Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 250928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
328 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018


Upper level ridging, with the axis centered over portions of
northeast Montana today will maintain large scale subsidence over
the region. This will mean dry and warm weather conditions across
the CWA. Under the full influence of the late May sunshine, high
temperatures should push well into the 80s as the boundary layer
mixes out.

Tonight, skies will remain mainly clear with the ridge influence,
though temperatures will only scale back into the mid and upper
50s with the warm air mass in place.

On Saturday, 00z model guidance continues to show the upper level
low tracking into the Great Basin. Northeast Montana will be on
the northeast side of this system in a very warm and unstable
environment. As storms develop off the terrain over Central
Montana, they will spill into northeast Montana during the
afternoon and evening hours. CAPE/shear profiles in bufkit
forecast soundings show support for nice multicellular structures
and perhaps a few supercells. That all being said, those with
interests in the area should monitor for isolated severe
thunderstorms during this time, and SPC maintains the marginal
risk over the region.

Unsettled weather will continue at times into early next week
along with somewhat lower temperatures. This will occur as
northeast Montana remains on the northern side of the upper level
low pressure system. Associated lower heights, clouds and
precipitation will certainly maintain lower temperatures compared
with the air mass out ahead of this system.

As model spread increases late in the period, the forecast was
merely trended toward consensus model blends. Maliawco


VFR conditions will prevail for today. West winds around 10 mph
this morning will become northwest at 10 to 15 mph during the
afternoon. Maliawco




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