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000
FXUS64 KMAF 022356
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
556 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. S to SW wind will become light overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a weak, dirty ridge over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, resulting in maximum insolation in subsidence on the
backside of the upper trough that moved through these parts
yesterday.  At the surface, return flow has resumed, and will allow
temps this afternoon to increase about 15F over yesterday`s.

Temperatures will continue warming under the ridge to above-normal
by Wednesday afternoon, and well-above by Thursday, when temps most
locations will top out in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough currently off the west coast will make
landfall in SoCal by 00Z Thursday, resulting in SW flow aloft over
the area.  The trough will pass through the panhandles Thursday
night, then move to the ArklaTex by 18Z Friday.  -SHRA may nick the
upper Colorado River valley Thursday morning, but otherwise this
looks like a dry system for us.  Of greater concern will be high
winds in the Guadalupes/Delawares as the trough passes to the north
Thursday.  The NAM shows a modest mtn wave signature with this
trough, which would be expected given the synoptic scenario.  We`ve
issued a high wind watch for this.  Wind advisories may be needed
for the plains as a Pac front arrives w/the trough, followed by a
cold front Thursday afternoon/night.  Perhaps the biggest concern
this forecast will be fire wx on Thursday, especially
Guadalupes/SE NM. Depending on ERC trends/evolution over the next
couple of days, Thursday could be a Red Flag day.

Unfortunately, this will take temps down below-normal
Friday/Saturday, w/Saturday being perhaps the coldest day this
forecast as highs most locations plateau in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

Temps rebound to normal Sunday, and then back above normal
Monday/Tuesday under generally zonal flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     32  75  45  77 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       30  75  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         38  74  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  36  76  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  68  48  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  73  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  74  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         32  74  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           31  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

$$