Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 192353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
653 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Updated for 00z Aviation Cycle.


VFR conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR overnight as
ceilings lower to near 2500 ft for most terminals by sunrise.
Occasionally IFR may be seen for HRO/BPK. A few showers may
develop, but coverage will be limited... thus kept out of all but
the BPK TAF. Expect NW winds 10-15 knots, gusting to near 20
through the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 225 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018)


Main concerns in this forecast cycle are low, with initial rain
chances and lower ceilings, elevated winds and an elevated wild
fire danger. Then the next significant chance of rain will be late
in the week and into the weekend.

This afternoon, the main area of convection had pushed out of AR,
and only seeing isolated lighter showers around the surface low
pressure in MO to northern AR. A low pressure trough was located
south from the low which has brought the elevated winds, then a
cold front was noted over eastern OK, which will bring cooler air
to the area. Do expect some light showers to affect northern AR
the rest of today and into Tuesday associated with the low
pressure. Some clearing was seen over central parts of AR, but
some overcast clouds are rotating around the surface low and will
filter back into AR over the next 12 to 18 hours, before thinning
and lifting out of AR later Tuesday. Winds have become elevated
from the southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts
associated with the surface low pressure. Temperatures and dew
points were mainly in the 60s to some 70s south.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Night

The forecast will start with some clouds and a low chance of
showers mainly over northern AR, mostly clear to partly cloudy
central and south. The overcast lower clouds are expected to make
it over much of the north half of AR, with the slight chance of a
shower or light rain, this afternoon, evening and tonight. A bit
unsure how far south the ceilings will make it. Any light rain
should hold over the northern half of AR. Winds will remain
elevated from the southwest to west this evening, then lower a
bit tonight. Lows tonight will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.
Tuesday will see some clouds in the morning, while a few spotty
showers may still be possible over northeast AR until the surface
low pressure moves out of the region. Winds will remain a bit
elevated on Tuesday until the pressure gradient loosens. Some
clouds will be seen early over the north to east, then become
mostly sunny with highs in the 50s to some 60s southwest to south.
Dry Tuesday night.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Monday Night...

Progressive upper level pattern to persist thru the extended
term. Initial Nwly flow aloft will give way as a ridge builds
across the area by late in the week.

At the surface, high pressure will slide to the east, allowing a
southerly flow to establish itself by Thursday. By Saturday quite a
bit of moisture should be in place, with dewpoints in the 60`s and
highs topping out well into the 70`s.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the upper level ridge will be breaking
down, and the next frontal system will be pushing into the area.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the timing of
this system, so I have kept POPs broadbrushed through the weekend
into Monday. If everything comes together, and the timing is ideal,
this could lead to another round of severe weather.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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