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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201941
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
241 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.Short Term...Tonight thru Wednesday...
Trof over the swrn US is swinging toward the southern Plains this
afternoon, and will acquire a negative tilt as it swings into the
region tomorrow. While all eyes are on the instability and high risk
area over TX/OK, a good portion of AR remains in a slight risk this
evening, with an enhanced risk covering the far western portions of
the state.

Low level moisture levels are quite abundandt across AR, and maximum
CAPE values this afternoon are likely in the 1500-2000 j/kg range.
Most of the short term model runs have been showing some showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southwestern quarter of the state
this evening, which is now in progres. Of particular concern is
several HRRR model runs that have been developing some supercell-
looking storms across the swrn portions of the state and moving
those northward during the evening hours, although the latest run
seem to be backing off on that a bit. In any event, BRN values are a
bit high for supercell development across the southern half of the
state this evening, so I am hedging my bets on this being more
multicellular in nature this evening.

At some point overnight the line of severe storms across OK will
start to push into the nwrn portions of AR, and into the local CWA
shortly thereafter. Outflow boundaries from the main line will
likely race ahead and trigger some development overnight across the
northern portions of the state.

By tomorrow things get a bit more interesting. As daytime heating
progresses and the line advances deeper into the state, a jet max
will rotate around the negatively tilted upper low. In the morning
the state will be under the right exit region, which may put a lid
on deeper convection. By late afternoon into the evening, the area
will start to come under the right entrance region, and combined
with the destabilizaiton effects of daytime heating, will make for
better chances for severe convection, especially across the northern
and northeastern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.Long Term...Wednesday Night thru Monday...
The long term portion of the forecast will be much quieter in
terms of weather than what is going on across the region today and
Tuesday. A summer-like pattern will be in place through the
duration with H500 ridging setting up over the southeast US/Gulf
of Mexico. At the surface, with ridging holding tight to the east,
southerly winds will remain in place and Td values will be in the
65-70F range.

To the north and west of the state, fairly active weather will
persist but precip chances will likely remain just outside the
forecast area. If the ridge were to contract a bit, northern and
western portions of the state would be most prone to seeing chances
for rain and thunderstorms. This could begin to occur near the end
of the period.

Given that it is still May and ground moisture levels remain high,
daily max T values shouldn`t get too out of hand. Highs will likely
approach or barely exceed 90F across the southeast half of the state
on a near daily basis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  84  66  86 /  30  50  80  20
Camden AR         72  88  71  91 /  10  40  60  20
Harrison AR       65  78  59  86 /  60  90  40  10
Hot Springs AR    71  83  67  88 /  20  70  60  20
Little Rock   AR  70  86  70  89 /  20  50  70  20
Monticello AR     71  88  73  91 /  10  10  40  20
Mount Ida AR      71  80  64  87 /  30  80  50  20
Mountain Home AR  66  80  61  87 /  40  80  70  10
Newport AR        68  85  68  87 /  20  30  70  30
Pine Bluff AR     70  87  71  89 /  10  30  60  20
Russellville AR   69  82  64  88 /  30  80  60  20
Searcy AR         69  86  68  87 /  20  40  70  30
Stuttgart AR      71  86  71  90 /  10  20  60  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...67