morning low clouds will return to
some coastal areas and valleys through Sunday.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/316 AM.

The weekends weather will be dominated by an upper level high that
sits directly over the state. Hgts will be near 595 DM. Max temps
will rise a degree or two both today and tomorrow from the vlys
and inland. Weak onshore flow and a 1200 foot marine layer will
keep max temps mostly unchanged both days. Max temps will be near
normal each day across the coast and near normal today and a
little above normal Sunday for the vlys and inland. Low temps will
be 4 to 8 degrees above normal which explains (along with the
increased humidity) why it feels so warm even though max temps
are near normal.

Low clouds cover the coasts but have made less inroads into the
vlys than ydy. The increased hgts will likely smoosh the clouds
totally out of the vlys Sunday.

There were some mtns build up ydy but there is even less moisture
today and only expect some afternoon cu over the mtns and no
showers. Sunday will have even less moisture and thus even less

A Pac NW trof will brush the top of the state on Monday. The upper
high will slide off to the east and hgts will fall to about 591
DM. Gradients really do not change that much so the marine layer
cloud pattern will be similar to the weekends. The lower hgts will
kick off a cooling trend of 3 to 5 degrees inland and 1 to 2
degrees across the coast.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/321 AM.

A very stagnant forecast pattern sets up next week with the upper
high to the southeast and a weak trof to the NW. Dry NW flow will
be over the state which will preclude any monsoon flow. Max temps
will change little across the coasts where the night through
morning low cloud pattern will continue. The inland areas will
cool some on Tuesday as hgts fall but then will change little for
the rest of the week as the pattern remains static.

The above normal sea sfc temps will continue to bring above normal
humidities and overnight lows.



At 0545Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1200 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 3500 feet with a temperature of 26
degrees Celsius.

Low confidence in most non desert TAFs. Coastal TAFs north of KNTD
have a 30 percent chc of no cigs. Cig arrival time could be off by
2.5 hours. VFR transition could be off by 60 minutes. Good
confidence in TAFs after 18Z

KLAX...Fairly good confidence in TAF. There is a 20 percent chc
of IFR cigs 11Z-15Z. Good confidence that any east wind component
will be under 5 kt. VFR transition should occur within 30 min of

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF through 14Z. There is a 20 percent
chc of no cigs. Cigs could arrive anytime between 10Z and 14Z.
There is a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs 11Z-15Z. Good confidence
that VFR transition should occur within 30 min of fcst.


.MARINE...18/241 AM.

For the Outer Waters, There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of Small
Craft Advisory(SCA)level winds this evening near Point
Conception, increasing to 50 percent chance Sunday night. Winds
are expected to stay below SCA Monday through Wednesday morning.
Than over 50% chance for SCA level winds Wed night into Thu.
Strongest gusts between Point Conception to NW of San Nicolas
Island. PZZ673-676

For the Inner Waters, conditions will likely remain below Small
Craft Advisory level through midweek next week. However there will
be a 20% chance for SCA gusts across the western portion of the
Santa Barbara Channel late this afternoon and evening.

There is a 60 percent chance of patchy fog for areas N of Point
Conception through noon today.

Increased south swell will result in hazardous conditions for
mariners through this evening, particularly near the surf zone.


.BEACHES...18/244 AM.

Elevated surf will continue at Southern California beaches through
this evening as a long-period southerly swell moves across the
coastal waters. Strong rip currents and sneaker waves will be
common, especially across south-facing beaches.

Moderate to strong rip currents and sneaker waves could linger
into Sunday as the southerly swell will be slow to diminish.
Swimmers and anyone in the surf zone should remain vigilant
through the weekend.


CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this evening for
      zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).



No significant hazards expected.



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