154
FXUS64 KMAF 121728
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

The warming trend will continue today and peak on Friday with
some hot temperatures. We are already seeing the warmer conditions
this morning with most locations only in the 60s, up about 5
degrees from this same time yesterday. Mid level thermal ridging
developing over western portions of the area this afternoon will
only accelerate warming today with highs in the upper 90s along
the Pecos River and into the 100s along the Rio Grande. Further
east, highs will warm, but not as much with low 90s expected for
the Permian Basin.

Mid level ridging expands Friday with the thermal ridge nudging
east a bit. This is likely to be the peak of this heat spell with
highs well above normal for mid September (of course this will be
Friday the 13th). So make sure those mirrors don`t slip out of
your sweaty hands and definitely don`t open an umbrella inside
(shouldn`t need one with a zero PoP). Highs will top out near 100
for most locations outside of the higher terrain. Midland Intl`
still has around a 40% chance of hitting the century mark, but
given the recent greenup from all the rain, we may just stay
under.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show suppressed
heights and thicknesses with the southern CONUS ridge becoming
more broad and diffuse, while the western CONUS trough develops to
the northeast over the northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains
and associated mid-level moisture and instability associated with
the trough bypasses the area. With the weakening ridge,
temperatures decrease after peaking on Friday, although remaining
above average. Main uncertainty we are seeing now is with a
potential tropical system moving inland from Baja California into
the Desert Southwest late this weekend into early next week.
Moisture associated with this system could bring increased chance
of rain over the area, but at this time impacts remain uncertain.

Highs around 10 degrees above average in the 90s, 80s in higher
elevations, and triple digits along the Rio Grande Saturday into
Sunday will be followed by a continued cooling trend into Monday
and then leveling off around 5 to 10 degrees above average, with
highs only reaching into the 80s over a larger portion of the
Lower Trans Pecos with 90s and above elsewhere. Lows will be close
to 10 degrees above average as well, in the 60s, 70s and above
over most of the Permian Basin, near the Rio Grande each night
into next week. Rain chances aside from that associated with the
aforementioned system in the eastern Pacific remain slim to none,
but grids are showing a chance of storms over the Davis Mountains
Thursday evening in advance of a weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

VFR conditions prevail. Winds will be out of the south and
southeast, becoming slightly evaluated with intermittent gusts of
near 20 Kts this afternoon and evening, especially in the
vicinity of KHOB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67 100  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 65 100  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   68  99  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            70 101  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           65  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    65  98  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  93  64  90 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  98  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  98  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     68 102  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...95