Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 210932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
432 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Slightly above normal temperatures and a chance of rain late
Sunday night and Monday. Otherwise, limited chances of rain will
well above normal daytime temps appear likely through the end of
the month.

The persistent upper level ridge over the Southeast will flatten
Sunday night, in response to a northern branch trof passing
through the upper Midwest. The flattening of the upper ridge will
expose the Midsouth to the westerlies on Monday, while a weak
surface cold front passes through. The combination of this front,
surface heating and moderate westerlies will provide the Midsouth
with best chances of measurable rain over the next week.

The upper ridge will amplify on Tuesday with the exit of the
northern branch trof. Concurrently, the surface front will return
north as a warm front. The 00Z GFS was quite aggressive in
generating storms just north of the Arklamiss on on Tuesday,
likely a downstream extension of storms earlier in the morning
over the Red River valley. The ECMWF and Canadian models depicted
less rainfall under the building midlevel ridge. Reality may lie
somewhere in between, with isolated storms possible Tuesday in the
more humid air over east central AR and north MS.

Weak west/southwest flow aloft will prevail over the Midsouth
Wednesday and Thursday, ahead of a southern branch upper low
lifting northeast from the southern Rockies. Areas north of I-40
could see isolated storms, along the northwest periphery of a
building low level thermal ridge and midlevel convective cap.

GFS and ECMWF models depict the upper ridge over the southeast
U.S. retrograding west and amplifying by next weekend. The GFS
places the 500mb geopotential height center directly over the
Midsouth at 5970 meters next Sunday afternoon. This would be a
stronger than normal upper ridge for midsummer, let alone a full
week past the autumnal equinox. A dry and hot start to October is
appearing more likely.



VFR conditions should prevail at all sites for the next 24-30
hours. Expect light South winds tonight, increasing to 7-10kt




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