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000
FXUS64 KMAF 090845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a shortwave gliding over Baja
with an upper ridge centered across West Texas and eastern New
Mexico. As this feature pushes northeastward today, scattered
thunderstorms become possible, but won`t really get going until the
shortwave gets close enough, closer to 21-23z. Storms fire off first
across the Davis Mountains, Stockton Plateau, and into the Big Bend,
moving into the lower Trans Pecos and southeastern Permian Basin as
the evening progresses. These storms will be fairly high-based with
inverted-V thermal profiles suggesting severe, gusty winds to be
possible, especially with downbursts/microbursts. While large hail
isn`t expected, locally enhanced shear due to outflow may allow for
isolated cases of severe hail. Beyond this afternoon/evening, upper
ridging rebuilds, keeping Saturday dry outside of a stray
shower/storm popping up off the dryline in the eastern Stockton
Plateau.

Aside from the storms today, the main story moving into this weekend
will be the heat, likely the warmest days of the year so far for
several spots. Between upper level ridging present and downsloping
surface flow behind a surging dryline each afternoon, high
temperatures soar well into the mid to upper 90s for most with
triple digits found in the lower elevations of the river valleys and
the eastern Permian Basin/western Low Rolling Plains.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Upper-level ridging will preponderate the long-term forecast, with
little to no chance of rain.  Thicknesses/temperatures will increase
through Tuesday as an upper trough develops off the SoCal coast,
amplifying the ridge, then level off into the extended. NASA SPoRT
LiS suggests quite a bit of soil moisture remains from recent rains,
suggesting NBM temperatures may be a degree or two too warm, at
least until things dry out a bit more.  In addition, cluster
prototypes downplay the strength of the ridge somewhat days 5-7. The
SoCal trough is forecast to open by Tuesday, then move through the
area midweek. Models suggest high winds in the Guadalupes
Tuesday/Tuesday night, but it`s getting a little late in the spring
for that.  Once the trough passes through West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, another develops off the west coast, and ridging resumes
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

VFR conditions continue throughout the period. Light winds this
evening out of the south and east overnight become a bit stronger
after sunrise with diurnal mixing ensuing. CNM and HOB will see
some gusts over 20kts over the course of the day with other sites
seeing an occasional gust here and there. A few storms are
possible in the mid-late afternoon but should stay east of any
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  66  99  64 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 96  63  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   99  69  99  68 /  10  30  10   0
Fort Stockton            97  65  98  65 /  20  30  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  63  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    95  61  96  59 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    91  56  90  54 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     99  66 100  64 /  10  20   0   0
Odessa                   98  66  99  65 /  10  20   0   0
Wink                    100  64 101  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...16