Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 280207
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1007 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to build into the Mississippi and Ohio
River Valleys tonight, and will extend across the region into
Thursday. A warm front will begin to develop across Indiana and Ohio
on Friday into Saturday as southerly flow transports moisture into
the area, leading to the next chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure building
in from the southwest will provide mostly clear skies and
light westerly winds overnight. Nudged temperatures down a bit
from guidance due to efficient radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... The northeastern extent of
surface high pressure will support tranquil weather on Thursday.
Some mid level clouds may develop by the afternoon leading to a
mix of sun and clouds through the day. Forecast highs are in
the 50s with westerly winds around 10-15 mph.

Surface high pressure continues to dominate Thursday night leading
to another calm night. Forecast lows are in the upper 30s. There
could be an increase in clouds later overnight when a weak upper
level disturbance moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Midlevel ridging will develop and nudge E into the OH Vly for the
start of the long term period, prompting broader deep-layer
WAA/theta-e advection and weak isentropic lift. Although the
low/midlevels of the profile will still be somewhat dry and the
layer of better moisture is relatively thin, suppose that a SHRA or
few sprinkles cannot be completely ruled out Friday morning,
especially N of the OH Rvr as this lift quickly translates through
the region.

Much above normal temps are on tap Friday as highs reach into the
lower/mid 60s, with coolest conditions stretching from EC IN through
WC and central OH where cloud cover will be the most widespread
during the daytime. Lows Friday night dip into the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

By late Friday night through Saturday morning, a stronger S/W will
eject E from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the OH Vly, promoting even
stronger lift along the nose of a strengthening LLJ nudging to the
NE through the region. This will allow for much better moisture/mass
convergence to develop/expand, leading to the development of a
narrow corridor of SHRA extending ESE from nrn IL through
nrn/central IN and nrn/central OH by Saturday morning. There appears
to be relatively good agreement in the model suite with regards to
this feature, with only subtle latitudinal variability in the
solutions. Feel confident right now in likely/categorical PoPs for
the nrn half or so of the ILN FA late Friday night through Saturday
morning before slightly drier conditions evolve by afternoon/evening
as the main system pulls E of the region.

This initial wave, upon its departure Saturday evening, should push
the aforementioned boundary S to closer to/S of the OH Rvr as drier
air briefly builds in behind the first sfc wave Saturday night/early
Sunday. This should allow for drier, although perhaps not completely
dry, conditions Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.
However, this boundary will begin to stall and lift back N once
again by Sunday morning/afternoon. This will promote renewed
convective development Sunday afternoon/evening as additional S/W
energy pivots around the broad-scale ridge axis and back into the OH
Vly. This will coincide with more aggressive moisture transport back
N into the region, with PWAT anomalies potentially exceeding 175% of
normal by Sunday night. With all of this, another round of
rain/storms (with some low-end instby being shown on much of the
prevailing guidance) should blossom about Sunday afternoon through
the night. With the steering-layer flow oriented more parallel to
the forcing mechanism (the quasi WNW-ESE oriented baroclinic zone),
the potential for heavy rain and training of convection may evolve
Sunday evening/night and will need to be watched carefully for the
onset of hydro concerns.

We should continue to see a northward pivot in the boundary through
early Monday, with more of the local area becoming situated squarely
in the warm sector of the eastward-moving system, which should eject
through the central plains into the mid MS Rvr Vly by Monday
afternoon. Renewed rain/storm chances will occur once again late
Monday/Monday night with the better forcing and additional lift
spreading E ahead of/along the front, with drier conditions
slow to return during the day Tuesday.

There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this weekend
into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds of rain and
whether the heaviest activity from each "round" moves over the same
areas more than once. Still a bit too far out to isolate one
specific favored area/corridor for heavy rain, but it is mentioned
here for general awareness purposes, especially considering the
anomalous moisture content in the profile and the cumulative effect
of steady/heavy rain as we progress into Monday/Monday night. The
other item will be the potential for a few strong/severe storms late
Monday/Monday night. The overall setup, from a pattern recognition
perspective, certainly suggests that severe storms may develop
in/near the local area if the necessary ingredients come together,
especially in a scenario with a strengthening/deepening sfc low
darting to the NE through the wrn OH Vly. And if a more wide-open
(further north) warm sector is able to develop Monday
afternoon/evening, allowing for a better/more favorably-widespread
LL thermodynamic setup, amidst seasonably strong deep-layer wind
fields, a few strong to severe storms could evolve. As of right now,
the most concerning time period for a few strong to severe storms
may be Monday evening/night, but given the spatial and temporal
uncertainties at these time ranges, did not yet have the confidence
to mention in the HWO. However, if current trends continue, it may
need to be added in subsequent fcst updates.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly clear skies will persist at the terminals overnight.
This tranquil weather pattern will continue through Thursday as
patches of shallow VFR cumulus clouds develop late in the
afternoon. Winds will be out of the west, with the sites
potentially gusting to the 15-20 knot range during the
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday. MVFR ceilings
possible Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...


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