Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 012051
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
251 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday

Current satellite imagery shows clearing skies over much of Wrn AR,
meanwhile overcast conditions prevail across Cntrl/Srn/Ern AR in the
wake of last nights frontal passage. Temperatures around the state
range from the mid 40s over Srn AR to the lower 50s over Nrn/Wrn AR.
Regional radar depicts a corridor of light to moderate stratiform
rainfall stretching from NE TX into Srn AR then Ewrd into Nrn MS and
AL. This precipitation lies just the N of a quasi-stationary surface
boundary where isentropic ascent is maximized. Convection is
primarily moving NE parallel with the surface boundary, thus showers
are training over the same locations. Despite this training of
showers, precipitation rates are on the lighter side therefore
additional flash flooding is not expected. Precipitation will
slowly work Ewrd overnight as a compact upper closed low moves
towards the state.

Aloft, the upper level trough responsible for the cold front will
move away from the region later today. At the same time, an upper
closed low will move towards and into Arkansas on Tuesday. At the
surface a weak area of high pressure will be situated over
AR/MO/OK border and will serve to usher cooler and drier air into
the state on NE winds. The approach of this closed low will
provide an additional round of precipitation to affect the state
on Tuesday. This upper low will advect some very cold air at both
the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere. Highest likelihood of
precipitation is over portions of S/SErn AR with PoPs decreasing
N and W towards surface high pressure.

Current thinking is this cooling will be just enough to get some
snow to the ground across the higher terrain of the Ouachitas and
Ozark/Boston Mtns. Some snow may mix in with the rainfall at lower
elevations of Nrn/Cntrl AR but think temperatures will be just too
warm for anything noteworthy for Cntrl portions of the state. If
precipitation rates can increase a bit, would think snow mixed
with rain would be more widespread but given cooler and drier air
advecting in from the N and E, will conclude light precipitation
will be the likely intensity. With temperature hovering near or
just above freezing in the higher terrain, the going forecast has
about a half inch or less of snowfall accumulation generally above
1500 feet, to potentially one inch or more above 2000 feet.
Confidence is not high with the potential for snowfall, given the
amount of available cold air will only be provided by the upper
low and precipitation amounts and rates vary from model-to-model
and run-to-run. Elsewhere across the state, mainly a cold rain can
be expected. This system will quickly exit Tuesday afternoon and
drier weather will ensue. Temperatures on Tuesday should top out
in the upper 30s/lower 40s Cntrl/higher terrain to mid 40s on all
corners of the state. Temperatures will modify nicely on Wednesday
with readings reaching the mid 60s across the W to the upper 50s
E.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Sunday

Models rmn in good agreement with overall fcst trends thru the PD.
High pres ridging, both at the sfc and aloft, wl be in control ovr
the region thru Thu. Another in a series of srn stream storm systems
wl move into the Srn Plains by Fri, eventually passing acrs the FA
as an open wave late Fri and Fri ngt.

The aforementioned system rmns progged to weaken ovr time as it
moves thru the Mid-South. Thus, opted to keep PoPs in the chance
category for consistency on Fri. Dry conds return just in time for
the weekend as the system heads to the E and high pres regains
control and temps rmn close to seasonal norms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     54  34  44  30 /   0   0  50  20
Camden AR         48  39  44  32 /  90  60  70   0
Harrison AR       52  31  51  33 /   0   0  20   0
Hot Springs AR    53  37  44  30 /  20  20  50   0
Little Rock   AR  53  35  43  32 /  10  20  60   0
Monticello AR     48  39  44  33 /  90  60  80   0
Mount Ida AR      53  35  45  31 /  20  20  40   0
Mountain Home AR  53  32  51  31 /   0   0  20   0
Newport AR        53  34  47  31 /   0   0  50  20
Pine Bluff AR     49  37  42  33 /  50  30  70   0
Russellville AR   56  35  44  31 /   0  10  50   0
Searcy AR         53  34  42  30 /  10   0  50  10
Stuttgart AR      49  35  44  32 /  20  20  70  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...JONES / Long Term...44



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