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000
FXUS64 KLZK 032330 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the forecast period. Given the
intermittent nature of the precipitation, have chosen to include
VCSH for most of the activity. Widespread rainfall will be more
likely Saturday morning and early afternoon, and therefore have
included SHRA for western and central terminals. Low clouds and BR
will linger through much of the forecast period as well, resulting
in mainly MVFR and IFR categories.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday Night

The latest surface analysis shows a low pressure system and a cold
front along the western border of Arkansas. The system and cold
front will track to the southeast through the state tonight and
Saturday and eventually stall over eastern and southern AR by early
Sunday.

Arkansas will remain cloudy, with rain and thunderstorm chances as
the system and front move through the state, though nothing severe
is expected. Rain chances will be higher over the W/SW portions of
the state, with a half to three-quarters of an inch possible over SW
AR. The rest of the state could see a tenth to a half an inch over
the next couple of days.

Highs the rest of the day Friday will be in the lower 40s to lower
50s over the far NW part of the state, where the cold front has
moved in. The rest of the state will have highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s Friday.

Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s over NW
AR and in the mid 40s to lower 60s across the rest of the state.
Highs Saturday will be in the lower to mid 50s over the NW half of
the state and in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the SE half of the
state.

Sunday morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s, with highs in
the 60s and 70s.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

There is not much change to the extended period. It will be
unsettled, with the upper flow eventually becoming split over time,
and ridging continuing over the Gulf of Mexico. There will also be a
large storm system cutoff over the southwest United States.

In the end, fronts will be driven toward Arkansas from the Plains by
the northern stream. The fronts will stall as they encounter ridging
to the south. Energy from the southwest system will head this way in
pieces courtesy of an active southern stream, and this will interact
with the stalled fronts.

The end result will be chances of showers and thunderstorms in at
least parts of the state just about every day. Overall, there does
not appear to be any concentrated/organized precipitation events
that will add up to anything alarming. However, there will probably
be enough rain to keep the soil wet and the rivers high.

The thing to watch will be the southwest system at the end of the
week. Data suggests the system will eject by Friday, and that may
lead to the potential of severe weather/heavy rain. It is still a
week away, so stay tuned.

Temperatures through much of the period will be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...CROSS