


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
807 FXUS66 KLOX 182131 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 231 PM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS...18/221 AM. Very warm conditions will continue today, trending back to around normal by Friday and changing little into next week. June Gloom low clouds will return to normal by Friday, with extra gloomy conditions on tap for early next week. The moderate to strong northwest winds from previous days will relax later today, but reform Thursday night and peak Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...18/221 PM. High confidence that today will be the last of the hottest days that has stretched on for several days as a prolonged cooling trend will kick off Thursday. A late season trough will push into northern California bringing the relief from the heat as well as unseasonably strong northwest to west winds across the region by Friday with widespread advisory level (gusts 30 to 50 mph) winds possible, including many coastal areas, especially from The Ventura County and points north. Isolated warning level gusts around 60 mph will be possible for the interior mountains, especially near the I-5 corridor and for the Santa Ynez mountains, especially west of San Marcos Pass. Isolated power outages, downed trees, and increased risk for large wildfires possible with the strong winds. A wind advisory has been issued for Thursday through early Friday for southwest Santa Barbara County with additional advisories likely as we near the event. A deepening marine layer will enhance cooling to coastal areas, bring more widespread low clouds and fog and patchy drizzle (focused during the morning hours), especially for Los Angeles County and the Central Coast. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...18/221 PM. The gusty northwest winds will likely continue into Saturday with similar concerns to Friday before weakening significantly into Sunday with further weakening into Monday. Weak troughing will likely remain in place Sunday through at least Tuesday, supporting below normal temperatures with seasonably weak onshore winds and a fairly deep marine layer with night to morning low clouds and fog. Patchy drizzle will again be possible, especially Saturday morning as the trough passes just to our north. && .AVIATION...18/1745Z. At 1657Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1500 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 5700 feet with a maximum temperature of 25 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. There is a 20% chance for IFR to MVFR between 09Z and 17Z. Low confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 10-40% chance for VFR conds to prevail at any coastal site, but highest chances are for KSBA and KCMA. Otherwise, flight cat change time may be off by 3 hours, and minimum flight cat may be off by 1 cat. KLAX...Low confidence in TAF after 06Z due to uncertainty in marine layer clouds. There is a 15% chance for VFR conds to prevail through the period. Otherwise, arrival of marine layer clouds may be as early as 05Z or as late at 11Z. There is a 40% chance for cigs to be as low of 005-009 once cigs are present. Any east wind component is expected to be less than 6 knots. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for cigs 005-012 between 09Z and 17Z. However, if cigs arrive, there is a 10% chance for cigs 002-004. && .MARINE...18/154 PM. High confidence in widespread Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to Gale Force winds and steep, choppy seas for the Outer Waters and portions of the Inner Waters through Saturday night, with SCA winds and seas lingering into Sunday evening. While confidence is high that Gale Force winds will impact nearshore waters along the Central Coast, there is also a moderate chance for Gale Force winds to reach nearshore beaches from Ventura Harbor south to Point Mugu Thursday through Saturday in the afternoon through evening hours, with best chances Friday and Saturday. The Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts will see SCA level wind gusts in areas such as Malibu, the San Pedro Channel, and the Western portion of the zone Thursday through Saturday, with better chances Friday and Saturday. Sub-advisory conditions look to kick off the early part of next week across the entire coastal waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 4 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Thursday for zones 645-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 6 PM PDT Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect Thursday evening for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Munroe AVIATION...Lewis MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...RK weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox