552
FXUS66 KLOX 170144
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
544 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...16/114 PM.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected at times through
Thursday with some breaks in the weather during which little to no
rain will fall. Significant snow accumulations are expected in the
mountains. A period of dry weather is expected Friday through
Sunday before another storm moves in early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...16/530 PM.

***UPDATE***

The Wind Advisory has been cancelled as low-level flow is
subsiding. Other high-wind and winter-weather headlines remain in
effect for the higher elevations.

***From Previous Discussion***

The first in a series of storms has mostly passed through the area
today but not before dropping extremely heavy rain in some areas,
including the Westside of LA where over an inch of rain fell in
one hour this morning. The bulk of this first system has passed
but satellite imagery shows pockets of showers and thunderstorms
over the coastal waters and moving this way. Expecting those to
move through overnight night. Most, if not all, areas will get
some additional rain, and there will likely be brief periods of
heavy rain with possibly an isolated thunderstorm, but additional
rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning are expected to be under
a half inch across at least 90% of the area. However, there is a
5-10% chance that a storm will drop a half inch of rain or
locally more and this could happen just about anywhere except for
the far interior areas. The flood watch has been extended through
midnight tonight to allow time to see how the evening convective
activity develops.

The overnight activity is expected taper off early Tuesday,
however the next storm system is expected to move into the Central
Coast Tuesday afternoon and into southern areas Tuesday night.
This will initiate another period of moderate to locally heavy
rain across the area which will mostly end before dawn Wednesday.
Additional rain amounts of around a half inch are expected on
average with local amounts of 1-1.5" in the foothills and
mountains. This is a much colder system and snow levels are
expected to drop to around 3000 feet by Wednesday morning. While
much of the storm will be done by that time, prevailing northwest
flow may keep showers going on the north facing slopes through the
morning hours Wednesday, and this would include the Grapevine on
interstate 5. During this period 1-3 inches of snow is possible on
the Highway and several more inches over the surrounding
mountains. Anyone planning travel over Interstate 5 (or any
mountain roads) Tuesday night or Wednesday should be prepared for
delays and or closures. Isolated showers in northwest flow are
also possible across SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties
Wednesday. Otherwise, most of the rest of the area should remain
dry through Wednesday evening.

The next system in this storm cycle will roll through from north
to south Thursday. Most of the ensemble solutions are indicating a
half inch of rain or less for coast/valleys and up to an inch in
in the mountains but there are around 20% of the solutions showing
as much as 1-2 inches. Snow levels are a little higher with this
one and it will be a close call for snow on the the Grapevine.
Will re- evaluate this potential in the next couple days.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...16/219 PM.

For the time being most of the ensembles are indicating dry
weather on Friday but confidence drops over the weekend as there
are quite a few members showing rain either Saturday or Sunday or
both. Any rain on Saturday would likely be light but there are
increasing ensemble members showing higher rain rates on Sunday
into Monday. And rain chances continue into the middle of next
week, though it will likely take at least into later this week
before the models get a handle on the timing of each of the
individual waves coming through.

&&

.AVIATION...17/0143Z.

At 0022Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAFs. Behind a cold front,
scattered showers will affect the area, with periodic MVFR conds
when showers occur. There is a 20-30% chance of brief IFR conds in
heavier showers. Otherwise, VFR conds with periodic gusty winds
are expected across the area.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Flight
categories may shift frequently between MVFR to VFR with periodic
showers possible through the period. Low confidence in the timing
of flight category changes. Gusty SW-W winds will begin to
decrease after around 10Z, shifting to the NW. Additional rain is
expected over the site after around 20Z Tue.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Moderate
confidence in improving conditions with flight conds shifting
between MVFR to VFR (confidence in timing of flight category
changes will remain low).

&&

.MARINE...16/138 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Wednesday morning, high confidence in GALE
FORCE westerly winds (with a possible slight lull in wind speeds
late tonight and Tuesday morning). From Wednesday afternoon
through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level westerly winds. SCA level seas will continue through
Friday (peaking on Wednesday). For Friday night and Saturday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday morning,
high confidence in GALE FORCE westerly winds (with a possible
slight lull in wind speeds late tonight and Tuesday morning). From
Wednesday afternoon through Friday, there is a 30-50% chance of
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level westerly winds. SCA level seas
will continue through Thursday night (peaking on Wednesday). For
Friday night and Saturday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence
in GALE FORCE winds. For Tuesday, high confidence in SCA level
southwesterly winds. For Tuesday night through Wednesday morning,
there is a 50-70% chance of GALE FORCE winds. From Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday night, high confidence in SCA level
winds. For Friday through Saturday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels.

&&

.BEACHES...16/138 PM.

A period of very large waves is expected across the coastal waters
today through Friday, with surf generally peaking Tuesday and
Wednesday across west facing beaches. High Surf Advisories and
Beach Hazard Statements are in effect for all coasts, see the
CFWLOX and SRFLOX products for more details.

Elevated high tides as the new moon cycle approaches will coincide
with the arrival of the higher surf and swell. This will bring an
elevated chance of coastal flooding or minor tidal overflows,
especially during the time of the high tides on Tuesday and
Wednesday. A coastal flood advisory may be needed should swell
guidance remain consistent, along with wind- driven factors.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6 PM PST this
      evening for zones 38-344-345-353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch now in effect until midnight PST tonight for
      zones 87-88-348>358-362-366>380-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Friday for zones
      340-346-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning
      for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning in effect from 9 PM Tuesday to 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 353-376-378-379-381-382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 9 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 377-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 2 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
      morning for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Cohen
AVIATION...CMC
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...RM/Ciliberti/RS/RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox