


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
977 FXUS64 KLZK 131118 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 618 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 -Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun- Mon. -Hot and humid conditions will become more widespread by mid-week with many areas expected to see heat indices of 100 to 105 at times. -There will be continued chances for widespread rain and thunderstorms through Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state today and again Monday. There will be some breaks in precip at times, but several rounds of precip are expected with the bulk of the activity influenced by daytime heating and afternoon instability. Remnant boundaries and sfc features like the MCV just to the west will help focus precip and may encourage activity to persist into the overnight hours. Weak shear with PW values in excess of 2 inches will contribute to some of these storms producing very heavy rainfall. With today and tomorrow`s increased coverage in precip and cloud cover, temperatures may remain near to below normal across a good chunk of the state. The areas most likely to see these reduced temperatures include west and northern portions of the state. Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state. This will lead to a general increase in temperatures and limit precip chances to isolated, diurnally driven activity. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Occasional impacts from RA/TS activity will be possible across area terminals through the period. This could lead to periods of reduced cigs/vsby as well as erratic/strong wind gusts. Portions of west and north Arkansas may see some of the most widespread coverage through the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions and S-SW winds up to 10 kts are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 72 89 72 / 70 30 60 10 Camden AR 93 73 93 72 / 50 30 50 10 Harrison AR 83 68 84 68 / 80 30 50 20 Hot Springs AR 90 71 90 72 / 70 30 60 10 Little Rock AR 91 74 91 74 / 60 30 60 10 Monticello AR 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 50 10 Mount Ida AR 87 70 88 71 / 80 40 60 20 Mountain Home AR 84 70 85 69 / 80 30 60 10 Newport AR 90 74 90 73 / 60 20 50 10 Pine Bluff AR 92 74 92 74 / 50 20 50 10 Russellville AR 88 72 89 72 / 80 30 60 20 Searcy AR 90 73 90 72 / 60 30 60 10 Stuttgart AR 91 75 91 75 / 50 20 50 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...67 AVIATION...67