Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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853
FXUS64 KLZK 230010
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
610 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.AVIATION...23/00Z TAF CYCLE

Periods of rain wl cont to affect the region thru much of tngt,
with widespread MVFR/IFR conds expected. N AR can expect some LIFR
conds as well. Meanwhile, a strong CDFNT wl move acrs AR fm the NW
later this evening, eventually moving thru the terminal sites by
23/12Z. KHRO/KBPK could see a wintry mix of precip as colder air
moves in overnight. Breezy S/SE winds wl shift to the W/NW behind
FROPA. Precip wl taper off Wed mrng, with MVFR CIGS prevailing
thru the rest of the PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 250 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Synoptic weather pattern this afternoon and through the short term
period forecast will consist of 500MB trough and embedded low
swinging eastward through the plains, sandwiched between two areas
of ridging. The first low amplitude ridge is located over the
southeast US and pushing east, while the second, more amplified
ridge, lingers across West Coast. Across the Natural State,
temperatures are in the 40s and 50s with overcast skies and light
rain. At the surface, a cold front was observed pushing eastward
through central Oklahoma.

Expect rainfall to increase over the state this evening and tonight
and linger through Wednesday morning as the upper level low/trough
and cold front sweep through the region. Tightly packed isobars will
continue to cause a tight pressure gradient across the state,
resulting in strong winds through the overnight hours. Additionally,
strong low level jet will kick up over the eastern half of the state
this evening and overnight, helping to reinforce strong wind gusts.
However, at this time continue to anticipate winds remaining below
advisory criteria.

Chances continue that the state will see a quick transition to
freezing rain, sleet, and snow late tonight through Wednesday as the
cold front catches up with lingering moisture. However, at this time
have not included any accumulation amounts as it appears that this
will be yet another race between ample moisture and the arrival of
subfreezing air, resulting in mostly flurries/isolated trace amounts
of wintry precipitation.

Behind the front, southerly winds will become west/northwesterly,
advecting cold air into the state. Skies will gradually clear
through Wednesday and Thursday, with dry conditions expected to
finish out the period. Temperatures will be mild for this time of
year, with highs in the 40s/50s, and lows in the 30s/40s tonight and
upper 20s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Not much change in the synoptic scale pattern across the CONUS and
much of N America during the long term portion of the forecast.
Intense area of low pressure will remain focused across the Hudson
Bay region providing a favorable environment for cold air across
much of the country.

Locally, surface ridging will periodically build in and retreat with
frontal boundaries moving through every few days. Northwest flow
aloft will continue to provide an avenue for some weak shortwave
energy to pass over the area.

Much of the forecast period will be dry with only brief precip
chances mentioned Saturday and Tuesday. H500 shortwaves will
traverse the region around those days and appear to be a bit more
robust, which should provide for more sufficient lift across the
area.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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