Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
643 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

Deep convection starting over northern and western Arkansas at
this time as a cold front approaches the area. The system will
move slowly across the state tonight with scattered showers and
thunderstorms accompanying the boundary. Some of these storms may
be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail the primary
concern. Winds will shift from the southeast to the northwest
behind the boundary. VFR conditions will prevail for the majority
of the period with the exception of MVFR conditions when the
storms pass through. Low level moisture will remain over the north
for a good part of the day Monday.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 213 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Satellite imagery and surface obs were showing a surface cold front
extending from around Joplin, MO southwestward through eastern OK on
into north central TX. A capping inversion was inhibiting the
development of any thunderstorms through the early afternoon hours,
but this will change as the front progresses southeastward and the
cap breaks. The front is currently on track to enter the northwest
portion of AR in a couple of hours and will sweep southeastward
through the forecast area during the evening and overnight hours.
Latest runs of short-term models were indicating the development of
discrete thunderstorms/supercells along the front beginning around
00Z. Any storms that do form will be able to tap into CAPE values
greater than 1,000 J/kg but approaching 2,000 J/kg over the
southwest portion of the state. The front will also have some upper
level support as a shortwave trough traverses the area amidst quasi-
zonal flow aloft. While large hail and strong winds are the most
likely severe weather modes, the possibility of tornadoes has crept
up some due to increased low level shear availability. Incidentally,
the SPC has placed an area of enhanced risk in the Day 1 Severe
Outlook over southwest AR in line with the aforementioned reasoning.

Drier northwest flow will develop across AR, both at the surface and
aloft, on Monday as the progressive front exits the forecast area to
the southeast and a broad mid/upper level ridge builds eastward into
the state from the western U.S. Afternoon highs will generally range
from the mid 60s over the higher terrain of northern AR to the lower
70s over the southern portion of the forecast area. Precipitation-
free conditions, along with clearing skies, will prevail Monday
night/Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure continues
to build over the state. Under mostly sunny skies with light
northeast winds on Tuesday, high temperatures will mostly range from
the upper 50s over the northern higher terrain to the mid 60s over
the south.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Upper ow pressure will be over Alabama and Georgia to begin the
extended period with a large upper ridge over the Plains. This ridge
will expand over much of the country Wednesday as the upper low
moves off the southeast coast of the U.S. By Friday, a strong upper
low pressure moves into the Rockies, moving slowly southeast
Saturday and Sunday.

High pressure over the area Tuesday night and Wednesday will move
east of the area Thursday. Low pressure in the Plains Friday will
bring a warm front across Arkansas and the associated cold front
through the state Friday night. As instability increases, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night and will
be greatest Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be close to
normal through much of the period but below normal by Sunday.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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