968
FXUS66 KLOX 150553
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1053 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/757 PM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog continue for
coasts and most valleys through most of this week. A cooling
trend will develop Tuesday and continue through the middle of the
week when valley highs are only expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...14/755 PM.

***UPDATE***

The marine inversion early this evening was around 1100 ft deep
at LAX and around 1300 ft deep at VBG and should deepen some
overnight. Low clouds remained along or just off the coast this
afternoon and were already expanding along the coast and moving
inland over the coastal plain early this evening. The low clouds
are expected to push a bit further inland into the adjacent vlys
overnight. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies will
prevail thru the night. Breezy to gusty SW to W winds, strongest
over the L.A. County mtns and Antelope Vly foothills, with
isolated gusts to Advisory levels, will slowly diminish overnight.

The current forecast is on track in the short-term and do not
anticipate any zone updates this evening.

***From Previous Discussion***

Mostly low impact weather across the area the next several days.
Interior areas will be feeling much cooler as increasing onshore
flow and a deepening marine layer usher in cooler air off the
ocean. Latest forecast soundings indicate a marine layer depth
around 2000-2500 feet tonight in the LA Basin, then increasing
further to around 3000 feet by Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Interior areas will drop a good 10 degrees from today`s highs as
soon as Tuesday with slower cooling the rest of the week. Most
coastal valleys will top out in the low to mid 80s which is 5-10
degrees below normal, with daily morning low clouds and fog.

The only uncertainty in the forecast is with the potential for
some monsoon showers by around Thursday. Ensemble solutions and
deterministic runs have both been trending less favorable for
monsoon conditions across southwest California. Thursday would be
the best chance but moisture is pretty minimal despite a
moderately favorable upper level pattern from the southeast. Will
continue to monitor but for now the forecast is only indicating
around a 10 percent change of showers and storms across the eastern
LA County mountains and AV.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...14/140 PM.

Once again a mostly low impact forecast weather pattern through
early next week. Friday is another day of possible monsoon
moisture but LA County remains on the far western periphery of it
so chances for any mountain/AV showers or storms remains at
around 10%.

Otherwise, a slow warming trend due to weakening onshore flow will
begin Friday with 1-3 degrees of warming each day through about
Sunday then leveling off there through early next week with
temperatures within a few degrees of normal. The marine layer will
start to shrink away from the valleys but remain near the coast
through the period where the warming trend will be much more
gradual.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0514Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4200 feet with a max temperature of 25 C.

For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF.

There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB 12Z-16Z.

Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of
flight category changes could be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a
30 percent chc of 1 to 3 hours of SCT conds in the afternoon for
sites with no clearing fcst.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category
changes could be of by +/- minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of
SCT conds 20Z-23Z. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of low clouds may occur
any time between 0730Z and 0930Z. SCT-SKC conds could arrive as
early as 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/818 PM.

Overall, tonight through Saturday winds and seas are expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the
coastal waters. From Friday night through Saturday, there is a 20%
chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/CS
SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox