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000
FXUS64 KMAF 160718
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
218 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Moist and unstable conditions will exist across most all of SE
NM-PB-Lower Trans Pecos today, in addition an outflow boundary
currently across the cntrl PB is a consideration for today`s
convective potential. At 3h a speed maxima will be nosing into the
PB during peak heating. NAM12 SB CINH is forecast to be rather
strong and is probably why models are reluctant to develop storms
today across PB. Exception is NAM4K and HRRR which show tstms
developing at 21z and 00Z, respectively, with NAM4K favoring
central PB and HRRR nrn PB. NAM4K was showing development on last
night runs and initiates storms in close proximity to
aforementioned surface boundary. Either way tstm coverage will be
much less than Sat, but there could be a brief window for a strong
to severe storm or 2 across the PB today. Mon will be much warmer
farther e as the dryline surges e into the very far ern edge of
CWFA. Meanwhile a mid/upper level low will have moved into the
4-Corners area. The dryline will quickly move w Mon evening with a
very tight mstr gradient. A strong low-level jet Monday evening
will increase convergence and a 3h jet will be positioned in nrn
MX resulting in a good set-up for nocturnal severe storms to
develop with locally heavy rain. NAM12 has been consistent wrt
time (03Z-06Z/Tue) and space (cntrl-nw PB) while ECMWF is farther
s. By 18Z/Tue tstms are expected to have mostly moved e of the
CWFA. This should leave Tue PM with little convective potential
and highs 85-90 in most areas except n and e where rain cooled air
may keep high temps in the U70s-L80s. As the mid/upper low and
assocd trof move e Wed dry air and more stable conditions will
hold, except far s. By Thu low-level mstr will have returned wwd,
but minor ridging aloft general provides unfavorable set up for
tstms. Fri mid-level flow backs and low-level mstr deepens and
instability increases favoring a few dryline storms Fri-Sun. Other
than Mon high temps have trended up slightly, but still near
seasonal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  66  90  61 /  20  10  20  50
Carlsbad                       91  58  89  55 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         92  68  94  66 /  10   0  10  40
Fort Stockton                  92  65  94  62 /  10   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 84  59  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          87  59  87  55 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          87  50  87  49 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           89  65  93  62 /  20  10  10  40
Odessa                         89  65  93  61 /  20  10  10  40
Wink                           94  62  95  58 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$