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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231905
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Relatively dry air and light winds underneath flat anticyclonic flow
aloft will make for another cool night with lows largely in the 55-
60 degree range. Dry air will hold into Mon PM and as mid-level flow
strengthens the lee trof/low-level thermal ridge becomes more
developed. As such it will be about 5 degrees warmer than today,
with highs U80s-N90. Dwpnts will trend noticeably higher Tue AM and
lows will trend up too. Meanwhile a broad mid-level trof moves e
across the nrn-cntrl plains states pushing a front s. Front won`t
arrive until after peak heating and on Tue high temps will probably
be another 3 degrees or so warmer. Front arrives across nrn Lea
County and nrn CWFA around 00Z, I-20 near 03Z, and I-10 06Z-09Z.
Looks like a decent isallobaric high in wake of front, could be
briefly windy but mostly breezy (15-25 mph), except thru GDP Pass
where high winds are possible. A lagging shrtwv trof will approach
early Wed AM with precip initially confined to SE NM/NW-N PB, but
expands s and e thru the day with fairly widespread isentropic
ascent I310-315K. Best coverage will likely occur before 21Z Wed
and we will continue to keep PoPs in the chance category. GFS lags
even more energy and keeps precip into Thur AM, we`re skeptical
about that at this point. Surface high pressure/clouds and
especially if it rains will make Wed`s high temps have a real fall
feel, 65-75 in most areas except far s-sw. Moisture probably will
not be scoured out Thur AM and even though it will be coolish,
probably a little above normal. Warmer/drier Thur-Fri with mid-
level ridging by Fri then flow transitions back to the sw Sat-Sun,
possibly bringing a more moist flow by Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  90  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  88  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  58  88  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  87  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          50  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           58  89  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  89  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           57  90  62  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$