Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 022356
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021
.DISCUSSION...
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.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. S to SW wind will become light overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/
DISCUSSION...
WV imagery shows a weak, dirty ridge over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, resulting in maximum insolation in subsidence on the
backside of the upper trough that moved through these parts
yesterday. At the surface, return flow has resumed, and will allow
temps this afternoon to increase about 15F over yesterday`s.
Temperatures will continue warming under the ridge to above-normal
by Wednesday afternoon, and well-above by Thursday, when temps most
locations will top out in the upper 70s/lower 80s.
Meanwhile, an upper trough currently off the west coast will make
landfall in SoCal by 00Z Thursday, resulting in SW flow aloft over
the area. The trough will pass through the panhandles Thursday
night, then move to the ArklaTex by 18Z Friday. -SHRA may nick the
upper Colorado River valley Thursday morning, but otherwise this
looks like a dry system for us. Of greater concern will be high
winds in the Guadalupes/Delawares as the trough passes to the north
Thursday. The NAM shows a modest mtn wave signature with this
trough, which would be expected given the synoptic scenario. We`ve
issued a high wind watch for this. Wind advisories may be needed
for the plains as a Pac front arrives w/the trough, followed by a
cold front Thursday afternoon/night. Perhaps the biggest concern
this forecast will be fire wx on Thursday, especially
Guadalupes/SE NM. Depending on ERC trends/evolution over the next
couple of days, Thursday could be a Red Flag day.
Unfortunately, this will take temps down below-normal
Friday/Saturday, w/Saturday being perhaps the coldest day this
forecast as highs most locations plateau in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Temps rebound to normal Sunday, and then back above normal
Monday/Tuesday under generally zonal flow aloft.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 32 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 30 75 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 38 74 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 36 76 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 37 68 48 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 30 73 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 33 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 32 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 32 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 31 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
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