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000
FXUS64 KLZK 042330 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Temperatures are maxing out in the lower 70s to the lower 80s this
afternoon and for the next couple of days, due to widespread cloud
cover and rainfall, as well as cold frontal passage by the end of
the short term period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s, dropping
into the lower 50s to lower 60s by Friday night, as a cold front
makes its way across the state.

A warm front lies across Oklahoma, southwest AR, and northern LA
today. A cold front extends from a storm system over south-central
Canada southwards across the Midwest into the south-central U.S. An
upper trough covering much of the Rockies extends far into Canada.
This trough will continue to track eastward through the period, with
several short-wave troughs. The strongest SWT during the period will
come late Friday, as the trough axis moves east of the forecast area
(coinciding with cold frontal passage). A ridge will build across
the western half of the CONUS during this time, putting Arkansas in
a region of northwest upper flow beginning early Friday and
continuing into the long term period.

Cold front will move into northwest portions of the state late
Thursday night, moving into central Arkansas around the mid-morning
period Friday, and exiting the state late Friday evening. As of noon
Friday, measured rainfall is highest across southwest portions of
the state, where almost four-and-a-half inches were measured since
this morning. Elsewhere in the state, between a Trace to around two
inches were measured since this morning. An additional quarter to an
inch-and-a-half of rainfall will be possible with the rain forecast
through late Thursday night, with the higher amounts expected across
southwest, west, and northern portions of the state.

A colder and drier air mass will follow the cold front. Dewpoint
temperatures ahead of the front were in the 60s to lower 70s. Behind
the front (late Friday evening), dewpoint temperatures will have
dropped to the lower 40s across northern portions of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

To begin the period, high pressure is expected to take control of
the weather pattern through much of the long term. Rainfall will
gradually come to an end in the short term with a cold front pushing
through the state. This front will bring cool and dry air into the
state.

Temperatures are expected to be average to below average through the
period. This weekend, temperatures are forecast to be on the cooler
side with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Highs will then rise back
into the mid 70s to lower 80s early next week. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 30s (across the north)
to mid 40s across the state this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Mixed VFR to IFR condns were noted around the FA Wed evening, w/
precip covg mostly focused over Nrn and Srn AR, and more SHRA/TS
in Ern OK approaching Wrn AR. Overnight, expect IFR CIGs to
persist at Nrn terminals, w/ additional precip expected to move
thru overnight, resulting in intermittent MVFR to IFR VISBYs.
Regarding Cntrl and Srn terminals, covg of precip is expected to
build in over Wrn AR and move across the FA overnight and into
Thurs morng, resulting in MVFR to IFR CIGs/VISBYs as well. Precip
should dissipate from W to E after 12Z Thurs morng, and IFR CIGs
are fcst to prevail thru at least early Thurs afternoon. Winds wl
become N/Wrly at area terminals tomorrow afternoon as a cdfrnt
moves thru the region.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  72  55  76 /  90  90  30   0
Camden AR         64  72  59  76 /  90  80  40  10
Harrison AR       62  73  51  69 / 100  70  10   0
Hot Springs AR    64  76  59  79 / 100  90  20   0
Little Rock   AR  66  75  60  80 / 100  90  30   0
Monticello AR     67  77  62  79 /  60  90  50  10
Mount Ida AR      62  77  55  78 / 100  80  20   0
Mountain Home AR  62  72  53  70 / 100  80  10   0
Newport AR        64  71  57  75 /  80 100  30   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  76  61  79 /  80  80  40  10
Russellville AR   64  77  55  79 / 100  80  10   0
Searcy AR         64  73  56  78 /  90 100  30   0
Stuttgart AR      66  74  61  77 /  80  90  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....233
AVIATION...72