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942
FXUS61 KLWX 261407
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1007 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move south of the area later today.
Weak high pressure will build to our north today and
Saturday, before becoming established offshore early next
week. Precipitation chances return by mid to late next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest surface analysis observes a weak cold front situated
across the southern-most portions of the forecast area this
morning. Localized patches of fog across central VA have since
began to lift, with low and mid-level clouds lingering across
most of the area. These clouds will persist throughout the early
portion of the day before clearing more from north to south
later tonight when the cold front becomes more displaced to the
south and high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region.

Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
portions of central VA later today given the slowness of the
progression of the weak cold front. This may allow for some
low-level moisture to stick around before moving further south.
Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to maybe even some upper
80s across the lower elevations. Overnight lows will drop down
into the low to mid 60s for most areas aside from the Allegheny
Front where mid 50s may be possible given the weak flow aloft.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will dominate the area this weekend. This will
allow for mostly sunny skies and lower humidity to persist
through Sunday. Air temperatures will still be slightly above
normal with low 90s expected across the lower elevations. Winds
will remain light and variable as the high lingers around the
region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s Saturday
night before increasing slightly for Sunday night as a warmer,
moist airmass moves in for the start of the workweek. Cannot
rule out a stray shower across the far southwest areas by late
Sunday night into early Monday morning.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
To start off the workweek, high pressure will continue to move
offshore as return flow ushers in increasing moisture from the
southwest. Precipitation chances are best for those west of the Blue
Ridge with the I-95 corridor north of Fredericksburg expected to
remain dry. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s
for most with overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s.

An upper level trough pivoting over the east coast will bring daily
shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday through the remainder of the
long term period. A general warming pattern will result in
temperatures gradually warming each day. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the 80s for most with high temperatures on Thursday warming to the
low to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the upper 60s
to mid 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Winds will shift to the NE and gust to about 15 kt this morning
before diminishing this afternoon.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday, with
southerly winds blowing 5 to 10 knots and gusting up to 15 knots.
Sub-VFR conditions are possible on Tuesday during possible
precipitation in the afternoon.
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&&

.MARINE...
A pressure surge behind the cdfnt this morning will cause winds
to strengthen and gust to about 20kt. Have issued a SCA for this
morning. Winds become light and variable this afternoon through
the weekend.

Southerly winds on Monday will gust right at or below SCA criteria
in the evening. Winds remain out of the south on Tuesday, with
additional SCAs possible in the afternoon.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Weak return flow as high pressure lingers to the north today
into the weekend will allow for some of the more sensitive tidal
locations like Annapolis to reach Action Stage today and
Saturday and maybe even touching Minor Flood Stage by Sunday`s
high tide cycle.
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&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...LFR/ADM
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/LFR/ADM
MARINE...AVS/LFR/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX