Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 170604 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1204 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period. Late in the
forecast winds will shift to the north as a cold front drops south
into the state. This will also bring increased cloud cover...but
precip chances will remain low until beyond this TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Latest surface observations indicate mostly clear
conditions across the forecast area. Temperatures have climbed to
near to slightly above normal values for this time of year.
Slightly warmer conditions are expected for Saturday.

Late Saturday, upper level energy, and an associated surface
reflection, will approach the state. This system is expected to
produce scattered, light precipitation during the day Sunday. The
temperature change associated with the incoming air mass will be
quite noticeable.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The period will start out rainy as a cold front exits the state into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Light rain will come to an end on
Monday as surface high pressure settles into the region amidst
persistent upper level ridging along the Western United States. This
synoptic pattern will allow west/northwesterly flow aloft to
continue through mid week, keeping our forecast conditions cool and
dry.

An upper level shortwave trough developing over the Desert Southwest
will advance eastward towards the Natural State on Wednesday into
Thursday. This embedded wave could generate precipitation, however
at this time model guidance suggests the better forcing and moisture
will remain south of the state.

However, a secondary shortwave trough should develop behind the
aforementioned vort max, leading to additional chances for rain on
Friday. For this forecast issuance, have decided to keep chances
minimal and mainly across the northern and eastern section of the
state. The ECMWF and GFS disagree on structure, depth, and placement
of the upper level trough, with the ECMWF solution providing higher
and more widespread rain chances for the state.

Expect temperatures to warm slightly through the end of the period,
with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.&&

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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