Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 140535
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1135 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

.AVIATION...
Forecasts continue to take to account expected development of
winter precipitation during the second half of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings will prevail across the eastern half of the
forecast area during the second half of the forecast period.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 607 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018)
AVIATION...14/00Z TAF CYCLE

Look for VFR conds to prevail thru the night acrs the FA. Low
clouds wl start to incrs ovr SE AR toward daybreak Wed mrng, sloly
spreading mainly NWD thereafter. Combo of VFR/MVFR CIGS wl be
noted over parts of central/eastern AR by Wed aftn. Light precip
wl dvlp ovr SE AR late tngt and cont on Wed. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 405 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday

Main focus in the short term will be on the upper low coming out of
the southwest, and how it will impact the forecast area. Just issued
a winter weather advisory starting Wednesday morning and lasting
thru noon on Thursday...covering primarily the northern and eastern
zones.

Area of concern number 1 will be for the northeastern zones. Some
heavier snowfall may occur on the backside of the low. Most areas
could see 1-2 inches of total snowfall, but I am speculating that
there could be some locally higher amounts.

Area of concern number 2 will be for snowfall along the remainder of
the eastern zones starting toward tomorrow morning. Looks like there
could be up to a half inch of total snowfall in these areas, with a
chance of some very light freezing drizzle. Snowfall amounts are not
going to be particularly impressive, perhaps a half inch. Despite
that, I will cover this area with a winter weather advisory since
there has not been any wintry precipitation there yet this
season, and the freezing drizzle will likely cause a traffic
hazard for bridges and overpasses.

Area 3 will be the northern tier of counties outside of the
northeast. Looks like a half to one inch of snowfall may occur
there, however local amounts of up to two inches could also be
possible.

Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing on Thursday as
dry air and warm air advection will filter in quickly behind the
upper low. This should limit the adverse impacts of any snow or
ice accumulation to Thursday morning as any ice and snow on the
ground is expected to melt quickly between the influence of soil
temperatures that remain above freezing, and the abundant sunshine
that will be in place across the state Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Thursday`s trend of warm air advection will continue across
Arkansas on Friday as Wednesday`s compact shortwave trough / upper
low moves well off to the northeast and gets absorbed into the
polar jet stream in place over the far northern CONUS. After the
start to this week, Friday will feel quite warm by comparison as
highs are expected to climb up into the upper 50s to low 60s under
mostly sunny skies and persistent low-level warm air advection.

Another relatively warm day is expected across the state on
Saturday, however cloud cover will be increasing rapidly from west
to east Saturday late afternoon and evening as a strong shortwave
trough causes the polar jet stream to dig south over the Ohio
Valley, dragging a cold front across the state Saturday night into
Sunday. With most of the upper level support and associated large
scale forcing for ascent remaining north of Arkansas, expect that
rainfall chances will be greatest along and behind the cold
frontal boundary. Lower to mid-level frontogenetic forcing will be
the primary lifting mechanism, and this will be somewhat
inefficient at producing precipitation with meager lapse rates and
upper level support to enhance the lift. Expect scattered to
numerous rain showers to develop across the state on Sunday and
persist through Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to remain
above freezing, so no adverse impacts are expected at this time.

Light rain showers are expected to linger over Arkansas on Monday,
but the air behind the front will only be cooler...not
significantly colder...because the polar jet stream remains well
off to the northeast of the state. Highs early next week will top
out in the lower to mid 50s with mostly clear skies from Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday
FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Desha-Drew-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson-
Lawrence-Lincoln-Marion-Monroe-Prairie-Randolph-Sharp-Stone-
White-Woodruff.

&&

$$

55
Aviation...99


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