403
FXUS64 KMAF 111125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures persist across the area today. The hottest
  temperatures (highs between 104-108, locally nearing 110) will
  be along the Rio Grande and in the Pecos River Valley.

- Temperatures cool down a touch this weekend before a cold front
  brings even cooler conditions early next week.

- Near daily rain chances are forecast for western portions of our
  area through the end of the week. By early next week, rain
  chances become low to medium areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough moving across
northern portions of the CONUS. Closer to home, lee troughing is
evident at the surface. This, along with a low-level jet, has helped
keep southerly winds breezy this morning especially across the
eastern half of the area. Today`s forecast is largely similar to
yesterday`s. Hot temperatures (mainly in the upper 90s and above 100
degrees) persist areawide under a broad area of upper-level high
pressure. Highs between 104-108 degrees will be common in the Pecos
River Valley and along the Rio Grande, with some locations once
again nearing 110 degrees along the international border. Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today,
mainly in and near the higher terrain west of the Pecos
(particularly in the Davis Mountains, where we have 20-40% PoPs).
While the overall severe threat is low, like yesterday a few
thunderstorms may become strong to marginally severe, capable of
producing gusty/damaging winds and/or some hail (generally up to the
size of quarters). Heavy rainfall leading to localized flash
flooding will also be possible.

This evening, a front approaches northern portions of our area,
becoming diffuse near the CWA border. Additional showers and storms
will develop along this front and may track into our northernmost
counties tonight, but chances tend to be low (10-20%). Lows bottom
out in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s again tonight. Southeasterly
winds bring more moisture across the area Friday. This helps keep
temperatures closer to seasonal norms (low-to-mid 90s in general).
Moist upslope flow allows rain chances to again increase in the
higher terrain west of the Pecos Friday afternoon and into the
evening (20-40% chances).

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Showers/storms over the western portions of our region brought along
by a dryline Friday afternoon should diminish during the evening.
Upper level troughing over the northern half of the US and upper
ridging over northern Mexico result in zonal to northwesterly flow
aloft Friday night into Saturday. Meanwhile, a surface low
developing over the central Plains and a surface high over the
eastern Gulf steers winds out of the south and southeast Saturday.
As a result, Saturday`s highs will top out a few degrees warmer
compared to Friday`s. Triple digit heat is expected near and along
the river valleys, while highs reach the upper 90s for almost
everyone else. Similar to Friday, isolated to scattered shower/storm
development will be possible over the higher terrain west of the
Pecos River Saturday afternoon.

The upper trough begins to deepen over the Plains and the Midwest
early next week, pushing a cold front toward our area. Where the
front ends up will significantly influence temperatures and rain
chances. For now, NBM shows the front reaching the northern portions
of our region sometime Sunday morning, then a reinforcing push
finally allows it to clear our area Monday night into Tuesday.
Given the slow-moving nature of this solution, temperatures and
rain chances may vary as we head through the next few days. Highs
Sunday are forecast to reach the upper 80s within our northernmost
counties and the higher terrain, with 90s for most of the region.
Cloud coverage and the advancing front brings highs mainly in the
80s Monday and Tuesday, although low 90s look to return to the
Pecos River valley Tuesday afternoon. Low to medium rain chances
span areawide Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. Warmer and drier
conditions return by midweek due to an upper ridge building back
over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites, with MVFR CIGs staying east of
any terminals. Have included PROB30s at PEQ and FST for this
afternoon for TS coming off the nearby higher terrain. Southerly to
southeasterly winds remain between 8-14 kts at most sites through
the day (with gusts generally between 20-25 kts persisting at MAF).
Winds become breezy again this evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  75  96  74 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                106  73  97  70 /  10   0  20  20
Dryden                  100  75  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           103  73  96  71 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           96  72  88  68 /  10   0  30  20
Hobbs                   103  69  94  68 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    96  63  91  61 /  50  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport    100  74  94  73 /   0  10  10   0
Odessa                  100  73  94  73 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                    104  74  96  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...13