


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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937 FXUS64 KMAF 131646 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1146 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). Rain chances Monday look similar to those of today. Localized flash flooding remains possible. - Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Mid-level ridging continues over the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. In the middle of these two features, troughing is evident over the plains, extending down into south-central Texas. Here in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, we remain more or less wedged between the western ridge and the trough (which is just east of our area), with northerly mid-level flow over the region. What this means for us is that the better synoptic scale forcing has been displaced further to the east, which translates to generally lower rain chances today than previously forecast. Convective-allowing models do still generate showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but these will be driven primarily by upslope flow, outflow boundaries, and any disturbances in the flow aloft (in other words, forcing will be more localized and otherwise weaker in general). As a result, the best rain chances today are for the Davis Mountains down towards the Big Bend (40-60%). Meanwhile, chances in Southeast New Mexico and far West Texas are in the 20-40% range, while eastern portions of our area have a 10-30% chance. Because the expected coverage of shower/storm activity will be less than previously forecast (and because yesterday afternoon/evening remained mostly dry), the Flash Flood Watch will expire at 12Z this morning and will not be reissued. However, we will still be keeping a close eye on localized flash flooding potential, especially in/around the higher terrain. A similar story unfolds Monday afternoon/evening, where the best rain chances will be in the higher terrain (50-80%), while the remainder of the region will have a 20-40% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, highs remain 5-8 degrees below normal for this time of year (upper 80s and low 90s areawide), while lows remain closer to normal (upper 60s and low 70s). Sprang && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Overall rain chances begin to decrease across the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau heading into the middle of the coming week. Weak upper level ridging begins to take hold over the southern US and subsidence will keep the higher rain chances over the western half of the CWA. Best chances each day will remain over the Davis Mountains and portions of southeast NM. Nailing down location and timing of precipitation will be done in the short term as the next day`s convection will be somewhat dependent on how the previous day`s activity evolved. Highs will gradually move towards normal by the end of the week with most locations reaching into the mid 90s and upper 80s in the higher elevations. Overnight lows stay near or just above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s as low level moisture stays in place. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Aside from an hour or two of MVFR cigs this afternoon, VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. Although forecast soundings develop widespread cu fields this afternoon and Monday, convective chances are too low for a mention. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 90 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 90 68 88 70 / 30 20 20 10 Dryden 91 72 92 72 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 91 69 92 71 / 10 0 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 83 64 82 66 / 40 10 20 10 Hobbs 88 67 88 68 / 10 20 10 10 Marfa 84 62 85 62 / 50 10 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 89 70 91 71 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 88 69 89 71 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 90 70 91 70 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...99