Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 130445

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1145 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Quiet weather is expected tonight and tomorrow due to the
influence of a surface ridge over the northern plains and the
CWA`s location relative to the developing trough over the eastern
CONUS (too far west to be affected by PV anomalies rotating
around a developing closed upper low). Clouds will continue to
clear from northwest to southeast this evening, and temperatures
should fall into the mid-20s tonight. Highs tomorrow will be
similar to or perhaps a few degrees cooler than today, especially
across northeast MO and southwest IL.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday Night through Next Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Surface ridge to build in Tuesday night with winds becoming light
and variable. Ridge then sinks to the south on Wednesday with
next system approaching on northwest flow aloft. Dry and
moderating temps through Thursday.

Front to then slowly sink south across forecast area for the last
half of the work week, stalling out just south of I-70 corridor
during the day on Thursday. Will see overrunning pcpn develop
along stalled boundary by Thursday night with several rounds of
showers and isolated thunder through Friday evening.

Then a bit of a break in activity during the day on Saturday with
chances ramping back up again Saturday night through Monday. It
will not be a continuous chance of rain, but several rounds. Will
have above normal temps through the rest of the forecast period.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. WNW winds will
persist through the period, with gusts around 20 knots likely once
again Tuesday afternoon. Some mid/high clouds will stream through
tonight into Tuesday morning. It appears most of the strato-cu
development will remain just east of the TAF sites Tuesday





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