Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 120533
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop
across the region as an area of low pressure approaches the SW
corner of the state. Moisture levels remain elevated with fog and
low ceilings possible just about any time during the night. VCTS
or TSRA will be possible for all TAF sites especially early in the
period before aforementioned low exits the area. Widespread VFR
to occasional MVFR conditions are expected but even brief IFR
conditions will be possible mainly across the northern terminals.
Winds will be generally be light and southerly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 707 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020)
AVIATION...12/00Z TAF CYCLE

Strongest convection was noted ovr SE AR attm, with a weakening
trend noted elsewhere. Kept lingering SHRA/TSRA in the fcst acrs
the S half of the FA this evening, with combo of VFR/MVFR conds
expected. Lower clouds and patchy fog is fcst for most locations
later tngt into Wed mrng. Convective trends Wed aftn rmn uncertain,
so opted to just mention VCTS for now. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 231 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2020)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Tricky forecast is on tap with significant moisture in place across
the area and a number of short waves expected to move across the
region. For tonight, expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
through the afternoon and evening mainly across the northern two
thirds of the state. These are expected to weaken/move out of the
area after dark with yet another round of rain moving into the state
from the west. This will bring chances mainly across the southern
two thirds of the state.

On Wednesday models diverge on possible solutions with the GFS and
ECMWF quite a bit wetter when compared to the NAM. NBM tends to
agree with a drier, warmer solution on Wednesday, however did lean a
bit more towards the wetter solution on Wednesday. As a result,
increased POPs and Cloud Cover, but lowered high temperatures. Did
not go as low as GFS and ECMWF suggested, with the intention of
letting future shifts fine tune the forecast.

By Thursday, upper level ridge will strengthen across the western
CONUS, putting Arkansas in continued NW flow. This will allow
continued rain chances, however widespread heavy rain is not
expected.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Monday Night

Upper level high pressure continues to dominate the western U.S.
through the period. Upper ridging will extend into the central and
southern Plains, with a few disturbances moving through the ridge,
keeping some rain chances in the forecast through the weekend and
the early part of next week.

Highs will be in the lower 90s Fri through Sun. A cold front will
move through the state Sun, shifting the wind direction from SSE to
NNW by early Monday morning. Highs Mon will be in the lower to mid
80s over NW AR and in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the rest of the
state. Highs Tues will be in the lower to mid 80s across the state.

Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s through next Monday
morning. Next Tues morning, lows will be in the lower 60s in the
northern part of the state and in the upper 60s over southern AR.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...GOUDSWARD



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