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000
FXUS64 KLZK 151156 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at most locations in Arkansas through
tonight. There will be chances of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern half of the state during this time frame. Given
this, there may be brief MVFR conditions in places due to
precipitation, low clouds, and patchy fog. Any MVFR conditions will
be most likely this morning. Winds today will be south/southwest
at 8 to 14 mph with 16 to 22 mph gusts. Winds tonight will be
south/southwest at 5 to 10 mph. (46)

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

After two to three inch plus rainfall in parts of western
Arkansas on Tuesday, here comes round two. Showers and
thunderstorms will overspread northern into central sections
of the state through tonight. Precipitation will be in response
to a storm system aloft wobbling from the mid-Mississippi Valley
toward the Ohio Valley and a weak cold front drifting into the
region from the north.

Parts of north/west could receive two to four inches of rain
through tonight with isolated higher amounts. Given recent
heavy rain in the Ouachita Mountains of the west and the Arkansas
River Valley west of Morrilton on Tuesday, any additional liquid
could cause high water problems.

A Flood Watch has been posted in parts of the north and
west through tonight.

As the aforementioned storm system wobbles to the east,
yet another system will be on its heels in the central
Plains on Thursday. That will keep the pattern unsettled
for the remainder of the near term. Also, high pressure
along the Gulf Coast will flatten a bit, and this will
allow precipitation to finally build into southern Arkansas.

Temperatures will tend to be at/below seasonal levels
in northern/central sections, and at/above normal across
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

High pressure ridging across the southern United States will
gradually move westward through the period, with several frontal
boundaries and upper level lows/troughs moving east through the
mid CONUS.

The initial synoptic setup will prevent the frontal boundaries from
advancing southeastward through Arkansas, resulting in the features
stalling across northern portions of the region. This, combined with
the several impulses rotating through the mean flow will provide a
favorable environment for widespread rainfall.

Continue to anticipate the ridge of high pressure retreating towards
the Desert Southwest by the end of the period and early next week,
allowing a deeper upper level low to develop across the Great Lakes
region. With this slight change in the synoptic setup, we could see
a couple of cold fronts move further south through the state.

Chances for rainfall each day will help keep forecast highs down in
the mid 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  71  90  73 /  50  50  40  50
Camden AR         94  77  94  76 /  20  30  30  40
Harrison AR       80  69  87  70 /  80  50  30  50
Hot Springs AR    89  75  91  75 /  30  40  40  50
Little Rock   AR  89  74  91  75 /  30  50  50  50
Monticello AR     93  77  92  75 /  10  30  30  40
Mount Ida AR      87  73  90  73 /  40  40  40  50
Mountain Home AR  80  69  87  70 /  80  50  20  50
Newport AR        86  73  88  73 /  40  50  50  50
Pine Bluff AR     91  75  91  74 /  20  40  50  50
Russellville AR   85  72  90  74 /  60  50  40  50
Searcy AR         89  72  91  73 /  40  50  50  50
Stuttgart AR      90  74  90  74 /  30  40  50  50
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through late tonight FOR Baxter-Boone-Conway-Johnson-
Logan-Marion-Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Polk-Pope-Scott-Searcy-Van
Buren-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...CROSS