Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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512
FXUS64 KLZK 230853
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
353 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

The overall synoptic pattern is more or less unchanged on the
whole again this morning. Large scale upper ridging remains
anchored invof the Four Corners region while significant upper
troughing is observed across much of the eastern CONUS, yielding
highly-amplified quasi- meridional flow aloft. At the surface,
a diffuse frontal boundary exists across the Gulf states, and this
feature will continue gradually sinking south. Messy ridging
across the local area is noted on morning surface charts, with winds
expected to remain light and variable in the absence of diurnal
heating.

As the boundary layer mixes during the day, winds will increase
and maintain a large northerly component. This suggests a dry
pattern will continue in the absence of any large- scale forcing
mechanisms or mesoscale features of interest. Dewpoint
temperatures will also remain slightly lower compared to last
week, indicating heat indices should stay below advisory criteria,
with the highest values reaching the mid-to-upper 90s during peak
heating each afternoon. Residual moisture aloft suggests passing
clouds will be a fixture each day, mostly as a result of diurnal
convective processes. A slight warming trend will be noted through
the mid-week time frame as upper ridging to our west strengthens
once again.

Cooper

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

At the start of the period, H500 ridging will intensify over the SW
US with heights of aoa 600 decameters being advertised by both the
ECMWF and GFS. Troughing will be in place over and east of the state
which will provide a weak NW flow aloft. High pressure at the
surface will be in place north of the state and through Friday will
drift east over the Ohio Valley.

Temperatures at the surface will remain above normal through Friday
with central to southern parts of the state seeing readings close to
100F in spots.  While Td`s will largely be in the 60s Wednesday, Td
values will approach or exceed 70F Thursday and Friday. With this
increase in moisture and temps (across central and southern AR)
approaching 100F, heat indices will approach heat advisory criteria
(heat index of 105F or greater).

This weekend will see the H500 ridge weaken a bit but remain in
place across the western states. A strengthening trough will progress
over much of the eastern half of the US. This will enhance the NW
flow aloft, help a cold front move into the state, increase rain
chances and cool temperatures by several degrees. Northern Arkansas
will see temps cool initially with the rest of the state seeing some
relief for the early part of next week.

67

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  67  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         93  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       87  66  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    93  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  90  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  68  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  88  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        87  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  69  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   92  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         90  68  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      89  68  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...67



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