684
FXUS64 KMAF 130516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Clouds have cleared most of the area this afternoon as winds have
veered to the west and drier air mixes to the surface. Temperatures
have responded to the sunshine and have climbed well into the 80s.
After a quiet night with lows near normal our attention turn to the
north as an upper trough slides across the Plains. This system will
push a front south across the region throughout the day. With sunny
skies and little to no cooling behind the front expect high
temperatures to be very similar to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Upper ridging remains in control for Tuesday, leading to another
quiet, warm, and dry day. By Wednesday morning, return flow helps to
sharpen and shove the dryline back along/west of the Pecos River.
We`re still eyeing up the next trough to swing over Baja into
northern Mexico Wednesday but this feature has trended a bit slower
compared to previous model runs. While synoptic ascent (and shear)
may be more limited with a slower trough, convergence along the
dryline should still be enough to get a few storms going as
supported by the NBM and ensemble clusters that argue a 55-70%
chance of rain across the Permian Basin. While shear may be limited,
CAPE should be high enough to warrant a few severe storms. We`ll
continue to have a better grasp on Wednesday`s possible storms as we
get a little closer. The next cold front is also set to arrive
sometime on Thursday and could stretch rain chances through Thursday
across the northern and eastern Permian Basin.

After the warm day on Tuesday, temperatures take a slight dip on
Wednesday with the added clouds/storm potential before a more
noticeable cool down comes for Thursday with the front. This
cooldown is likely short-lived as late-week ridging takes us right
back into the 90s by Saturday.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

MVFR/IFR CIGs are moving west across the Permian Basin. However a
northwesterly wind shift behind a weak cold front should keep
these CIGs from affect the TAF sites. Will have to keep a close
eye on MAF/HOB as these could briefly drop. Otherwise VFR
conditions and light winds will continue.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               56  92  66  89 /   0   0   0  30
Carlsbad                 57  92  60  92 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   63  96  70  92 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Stockton            60  95  67  92 /   0   0   0  40
Guadalupe Pass           60  84  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                    54  90  61  88 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                    48  88  55  87 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     58  92  67  89 /   0   0   0  30
Odessa                   59  92  68  89 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                     59  95  66  93 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10