092
FXUS63 KPAH 181125
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is likely through the early morning hours,
  though uncertainties with cloud cover may limit fog
  development in portions of the Quad State.

- A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region
  Saturday, especially west Kentucky, while Sunday and Monday
  should be dry.

- An active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong to
  severe thunderstorms possible during the mid week period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

Corrected a sentence in the discussion section about the
midweek frontal passage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Calming winds and recent rainfall provide favorable conditions
for dense fog development through the early morning. However,
periods of cloud cover will limit the duration and coverage of
dense fog. With moderate support from the HREF and a few sites
below a mile by midnight, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued,
though only Carbondale and Hopkinsville have dropped to a
quarter mile vsby so far. Trends have been towards lower vsbys
over the past couple hours but it is likely the end result will
be a very hit or miss dense fog map.

An upper low is crossing from Arkansas towards Tennessee, with
a few showers and storms in northeast Arkansas that might sneak
in but will generally stay south. Shower/storm chances increase
to the chance range later today, mainly in southern portions of
Western Kentucky, associated with the upper low. Following its
departure, ridging moves through Sunday into Monday keeping
conditions dry as temperatures trend warmer. An upper level low
moves ENE towards Wisconsin Monday, keeping precip to the
northern fringes of the CWA Monday night.

Active weather reaches the area late Tuesday, continuing
through the remainder of the week. Low pressure develops in the
lee of the Rockies Monday night, deepening and progressing
northeastward towards the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Breezy southerly winds ahead of the front will bring plenty of
moisture to the Quad State Tuesday with highs a summerlike upper
80s to near 90. Models have nudged closer to a Tuesday night to
Wednesday morning timing for a boundary, bringing showers and
storms, with a stronger cold frontal passage later Wednesday.
Strong storms and the possibility of some severe storms remains.
The line-normal and progressive nature of the storm line should
keep flooding issues limited despite the ample rainfall that
has already occurred this month.

Late week precip chances remain due to an impulse in the south
and another system in the Northern Plains which might send
another front through the forecast area. Ensemble spread
increases following the Tuesday-Wednesday system so confidence
in late next week is low.

Following morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs max
out near 80 to the lower 80s today. A warming trend brings highs
to the upper 80s Sunday and Monday with a few 90s possible
Tuesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday night remain elevated in the
upper 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool slightly following the
midweek front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Shallow dense fog and low cigs, which has resulted in LIFR
conditions at several sites, will clear up within the first
hour or two of the TAF period. Winds will be light today and
cigs primarily around 4-5 kft. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon will be focused in Western
Kentucky, but KPAH/KOWB are in the slight chance range along
with portions of neighboring states in the Quad State. Calm
winds and clear skies tonight will allow for the possibility of
fog.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL