Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 270811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

The main areas of focus for today and tonight continue to be the on-
going concerns for smoke dispersal in Superior, Wisconsin, as well
as a potent mid-level shortwave and surface low pressure moving
through the Northland today, which should bring a mix of rain and
snow. Some light snow accumulations are possible in the Minnesota
Arrowhead region this morning.

Regarding the on-going event in Superior, Wisconsin, winds in and
around Superior have gone calm this morning, making for difficult
conditions for smoke dispersal. However, winds are expected to
increase from the northeast around the 7 to 8 AM time range as
surface low pressure dives southeast over the region. Winds will
remain from the northeast today, with sustained winds between 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph are expected for the afternoon.
Winds will weaken by late this afternoon and into the evening, and
eventually turn more northerly and sustain in this direction
overnight tonight.

Expanding to the rest of the Northland, the aforementioned area of
low pressure and a trailing cold front will bring increased chances
of precipitation, mainly to the Minnesota Arrowhead and areas over
northwest Wisconsin. The main precipitation types expected are rain
and snow, with snow early this morning, transitioning to rain.
Confidence in QPF is rather low as there are big differences
between the models in this regard. There is the potential for
snow accumulation early this morning, mainly over the Arrowhead
region, but current radar imagery doesn`t appear optimistic for
any decent accumulations. The latest SREF ensembles for snow
accumulations in the Arrowhead have increased from 24 hours ago,
with the ensemble mean approaching 1.5", but plenty of spread in
the ensemble members still exists. Due to surface temperatures
above freezing in these areas, thinking that actual accumulations
will be closer to one inch. There may actually be a rumble of
thunder in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon due to MUCAPE values
increasing to around 100 J/kg between the GFS and GEM models, so
added a slight chance for thunderstorms to our southern tier of NW
WI counties. Also today, northwest winds will be on the gusty
side as the low passes through, with gusts up to 30 mph over the
Brainerd Lakes region, and weaker elsewhere. Chances of
precipitation will linger over northeast Minnesota as the cold
front slowly passes through this evening, but chances will be very
low. High pressure will then build into the region Saturday
morning, and remain in control through the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

The weekend is shaping up to be very quiet, with plenty of sunshine
and warming temperatures. Highs on Saturday will generally be in the
50s, but they will warm into the 60s on Sunday. It may even reach 70
in Koochiching county. Strong upper level ridging will dominate the
mid section of the country over the weekend, but will then start to
move eastward by early next week. This will put our region in
southwest flow, with warm and humid air pushing into the region next
week. The first chance of showers will arrive later Sunday night,
with showers and thunderstorms developing by Monday night and
Tuesday. We could see some stronger storms on Tuesday, especially
across southern portions of the CWA. After a bit of a break on
Wednesday, another shortwave and surface low will move into the
region in southwest flow. The GFS is slower in bringing in the next
shortwave by midweek, but catches up by Thursday. The warmest day of
the long term period should be on Monday, with high temperatures
reaching into the lower 70s for most of the Northland. With
precipitation and considerable cloud cover expected at times during
the rest of the long term period, we should see temperatures in the
50s and 60s for the most part. Overnight lows will range from the
30s to 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

A vigorous upper level shortwave and surface low will slide
southeast across the region overnight and into the day Friday.
High resolution models generally keep the precipitation to the
north and east of KBRD, with the lowest CIG`s/VSBY`s across the
eastern areas as well. Some MVFR conditions are expected to
develop throughout the night and into Friday, with a wide variety
of wind directions and speeds as well.


DLH  46  27  50  31 /  40  20   0   0
INL  46  23  57  32 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  56  29  57  35 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  54  21  52  26 /  30  10   0   0
ASX  46  25  47  26 /  60  10   0   0




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