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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262304
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
604 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast soundings and current observations suggest IFR conditions
will prevail for much of the next 24 hours. Hi-res models bring a
shortwave thru the area overnight, then a break Tue
morning/afternoon before the main round hits with the arrival of
the upper trough after the end of the forecast period. Latest HRRR
brings FZRA thru KMAF/KCNM overnight, w/lighter amounts KHOB.
Models are not capturing the extent of the warm nose on KMAF 18Z
RAOB, so FZRA should be the main precip type, at least in the
short term.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020/

DISCUSSION...
..Major Winter Storm Beginning to Impact the Area with Accumulating
Ice and Snow...

We are in for a dangerous winter storm over the next 48 hours for
much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Temperatures have
struggled to reach freezing this afternoon from I-20 north and
forecast models continue to be too warm. Most locations have seen
fog and drizzle this afternoon with the heavier precipitation
shifting east. There have been reports of accumulating ice on trees
and elevated surfaces across the northern Permian Basin into Lea
County.

Don`t let the current lull in precipitation fool you, because it
will get much worse tonight! The upper low to our west will continue
to dig into N. Mexico overnight. Southwest flow ahead of this system
will stream upper level moisture across our area while Gulf
moisture overrides the cold airmass at the surface. A disturbance
will increase lift across the region tonight and cause a
widespread round of heavy precipitation. Temperatures will fall
below freezing quickly this evening and drop into the 20`s by
morning over much of our area. The main precip type will be
freezing rain across the Permian Basin with sleet mixing in
further west. We will likely even see thunder which will only lead
to higher amounts of icing where it occurs. In general, we are
expecting 0.25" to 0.5" of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces
like trees and power lines from Midland/Odessa to Snyder. Roads
will accumulate less ice due to the warm temperatures we saw over
the last week, but still expect major issues and delays by Tuesday
morning. Sleet will mix in with the freezing rain from
Midland/Odessa west and is likely to still cause major travel
issues. Lighter amounts will be seen along the I-10 corridor
tonight, but cold temperatures there will also cause slick
conditions. Have opted to issue an Ice Storm Warning for the
northeast Permian Basin due to the higher ice accumulations and
keep the rest of the warnings and advisories as is. The Hard
Freeze Warning for much of the area for our first freeze of the
season will also continue.

We should see another lull in activity Tuesday afternoon as the
upper low digs further into Mexico. Most locations will not get
above freezing so hazardous travel conditions will continue through
the day Tuesday. The upper low then lifts northeast over the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday with yet another round of
precipitation. Heavy freezing rain and sleet will occur across the
Permian Basin and only add to the likely ongoing issues with travel,
power outages, and tree damage. Further west across SE NM and the
higher terrain of W TX, sleet and snow will be the primary precip
types. Snow totals could reach over half a foot in portions of Eddy
and Lea counties by Wednesday morning. Sleet could change over the
snow even across the western Permian Basin, but amounts would be
much less. Temperatures will warm above freezing on Wednesday
afternoon allowing for much of the ice and snow to melt.

Many cold records will be broken during this event. It is likely we
will see record cold lows today, Tuesday, and Wednesday. We will
also set record cold high temperatures today and Tuesday. The
earliest snow to occur in Midland was a Trace on October 28th 1980.
We will see if that can be beat with this winter storm!

Temperatures return to the 60`s and 70`s later this week just in
time for some Halloween trick or treating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     28  31  31  50 /  90  80  90  20
Carlsbad                       25  31  29  45 /  60  80  70  10
Dryden                         37  45  35  65 /  70  50  60   0
Fort Stockton                  28  33  30  55 /  70  60  60   0
Guadalupe Pass                 18  28  24  39 /  50  80  50   0
Hobbs                          23  29  27  43 /  70  80  80  10
Marfa                          28  34  23  55 /  30  40  30   0
Midland Intl Airport           28  32  30  51 /  90  80  90  10
Odessa                         27  32  28  51 /  90  80  80  10
Wink                           29  35  29  53 /  70  70  70  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Tuesday for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Loving-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
     Andrews-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Martin-
     Midland.

     Ice Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$

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