Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 022349
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
449 PM PDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...02/157 PM.

Coast and valley low clouds and fog will persist during the night
and morning hours through about the middle of next week.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail along with breezy
onshore flow and below normal temperatures. A significant warm up
is possible late next week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...02/153 PM.

Some Low clouds lingered along parts of the Central Coast early
this afternoon. The low clouds should mostly dissipate thru late
today. Otherwise, sunny skies will prevail thru the afternoon
across the forecast area. There will be good onshore pressure
gradients this afternoon (NAM fcst +9.0 mb LAX-DAG at 00Z) which
will support breezy to gusty SW-NW winds across much of the
region. SW winds in the Antelope Vly could gust to near Advisory
levels at times this afternoon. Temps this afternoon are
expected to be several degrees below normal for most areas. Highs
in the warmest vlys should reach the mid to upper 80s except lower
90s for the far interior vlys and Antelope Vly, while coastal
areas should have highs from the mid 60s to low 70s at the beaches
to the 70s to around 80 inland.

A broad upper level trof over the E Pac is forecast to gradually
move into CA thru Sun then persist over the region through
Tue. H5 heights over swrn CA are expected to fall from 583-587
dam this afternoon to about 580-584 dam from N to S for Sun into
Independence Day then increase to 584-586 dam on Tue. A broad and
dry SW flow aloft will persist over the fcst area thru the
period.

The marine inversion depth is not expected to change much tonight
thru Tue and should be in the 1500-2000 ft range for the most
part. Low clouds and fog are forecast to affect most of the coast
and some vlys night and morning hours tonight thru Tue. The low
clouds should be somewhat minimal over the SBA County S coast
thanks to northerly canyon winds. Otherwise, mostly clear skies
can be expected across SW CA thru the period.

Temps Sun thru Tue will be several degrees below normal in all
areas, with Sun the coolest day. The warmest vlys are expected to
have highs generally in the 80s, with coastal areas in the 60s and
70s.

The good onshore flow will persist as well, with breezy to gusty
SW-NW winds for many areas, strongest in the deserts. The current
and persistent weather pattern is also ideal for gusty Advisory-
level sundowner winds over the southwestern SBA County coast and
mtns each evening. The 18Z 3km WRF was forecasting wind gusts up
to 50 mph or more in this area each evening through Mon. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for tonight for the western Santa Ynez Mtns
and southwestern SBA County coast, with additional Advisories
likely for these areas over the next few evenings.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...02/151 PM.

The GFS and EC mean ensembles are in good agreement compared to
the deterministic, especially late in the extended period. The
broad upper level trof will continue over CA Wed. The trof will
weaken on Thu as an upper level ridge starts to build into srn CA
from the E. Significant upper level ridging will build into the
area Fri and Sat, with H5 heights increasing to near 593-595 dam
Fri and to near 594-596 dam Sat.

The marine layer pattern will continue Wed with varying amounts
of night and morning low clouds and fog along the coast and into
some of the adjacent vlys. The extent of the low clouds will
decrease Wed night into Thu morning, then the upper level ridge
should lower the marine inversion enough Thu night through Sat
morning to greatly minimize any low cloud development along the
coast. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail thru the
extended period.

Temps are expected to be a little warmer Wed but remain several
degrees below normal across the region. Temps will increase
further to near normal Thu, especially for inland areas, and to
significantly above normal levels away from the coast Fri and Sat,
with the warmest day on Sat. Highs in the warmest vlys should
reach well into the 90s to around 100 on Fri, and into the mid 90s
to near 103 on Sat, with cooler 70s and 80s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...02/2348Z.

At 2345 at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3000 feet with a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs, low to moderate confidence in all
other TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2
hours. TAF sites with MVFR cigs may lower to IFR, and sites with
IFR may only form as low as MVFR. There is a 20% chance of MVFR
cigs at KSBA late tonight. There is a 30% chance of high IFR-low MVFR
cigs AT KVNY from 12Z-16Z. There is a 20% chance of LIFR conds at
KSMX.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. While cigs are likely
to develop late tonight into early Sunday morning, there is some
uncertainty of timing and departure of low clouds and 30% chance
of going to IFR category instead of MVFR. An eddy circulation is
expected to develop a SE-E wind component late tonight into mid
morning Sunday, but good confidence that it will remain below 8
knots.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Increased chance of brief
cigs 008-012 between 12Z-17Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...02/113 PM.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds
are expected most of the time thru Wed, strongest during the
afternoon/evening hours. There may be a lull in the winds to
below SCA level late Sun night/Mon morning, and winds may be just
below SCA levels across the northern zone (PZZ670) late Mon night
thru Wed.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are
expected during the afternoon/evening hours thru Mon, with a
30-40% chance during the afternoon and evening hours Tue and Wed.

In the SBA Channel, SCA level winds are likely in western
portions of the Channel as well as in and around the northern Channel
Islands during the late afternoon thru late evening hours thru
Wed. In eastern portions of the Channel, there is a 20-30% chance
of SCA conds late each afternoon/evening.

Across the southern inner waters, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level winds across far western portions of the zone during the
late afternoon/evening hours Sun thru Mon, then are more likely
Tue and Wed, especially from near Anacapa Island to the northwest
of Catalina Island.

The gusty winds will generate short-period, choppy seas that will
likely be dangerous to mariners through the entire holiday weekend
and into the middle of next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Gomberg
MARINE...DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox


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