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052
FXUS64 KMAF 201907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor shows there is a connection of upper-level moisture
in the sw flow aloft to Hurricane Lorena near Baja Calif. MAF`s
12Z sounding does show the presence of mid-level instability and
we are off to good start to building SB instability with temps
already largely in the L90 by 19Z. We expect the surface heating
in the theta-e gradient and moisture in the mtns will be
sufficient to initiate scattered storms this PM across the PB. A
few strong storms with hail/downburst winds and locally heavy rain
are possible today, especially n near a boundary and in the mtns.
Despite a modest LLJ tonight we don`t foresee storms continuing
through the night, at least not across the PB. 5h height/vorticity
do indicate the periodic presence of shrtwv trofs in the sw flow
aloft, however much of it is likely to be convective feed back
from model generated QPF? Models do indicate there will be a mid
and upper-level moisture surge Sat AM that indicates possible
early development of storms in the Trans Pecos that could lead to
scattered-numerous SHRA/TSRA SE NM/part of the PB? We are concerned
that there could be too many clouds thus limiting SB instability
and thus emphasizing the importance of a shrtwv trofs and/or
storms to develop and move off the mtns. Precip certainly could
linger into Sun AM. PW`s are forecast be a plus 2-3 standard
deviations from the Trans Pecos to PB Sat PM. Local interests
should know that heavy rain is likely with storms that develop and
flash flood watches/warnings will be possible through Sun. SPC
day 2 marginal risk of severe storms is mostly focused around
potential for downburst winds and to lesser degree hail. Mid-level
moist axis will shift s and e Sun focusing concerns into Trans
Pecos far SE PB. Models drop a closed upper low INVOF sw AZ Tue PM
and eventually kick it out Thur to the nw of our area, still
uncertainty with this. We could still get some precip, especially
across the west Mon-Thur. General consensus is that temps will
cool off from recent unseasonably hot to unseasonably warm to near
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  87  70  88 /  20  40  40  20
Carlsbad                       68  85  65  89 /  30  50  40  10
Dryden                         73  93  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  70  87  68  87 /  50  40  50  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  77  62  80 /  30  60  50  10
Hobbs                          67  81  64  86 /  50  60  60  10
Marfa                          62  82  60  82 /  70  60  70  50
Midland Intl Airport           71  87  69  89 /  30  50  60  20
Odessa                         71  87  69  89 /  40  50  60  20
Wink                           71  87  68  89 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$