Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 270140
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
840 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 27/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR flight
categories for sites across the Four State Region with MVFR
conditions returning between 27/08Z-27/12Z with visibility
restrictions and lower ceilings between 1-3 KFT. Showers and
thunderstorms for the early part of the forecast period affecting
sites to the East and Southeast of a KELD/ElDorado, KMNE/Minden,
and KOCH /Nacogdoches line. May have to amend for KLFK or KMLU due
to the thunderstorms nearby. VFR returning after 27/13Z-27/15Z
and may see afternoon thunderstorms Sunday. Light and variable
surface winds through most of the forecast period with some
increase speeds in the afternoon Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday Night/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms initially developed across
portions of east TX and deep east TX earlier this morning, courtesy
of daytime destabilization /above normal warmth/, ensuing low level
moisture and a weak lingering surface boundary. That activity has
since significantly waned, but isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed across portions central and north
central LA late this afternoon, however this activity will be
more diurnally-driven. Similar to what has been occurring for the
last several days, some of these storms have become strong /as a
few Significant Weather Advisories have been issued/ with gusty
winds, small hail and brief moderate rainfall being the main
threats /can not rule a rogue severe storm or two/.

Tonight, the loss of daytime heating will lead to a general
waning/dissipating trend, though lingering showers will likely
persist particularly across eastern-half of the CWA due to a few
reasons: 1. UA ridging across Mexico will continue to expand
northeastward to across the western-half of the CWA and thus
increasing subsidence will promote mitigating shower/storm
development 2. Subtropical Storm Alberto is still poised to make
landfall sometime on Monday around the MS/AL Gulf coasts. Although
the tropical disturbance is not poised to move across the Four-State
Region, wrap around moisture along its moist western fringe will
still keep the eastern-half of the CWA within a relatively unstable
environment. As such, showers and thunderstorms will prevail across
the said areas tomorrow, with slightly better coverage during the
afternoon hours as daytime destabilization commences. Once again, a
few strong storms can not be ruled out.

Mild nights have become the norm and tonight should be no different
/upper 60s to lower 70s/ followed by continued above normal warmth
for tomorrow afternoon /lower 90s/.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/

As we move into next work week, the upper ridge axis will be firmly
anchored over the Big Bend region of TX newd through central TX as
Alberto prepares to make landfall somewhere along the FL/AL coast.
Aside from some very isold diurnal tstms during the early part of
the work week, it looks like Alberto is going to leave us high and
dry. Reinforced subsidence on the back side of the TC will likely
keep rain chances out for us, aside from a few of our far ern
counties/parishes potentially being grazed by an outer rainbands.
Remnants of Alberto will be picked up/forced newd by an upper
level trof moving across the Central/High Plains by midweek,
allowing the upper ridge to reinforce itself across TX through the
latter half of the week. This will result in a sharp uptick in
aftn temperatures across the region. Latest blends top portions of
our region out in the mid and upper 90s from Wednesday onward
through the end of the pd. With soils/vegetation drying out, these
temps may in reality end up even warmer than the blends suggest,
and heat index readings will no doubt exceed 100 degrees. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  93  69  93 /  20  20  10  20
MLU  70  90  70  89 /  30  40  10  30
DEQ  67  94  68  92 /  10  10   0  10
TXK  69  92  69  91 /  20  10   0  20
ELD  68  91  69  90 /  30  30  10  20
TYR  71  94  71  93 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  71  93  70  93 /  20  20   0  10
LFK  71  94  71  93 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/29/12



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