Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 042329
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with a S to SW wind gusty at times through sunset. Isolated
storms over the mountains... CNM will be the closest but not
included.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Persistence rules.  The synoptic pattern has changed little over the
past 24 hours, w/an upper ridge still centered over SE AZ/SW NM, and
extending up thru the wrn CONUS.  A trough just off the west coast
is still slated to make landfall by 12Z Wed, and this will nudge the
ridge into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Thicknesses are
still set to peak Wed afternoon, for what looks to be the hottest
day this forecast.  Given that, Heat Advisory criteria is right on
the fence on the lower threshold.  What`s more the NBM has been
running a bit warm lately, so this would argue in favor of letting
the mid shift make the call once again, much of it depending on what
transpires this afternoon.

Models continue nudging the ridge east, to central Texas by 00Z Sat,
before it begins building back west into the extended.  Despite
this, thicknesses gradually decrease after Wed, and plateau Sat into
the extended, keeping temps about 5F above normal for most
locations.

Rain remains elusive, confined mainly to the higher terrain for the
next day or so.  After that, isolated activity coming off the
Sacramentos into the NW zones each day can`t be ruled out, as well
as an occasional shortwave calving off the west coast trough and
rotating up the backside of the ridge.  But chances remain minimal
until the ridge breaks down.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     74 103  75 102 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       72 104  72 104 /  10  10  20  10
Dryden                         74 102  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  74 103  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  94  71  93 /  20  10  20  10
Hobbs                          71 101  71 101 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          63  97  63  96 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           75 103  74 102 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         75 104  74 102 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           75 106  75 105 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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