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000
FXUS64 KLZK 012333
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
633 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Upper low pressure continues to move through the eastern Great Lakes
with another low over the Desert Southwest. By Sunday morning the
upper low in the southwest will move east to New Mexico and open
into a trough. The trough will move through Arkansas Sunday night
and to the east coast by late Monday afternoon.

Surface high pressure will move east of Arkansas tonight. South
winds will return Sunday and bring an increase in moisture and dew
points. As a warm front approaches from the south, chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day but will
be mainly in the afternoon and overnight Sunday. High pressure
will build over the state Monday with dry weather.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s, and in the 50s
Sunday night. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s and
then in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY:

An upper lvl trof deepens across the Southwestern region of the
CONUS w/ overall upper lvl ridging across the eastern 2/3rds of the
CONUS.

At the surface, a warm front will begin lifting through the Natural
State overnight on Monday with the next round of possible severe
weather impacting the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night along a
dryline that will approach the area just ahead of a cold front.
Tuesday will see significant warming and a broad area of moisture
that will overspread the state allowing for the possibility of
strong and isolated severe weather during the afternoon/evening
timeframe on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY:

A cold front will sweep through the state during the day on
Wednesday ushering out the rain and isolated thunderstorms across a
large part of the state. As the cold front approaches eastern
Arkansas the front will become more west-east positioned and slow
beginning the process of stalling and becoming a stationary front.
Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances will remain into Wednesday
becoming more pronounced across the southern 1/2 of the state.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

An upper lvl closed low becomes develops across the northern Plains
region of the CONUS during the day on Wednesday into Thursday w/
upper lvl flow becoming more westerly from southwesterly. At the
surface, the stationary front positions across the Gulf Coast which
will allow for continued rain chances across Arkansas, especially
the southern 2/3rds of the state through Friday. As we look to next
weekend it appears that the meandering stationary boundary will
linger across the Gulf Coast states and at times provide rainfall
chances to increase across the entire state going into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

High pressure continues to dominate and will do so through the
night with widespread VFR conditions expected. A new weather
system will approach the terminals late in the period but the
majority of the precipitation will hold off until after the TAF
period ends so VCSH will suffice. Winds will turn more south to
southeast with time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     42  71  55  78 /   0  30  30   0
Camden AR         45  76  58  85 /   0  70  70   0
Harrison AR       39  69  52  79 /   0  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    44  74  56  83 /   0  50  50   0
Little Rock   AR  46  75  58  82 /   0  50  60   0
Monticello AR     48  76  60  85 /   0  70  80  10
Mount Ida AR      42  73  55  82 /   0  50  50   0
Mountain Home AR  38  71  52  78 /   0  10  10   0
Newport AR        42  69  55  77 /   0  30  40   0
Pine Bluff AR     46  75  58  84 /   0  60  70  10
Russellville AR   42  73  54  81 /   0  30  30   0
Searcy AR         41  71  55  79 /   0  40  50   0
Stuttgart AR      46  73  58  81 /   0  60  60  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....233
AVIATION...56