Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 090231
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
931 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.UPDATE...Evening Update

Its been another evening across the Mid-South. Current
temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s. Latest surface
analysis has extending from North Kansas, western Missouri and
dipping south into West Tennessee. This coincides with the light
radar returns being picked up by KNQA. Mild overnight lows are
expected tonight given strengthening southerly winds and
increasing cloud cover. Did a brief update on the PoP and
temperature grids but overall the forecast is on track. Rain
chances will start to increase shortly after midnight across
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
The Wind Advisory issued earlier this afternoon will be in effect
from 7AM to 5PM on Sunday. Gusts nearing 40mph will be possible.

17

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A few showers are still ongoing across the northeastern portions
of the forecast area this afternoon while a large portion of the
area is sunny and warm. These showers should diminish over the
next few hours and the evening should be rather quiet across the
Mid South. We then turn our attention to the Slight Risk of Severe
Weather for tomorrow. A few showers and storms may be possible
early Sunday morning but those should be well under severe limits
and they should be weakening as they push into the area. Then as
the front approaches later in the day storms will develop and move
through the evening hours. This will be the time that the severe
weather threat kicks in...Sunday afternoon through the evening
hours. Mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2500 J/KG appear likely by early
Sunday afternoon. We should be capped for most of the day but as
the front moves in storms should form and start off in the form of
a few supercells and as the event unfolds the storm mode should
transition to lines and bowing segments. All modes of severe
weather will be possible with damaging winds and large hail being
the main threat. Tornadoes will also be possible but the greater
threat appears to be damaging winds and large hail. Also as the
storm mode transitions the threat for flash flooding increases. A
Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is also in play for portion of
the forecast area especially over north Mississippi. A Wind
Advisory has also been issued for tomorrow for areas along and
west of the Mississippi River for winds of 20 to 25 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph possible.

Beyond Sunday, split upper flow will continue across the lower
48. A zonal subtropical branch will maintain convection along the
gulf coast early in the week. A few chances for showers and storms
will be possible early next week. Temperatures will be cooler
through mid week. We will dry out the latter half of the week into
the weekend.

AVIATION...00Z TAFs

VFR conditions should prevail through the night although mid and
high level clouds are expected along with strengthening south
winds at all sites. LLWS over 50kt under 2km is expected prior to
sunrise at MEM, JBR and MKL. Rain showers will impact much of the
Midsouth tomorrow, likely beginning as showers then a round of
thunderstorms. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR as the steadier
rain/thunderstorms move in ahead of a cold front. IFR or LIFR
conditions are likely in association with any on station
thunderstorms.

30

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Mississippi-Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Sunday for Dyer-Lake-
     Lauderdale-Obion-Shelby-Tipton.

&&

$$


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