576
FXUS64 KMAF 220833
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
333 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

- Temperatures climb 10 to 15 degrees above normal with a breezy
  west wind on Saturday. Critical Fire Weather is expected across
  Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin

- High temperatures next week 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

- Rain chances enter the forecast by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Winds shift out of the west and southwest during the day today
and that will aid in bringing temperatures well above normal into
the mid to upper 80s. Tonight sees temperatures fall into the
upper 40s to low 50s. By sunrise Sunday morning, a weak cold front
approaches from the north and moves through the Permian Basin.
Winds shift to the north and northeast, but remain light.
Temperatures behind the front end up in the mid to upper 70s(this
is still above normal). From the Pecos River Valley to the south
and west, temperatures stay on the much warmer side with highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Despite the passage of the front, conditions
remain dry for the short term.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Zonal upper level flow causes dry conditions and above normal
temperatures to continue early next week. However models show an
upper level trough or low pressure system moving into northwestern
Mexico by Wednesday potentially bringing the area our first
decent chance for rainfall this year. The exact path of the trough
is uncertain, with the ECMWF and GEM taking it across the Big
Bend and into Central Texas. The GFS lifts this feature farther
north into Oklahoma, though it does at least have negative tilt to
it that would be crucial for rain chances. Negatively tilted
troughs have southerly winds in the mid levels and south to
southeasterly winds in the lower levels providing moist air
advection. Positively tilted troughs tend to have southwesterly or
westerly flow at all levels pushing moisture east of the area
before the lift arrives keeping us dry. NBM PoPs are at least 30%
for much of the area Wednesday and Thursday and that looks
reasonable at this time given the set up. Cannot rule out severe
weather with this system but it is too far out to get too much
into these specifics and will monitor over the coming days.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Light southerly winds continue through the morning. Winds shift
more westerly during the day and gusts pick up. VFR remains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Latest weather models have backed off on wind speeds today and
critical fire weather conditions are no longer expected. A Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for most of the area today for
near critical conditions due mainly to very low humidities in the
single digits and very high ERC values. Dry conditions continue
until an upper trough brings our first decent chance for rainfall
this year. Areas that have been suffering in a drought for the
past several years may see wetting rains Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  51  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 85  50  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   87  51  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  55  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           75  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    84  49  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    79  46  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     87  50  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   86  51  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     88  47  83  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93