389
FXUS64 KLZK 181027 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
527 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Relatively quiet albeit breezy conditions are ongoing across the
Natural state early this Fri morning...with mainly dry conditions
continuing. Temps have remained int he 60s and 70s due to this wind
allowing mixing to continue during the overnight period. If winds
were to relax some...especially in those more sheltered
locations...those areas could see temps drop into the upper 50s to
low 60s. Otherwise...most areas will see mild but mainly dry
conditions continuing into the morning hrs. SRLY winds will continue
into the afternoon hrs...allowing temps to warm into the mid 70s to
mid 80s. Dewpts will also be on the rise ahead of an approaching
cold front.

A more active pattern will develop over the next few days starting
today as he cold front approaches from the NW. Flow aloft will
increase from the SW by this afternoon...with this front slowing as
it approaches AR as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. Chances
for convection increase across the NWRN portion of the CWA late this
afternoon...but primarily this evening into the overnight period.
Best overlap of instability and SHR will be just ahead of this front
over the same NWRN corner of the state...though coverage of
convection looks somewhat limited due to forecast CIN going into the
evening/overnight period with decreasing SFC heating. Any threat for
SVR convection will be conditional on this CIN being overcome by
either forcing from the SFC front...or any upper level waves passing
overhead. In any case...coverage in the LZK CWA looks somewhat
limited...with better coverage of convection further NW along/behind
the SFC front through tonight.

The SFC front that will initially stall over the far NWRN corner of
the state tonight will lift back to the NW some during the day on
Sat as flow aloft becomes more SRLY just west of AR. The focus for
convection will shift slightly NW as a result...but may wobble back
to the SE slightly for Sat night. This slight shift will be aided
from the upper level closed low over the SWRN CONUS lifting ENE into
the SRN Plains...opening into a more open upper wave as it moves
closer to AR. Best chances for convection look to remain just
west/NW of the CWA through Sat night as a result...but this upper
shortwave will continue lifting NE...north of AR by the early part of
the long term period. This will be when the focus for convection
will shift east and impact a larger portion of the CWA.

The threat for seeing strong/SVR convection will remain conditional
through the short term period given the primary focus of convection
remaining just to the NW of AR. If convection were to develop into
the far WRN to NWRN counties this afternoon/tonight...and again for
Sat afternoon/night...a couple of these storms could become strong
to SVR if they manage to overcome the CAP. All modes of SVR Wx could
be seen...including damaging winds...large hail...and possibly a
tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible...with the
highest threat for seeing heavy rainfall across the NWRN corner of
the CWA. Will note that any adjustment in where the front stalls
through Sat night will either increase or decrease the threat for
seeing SVR Wx and or heavy rainfall for the CWA...and of course the
SEWD extend of those threats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An active weather pattern will be ongoing heading into the long term.
Synoptically, a compact negatively tilted trough and associated
closed low is anticipated to pivot across the region just to the NW
of AR. This passing upper level feature will spark off a round of
showers and thunderstorms across AR on Sunday and Sunday evening.
More details on Sunday`s weather to come. Afterwards, upper flow
will become WSW to SW through mid-to-late week. With sustained
WSW/SW flow in place through the period, a couple rounds of upper
level energy are expected to traverse across the region bringing
additional bouts of precipitation to AR on Wednesday and Thursday.

At the surface, AR will easily reside within the warm sector on
Sunday bound by a surface low just to the NW of the AR border, a
cold front trailing from the surface low back to the SW, and a warm
front extending E from the surface low. Dew points across the state
are expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with afternoon air
temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

From a synoptic perspective, the closed low is expected to be rather
compact and as such the wind field confined to a relatively small
area compared to the previous couple of big weather events. While
impressive jet dynamics appear present such as winds turning
clockwise with height in addition to speed maxima`s, the area being
covered is smaller and in closer proximity to the upper level
features. This puts the best helicity, 0-1km and 0-3km, overlapped
with other favorable ingredients over MO. Also, the forecasted
environment looks to be low CAPE high shear and EBWD of 50-70 kts.
Nonetheless, the threat for strong to severe weather remains
possible across much of the state with all modes of severe weather
possible. LCL`s are a bit high for ideal tornado conditions, but
this low level drier air could accelerate rain cooled air to the
ground leading to an enhanced damaging wind gust threat. Timing of
strongest storms appear to be Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

A flood watch remains in place over portions of NW AR where total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible from Friday through
Monday. Locally higher amounts are possible over NW AR.

A brief surface high will move into the state in the wake of
Sundays cold front. High pressure will remain in control through
Tuesday bringing a reprieve of rainfall from over the weekend. By
mid to late week, PoPs will increase once again in response to
passing upper level impulses. At this time the risk of severe
weather looks low for the mid-week systems. Temperatures through the
period will largely be in the upper 50s to mid 60s for lows and
upper 70s to mid 80s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Some low MVFR CIGs are moving into SWRN to central sections early
this Fri morning as moisture increases from the south. These MVFR
conditions should improve by later this morning...with dominant
VFR conditions expected through this afternoon/evening. Breezy
SRLY winds will be seen into this evening...with some chances for
convection increasing across NRN terminals as a front approaches
from the NW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  68  81  64 /  10  20  20  60
Camden AR         88  65  85  65 /   0   0  10  20
Harrison AR       81  63  71  59 /  30  70  80  90
Hot Springs AR    87  66  83  64 /   0  10  30  50
Little Rock   AR  87  68  84  66 /   0  10  10  40
Monticello AR     88  68  85  67 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      86  67  81  63 /  10  20  40  60
Mountain Home AR  82  64  74  59 /  20  60  70  80
Newport AR        86  68  84  65 /   0  10  10  40
Pine Bluff AR     88  67  84  66 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   86  67  81  63 /  20  30  40  70
Searcy AR         86  67  83  64 /   0  10  10  40
Stuttgart AR      87  68  84  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday evening for
ARZ004>006-014-015-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-
212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62