Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 180844
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
344 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The remnants of severe storms, which impacted portions of the
central Plains last night, are moving ESE across southern MO, NE
Oklahoma, and into northern AR this morning. Wind speeds exceeding
60 mph have been reported as a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves
across the region. The outflow, and storms, are weakening as they
approach. However, they are moving into a region with a low-level
jet and sufficient CAPE, mid-level lapse rates, and bulk
shear, which may allow for maintenance or further development
before the storms move out of the area. CAMs had been showing these
storms taking on a more easterly path this morning, which is not
happening quite as soon as forecast. We are starting to see a shift
in that direction, but will continue to monitor as these storms
continue to pose a threat for damaging winds across northern
portions of the CWA.

Zonal upper level flow has replaced upper ridging across the central
and southern Plains, as a series of SWTs continue to progress
eastward through the flow. The upper level flow will become
southwesterly late Thursday/early Friday as an upper low moves into
northern Mexico and a widespread upper trough pattern shifts south
across the western CONUS from western Canada.

Low level southerly flow across the southern Plains (on the west
side of ridging/high pressure) will stop a cold front just north of
the state early Thursday. Parts of northern AR will see rain chances
late Wed night through the day Thurs, along the stalled boundary
draped across southern MO. The front will lift north late Thurs, as
mid and upper flow shifts from the SW and low-level SWerly flow
strengthens with an increasing pressure gradient.

Well above average high temperatures return Wednesday and Thursday,
with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Low temps will be in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Well, taking a look at the synoptic scale models this morning...the
solutions are converging on slowing the end of the week system down
a bit.

At the beginning of the period, frontal boundary will be approaching
from the plains. Southwesterly upper flow and southerly surface flow
will bring moisture into the region, with temperatures reaching the
80s to near 90 degrees during the day Friday. Scattered showers/
storms will be possible as instability increases and weak waves
rotate around the periphery of an upper ridge centered over the
southeast conus. This would be during the afternoon and into the
nighttime hours. Isolated strong storms could occur given the
instability and low level shear present.

Precip coverage/intensity will increase on Saturday as upper
troughing digs down into the plains and the southeast ridge
contracts a bit and shifts eastward. This will push the
aforementioned frontal boundary into the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front on Saturday,
with the chance of strong to severe storms a little higher as the
surface and mid-level systems will be nearly in-phase with each
other. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary concern with any
strong storms.

Frontal boundary will shift south of the area Saturday Night into
Sunday. However, the system will likely stall out just south of the
state, with high pressure moving in behind it, albeit briefly.
Several weak disturbances will pass through in the mean flow, and
this will keep slight rain chances in the forecast into the week.

The bigger deal (at least in my not so humble opinion) is the cooler
temperatures behind the front. Highs into early next week will range
in the 70s and 80s, with low temperatures mostly in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  69  90  71 /  20  10   0   0
Camden AR         92  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       87  66  86  70 /  30  20  10   0
Hot Springs AR    91  69  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  92  71  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     93  70  92  70 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      90  69  90  69 /  10  10   0   0
Mountain Home AR  88  66  88  70 /  30  20  10   0
Newport AR        90  69  89  71 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  71  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   91  68  90  70 /  20  10   0   0
Searcy AR         91  68  90  69 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      92  71  92  71 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...71 / Long Term...57


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