232
FXUS64 KMEG 111107
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
607 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Another warm and dry day is forecast for the Midsouth today, as
high temperatures reach the upper 80s and lower 90s. Rainfall from
what will be Tropical Depression Francine will enter northeast
Mississippi late tonight, and will spread through the remainder of
the Midsouth on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially over northeast Mississippi. Strong winds will also
prevail across the Midsouth on Thursday, with gusts up to 50 mph
possible Thursday over northeast Mississippi. A brief tornado
also cannot be ruled out over northeast Mississippi on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine continued to churn over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico early this morning. KLCH radar showed outer rainfall
bands were nearing the LA coast.

Francine will likely weaken to a post-tropical depression prior to
entering the Midsouth on Thursday, as deep layer shear and dry air
entrainment begin to take its toll. Storm total QPF has been
reduced for the Midsouth, but is still in excess of 4 inches over
portions of northeast MS. Following coordination with WFO Jackson,
a Flood Watch has been issued for portions of northeast MS from 1AM
through 7PM Thursday. Given the dry antecedent soil conditions,
the flooding threat may be focused more in the urban environments
of Oxford and Tupelo, and perhaps Memphis.

There remains a 50 mph gust potential over northeast MS during the
day Thursday, down slightly from yesterday`s forecast. The
potential high wind corridor will extend north to south, between
Oxford and Tupelo. An areawide Wind Advisory will be issued in
subsequent forecast update, and there remains a potential for High
Wind Warning issuance closer to the event. Francine`s surface low
pressure center will track near or just west of Memphis late
Thursday night. Prior to this, east/northeast winds in the Memphis
area will gust as high as 40 mph late Thursday afternoon and
evening. Francine becoming post-tropical will reduce the heavy
rain threat somewhat, but not the strong wind threat.

A Marginal Risk for tornadoes remains for portions of northeast
MS along the AL border and the Savannah TN area on Thursday. The
limiting factor for tornadoes will be modest surface-based
instability. Ensemble spread for surface-based CAPE is lower than
previous guidance, increases forecast confidence in the limited
CAPE scenario. That said, CAPE may become locally adequate for
tornado development if sunny areas temporarily develop between
rain bands. Model-derived hodographs appear supportive for
tornadoes to the south and east of Tupelo on Thursday.

A midlevel dry slot will wrap into Francine`s remnant low
Thursday night, further limiting rainfall amounts. Gusty winds
will continue, but rising central pressure will limit the high
wind threat by late Thursday evening.

A Rex blocking pattern will develop Friday into the weekend, as
Francine`s remnant low remains nearly stationary south of a strong
500mb height ridge east of the Great Lakes. This pattern will
result in at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly east of Memphis.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

VFR conditions expected for the first half of the cycle. Hurricane
Francine will push across Mississippi and bring convection to KTUP
shortly after 00z. As Francine churns, precipitation chances
increase at the remaining terminals. SHRA and lowering of CIGS and
VSBYs will be possible at all but KJBR.

MVFR and IFR conditions are likely, but there is potential for
LIFR CIGs just outside this taf cycle. LLWS up to 50kts will need
introduced at KTUP next cycle as the system nears TUP.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     MSZ013>016-022>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM