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000
FXUS64 KLZK 230515
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.AVIATION...
Expect IFR ceilings to prevail during this period. Some
variability should occur across northwest sections, especially
after 18z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 244 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Frontal boundary is in place near the AR/LA border this afternoon
and much of Arkansas has benefited from much cooler northeasterly
flow in its wake. While climatological highs will turn out to be
a bit higher due to temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s around
midnight CST, daytime temperatures have struggled to climb out of
the lower 60s for many locations. These readings are much closer
to normal lows for this time of year rather than daytime highs.

Rain will continue to overspread much of the state from south to
north through Monday with much of the expected precip to occur
tonight into Sunday. Surface and mid-level low pressure over north
Texas at this time will slowly drift south and east in the weak
zonal flow over the area. The greatest lift will be focused over
southern into central parts of the state where the flash flooding
threat will persist through at least Sunday morning.

By Sunday night into Monday morning, these features will begin to
lift northeast of the area with less overall focus for persistent
rainfall over the area. With this in mind, have tapered off POPs
from west to east near the end of the period. Temperatures will
remain well below normal through the period due to the influence
of northeasterly flow, cloud cover and rain. By Monday, temps will
increase by several degrees but will still remain below normal
for this time of year.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

Pattern can best be described as muddled or perhaps unsettled with
the medium range models differing on the specifics during the
majority of the period. On the plus side, modeling is showing good
agreement in the synoptic scale with the upper pattern becoming
more amplified as the period progresses before it flattens out once
again. That being said, a blend of forecast solutions will be used.

Period initiates with a large trough over the northern plains with
weak high pressure sitting the gulf. This will keep a rather steady
stream of moisture over the area and consequently precipitation
chances will be ongoing.

Several shortwaves rotating through the aforementioned trough on
Wednesday and then again on Friday will enhance precipitation
chances even more. There will be lulls in the precipitation between
these waves but overall the atmospheric set up will still require at
least chances of precipitation, higher over the south and east with
lesser chances north and west.

There remains questions with both timing of these shortwaves and if
they will make it into the state completely, stall out, or retreat
to the north. In other words, there remains a lot of uncertainty
with this particular forecast.

Temperatures are just as tricky as the precipitation forecast but
overall normal to slightly below normal readings are expected. Temps
will be dependent on the timing and locations of these shortwaves
but regardless, widespread cloud cover will keep temperatures in
check. Went a few degrees below MAV/MEX guidance for this period.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Dallas-Grant-Hot Spring-Jefferson-
Ouachita-Pike.

&&

$$


Aviation...55