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262
FXUS64 KMEG 210111
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
811 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for heat advisory cancellation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations as of 8 pm have shown heat indices have dropped below
the 105F threshold across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Therefore the heat advisory has been cancelled. An
additional heat advisory may be needed for this region tomorrow.

Convective activity has begun to wind down. An isolated shower or
storm will remain possible this evening in the I-40 corridor and
for points south after midnight.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019/

.DISCUSSION...

Hot and humid conditions prevail across the Midsouth this
afternoon as an upper high is centered across the Ohio and
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Heat indices are borderline advisory
criteria in the advisory area with isolated locations exceeding
the minimum threshold. The heat advisory will remain in effect
until early evening.

A slow westward moving upper shortwave is enhancing the coverage
of thunderstorms across portions of north Mississippi this
afternoon, mainly southeast of Oxford. Expect the coverage of
storms to decrease this evening but still remain a chance into
tonight.

Hot and humid conditions are again expected on Sunday, but heat
indices may barely approach advisory criteria over northwest part
of the forecast area across northeast Arkansas. Will hold off on
issuing additional heat advisories until further model runs given
lower confidence for Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will again
be likely across northeast Mississippi Sunday afternoon with
higher chances than today across the rest of the area.

The upper ridge to the north will break down early next week
giving way to a mean upper trough the eastern US. A cold front
will move through the forecast area late Monday into early
Tuesday providing a likely chance of showers and thunderstorms. A
few storms will be strong, but the chance of severe weather will
be minimal at this time. A noticeably cooler and drier airmass
will provide pleasant conditions through the rest of the week with
below normal temperatures for July. Increased moisture will
provide the next chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday,
mainly in the southern part of the forecast area.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for most of the forecast period.
Scattered thunderstorms are currently over portions of north
Mississippi and west Tennessee. This activity should slowly die
off especially after sunset. More thunderstorms are expected to
develop on Sunday mainly over portions of north Mississippi. Some
low clouds may move into north Mississippi overnight and break up
by mid morning. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 knots
for much of the forecast period.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$