Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 101719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1119 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019


See 18z aviation discussion below.



Low ceilings are expected to improve to VFR this afternoon with
light and variable winds. Winds will become southerly by this
evening with low ceilings and possibly low visibilities
redeveloping tonight and continuing through most of the morning


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019/


Cold rain continues across portions of the region this morning,
with the axis of rainfall extending from northern Mexico
northeastward across the Trans Pecos and into the Big Country and
Concho Valley. Light showers are possible further north of this
area through early this morning, echoed by high-resolution
guidance. However, as a cold front continues to push south across
the area, drier air filtering in is stymieing precipitation
across far northern zones, thus limiting the potential for snow
early this morning, with overall trends indicating that
precipitation will largely come to an end prior to temperatures
falling below freezing. The main exception when it comes to wintry
precipitation potential looks to be the higher terrain (> 6000
ft) of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where temperatures will
be cold enough for snow this morning. However, accumulations will
be light, generally around a half inch, though some locally higher
amounts may be possible across mountain peaks. As the 130kt+
300mb jet responsible for the rainfall we`ve received thus far
continues to progress around the base of the trough and
northeastward toward the Middle Mississippi Valley today, rainfall
will gradually come to an end from north to south, with dry
conditions expected for most by lunchtime. However, a southern
stream low remains just southwest of El Paso early this morning
per latest water vapor imagery, and is progged to quickly
translate eastward across the Rio Grande Valley, Big Bend Area,
and Stockton Plateau through this afternoon. While the impressive
fetch of subtropical moisture will be east of the region by the
time the aforementioned low passes, there could be some
deformation zone showers early this afternoon, mainly along and
south of I-10. Some of this precipitation is already evident on
the regional radar mosaic early this morning, with banding
rainfall south-southwest of El Paso. Given cold advection in the
wake of this morning`s cold front, as well as the passing low this
afternoon, temperatures will be well below normal today despite
gradually clearing skies. Look for highs in the 40s across
Southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and the
higher terrain, and highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees confined
mainly to far southern zones and across the Van Horn/Hwy 54
corridor. Mostly clear skies and light winds are then expected
overnight tonight, with lows expected to drop into the 20s and 30s
areawide. There may be a brief window for some fog or freezing
fog early Wednesday morning, especially across portions of
Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, though a return to
southerly surface flow by then may keep fog development at bay.

Weak northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft beginning Wednesday
will maintain quiescent weather conditions across Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas the next several days, with a weak
disturbance initiating from the Pacific Northwest expected to pass
north of the region Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm back
toward normal in the 50s and lower 60s by Thursday, and above
normal Friday through the upcoming weekend. Late Sunday into
Sunday night, the next cold front will push through most of the
region, yielding a return to below normal temperatures on Monday,
with a reinforcing push Monday night keeping cool temperatures in
the forecast for next Tuesday. There is some disagreement between
guidance regarding precipitation chances next Sunday night and
Monday, with the GFS maintaining a dry FROPA, and ECMWF generating
light QPF along and behind the front. Given uncertainty that far
out, as well as expected dry antecedent conditions, have
maintained a dry forecast through the extended.


Big Spring                     47  32  56  35 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       48  31  57  34 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         51  37  56  34 /  70   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  46  33  58  37 /  60   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  33  48  35 /  40   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  30  55  33 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          48  26  53  30 /  50   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  33  55  36 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  33  55  36 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           48  32  57  34 /  40   0   0   0




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