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000
FXUS64 KMAF 272342
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

Lingering showers may impact HOB and/or MAF during the first hour
or two of the forecast period, though impacts are expected to be
minimal with VFR conditions prevailing. Gradually clearing skies
are expected overnight, with NW winds becoming light and slowly
veering to the E/SE through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

An upper low was located over KINK and is being sheared apart and
moisture-starved by a one-two punch of a strong subtropical jet and
substantial dry slotting. A broad and weak deformation zone with
attendant light showers remains from near KCMN and from there east-
northeastward across the southern South Plains. Once again, KMAF
gets jobbed as only a trace of precip was recorded early this
morning, and the streak of days without measurable precipitation at
Midland International Air and Space Port continues at 57. We will
hold onto some low PoPs over the far northeastern Permian Basin for
this evening for any lingering activity, but for the most part dry
conditions will prevail. Skies may be slow to clear over
southeastern New Mexico this evening; elsewhere skies will be
mostly clear overnight. A cold front will then move across west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico during the early morning hours
Sunday, with winds becoming northerly as modest surface ridging
builds south. Lows Sunday morning will range from near 30 over
northern Lea County NM to the lower 40s along the Rio Grande.

Sunday looks to be a nice day (if you like dry and sunny) under
increasingly northwesterly flow aloft. Winds will begin to veer to
an easterly direction during the day with highs near normal for late
November. Winds will continue veering to a southerly direction
Sunday night as surface lee troughing becomes established. Lows
Monday morning will be similar to those Sunday morning, with 30s and
40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through  Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

The complexity of the long range forecast is about as low as you
could expect for this time of year. A weak ridge axis will be
solidified early this coming week and pretty much hold through
Friday. Temperatures will be above normal by 5-10 degrees all week
areawide as highs in the mid-60s to low-mid 70s will be a common
occurrence throughout the region. Outside some passing high clouds,
dry, dry, and more dry will be the forecast until perhaps the
following weekend when guidance shows a weak disturbance that will
be settled off the Baja coast finally kick eastward. A plethora of
shortwaves will roll east-southeast well to the north, but any front
will wash out before it even enters the southern plains. Not until
late in the forecast period when the next cold front really takes
shape and slides through the area. Current progs are Friday night
into early Saturday AM, but that`s an eternity in these parts. No
freezes expected low temp wise as lows will generally be near to
slightly above normal through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               39  63  36  73 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 35  62  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   47  67  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            41  64  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           38  56  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    33  61  35  70 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    35  62  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     39  63  39  71 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   40  63  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     35  64  33  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...84