869
FXUS64 KLZK 261846
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
146 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

H500 low will continue to slowly rotate its way toward the N/NE
through the short term between ridges of high pressure to the
west and southeast of the region. This will provide continued
chances for showers and thunderstorms along with below normal
temperatures.

While readings may be below normal, it still feels quite
uncomfortable outside as Td values are largely in the 70s F. No
major severe/hazardous weather concerns other than the possibility
of localized heavy rainfall. Observed and forecast PW values of
1.50"-2.00" will remain over the area through Saturday with
relatively slow storm motion. While confidence isn`t overly high
in a specific corridor of heavy rainfall, daytime CAM runs have
been hinting at an area from west central to central parts of the
state where a few inches of rain could fall.

&&

.Long Term...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

To begin the period, an upper level trough will be over the Central
Plains, pushing into the Great Lakes region. At the same time, H500
high pressure looks to be over the Southwest U.S. into the Gulf of
Mexico. This high pressure system will gradually slide over the
state as we move through the long term period. With that said,
moisture associated with the trough will hang around through
Tuesday brining additional chances for pop-up showers and
thunderstorms, especially across northern and eastern locations.

As the pattern changes going into the middle of next week, hot and
dry conditions are expected to move in as high pressure begins to
take control of the weather pattern. Above average temperatures will
be expected as hot and humid conditions returning to the Natural
State.

As mentioned above, hot and humid conditions will be returning to
the Natural State by the middle of next week. Heat advisories and
excessive heat warnings will likely be needed. Forecast high
temperatures are expected to get into the upper 80s to near 100
degrees with heat index values between 100 to 115 in places.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be seen across the state
through the period which will lead to occasional impacts at area
terminals. Mixed bag of cigs across the area this afternoon with
most terminals expected to fall to MVFR or lower tonight through
Saturday morning. Winds will be out of the S-SE at less than 10
kts with some variation in direction likely at times. Some FG
development is possible overnight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  82  70  86 /  40  70  40  60
Camden AR         70  83  70  88 /  60  60  20  50
Harrison AR       68  80  67  86 /  20  70  30  30
Hot Springs AR    70  84  71  89 /  70  70  20  50
Little Rock   AR  72  83  73  89 /  60  70  40  50
Monticello AR     72  84  72  88 /  60  70  30  60
Mount Ida AR      69  83  69  87 /  60  70  20  50
Mountain Home AR  70  80  68  86 /  30  70  40  40
Newport AR        72  82  71  86 /  40  70  40  60
Pine Bluff AR     71  83  71  87 /  60  60  30  50
Russellville AR   71  83  71  88 /  60  70  30  40
Searcy AR         71  82  70  87 /  50  70  40  60
Stuttgart AR      72  82  72  86 /  60  70  40  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67