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000
FXUS64 KMEG 181627
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1027 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Minor changes to the grids with higher temperatures along the
front, raised a couple of the western areas highs, however, those
have already occurred as the cold front is starting to move
through the western parts of the area. Cold front is wide and
northwest winds won`t happen till this afternoon, grids seems on
target for this. The temperatures will generally drop once the
front passes. Expect precip to end around noon to 1 pm along and
west of the Mississippi River.
TLSJr

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

UPDATE...
Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020/

DISCUSSION...

Currently...A mid level trough is moving across the plains as a
strengthening 1009 mb surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes.
The assoicated cold front is moving through the Red River Valley
and headed toward the Mid-South. Ahead of the front winds are
increasing with gusts to over 30 mph across the Delta. Temps have
been rising into the 50s and lower 60s through the night as
southerly winds advect in milder air.

Today...The cold front will race east entering NE AR by mid
morning and exiting NE MS by early this evening. A swath of
showers will drop a around a half inch of rain across the Mid-
South. Could be a rumble of thunder across north MS but
instability, elevated or otherwise, is marginal at best. Winds
will shift to the NW behind the front with cold air moving in.
Expect temps to drop into the 40s across eastern AR, the MO
Bootheel and NW TN by late this afternoon as skies begin to clear
out.

Tonight through Monday...A 1045 mb arctic high pressure system
will slide from Canada into the center of the U.S. through Monday
with cold air pouring into the Mid-South. Lows will be in the 20s
and lower 30s by Sunday morning with highs in the 30s and 40s by
Sunday afternoon. The deep freeze really takes hold Sunday night
into Monday. Expect lows in the upper teens to lower 20s by
Monday morning and highs in the upper 20s and 30s on Monday. Wind
chills early Monday morning will drop into the single digits and
teens.

Monday night...This period looks rather interesting. A potent
piece of upper level energy will rotate through the region along
with a bit of moisture. Best moisture moves into NE AR, MO
Bootheel around 06z and then pushes ESE into the Memphis metro
then NE MS. Model soundings show a few hours when the dendritic
growth zone is nearly saturated. Would not be surprised to see a
swath of very light snow squeezed out of this arctic airmass. For
now will introduce some flurries. Given the likelihood of more
cloudiness low temps Monday night will be a little warmer than the
previous forecast though still very cold. Readings will range from
the upper teens to lower 20s by sunrise Tuesday. Once again wind
chills will dip to the single digits and teens early Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Below normal and dry as arctic high
pressure slowly weakens over the region. Highs in the 30s on
Tuesday will climb to the 40s on Wednesday. Tuesday night will be
the last really cold night for a while with lows deep into the
20s.

Thursday and Friday...00z models still suffer from some major
disagreements with regard to the details of the late week system.
The GFS is milder and tracks the surface low well north while the
ECMWF moves a surface low along the gulf coast. The ensemble
systems show a wide variety of solutions but one thing is sure,
rain chances will increase toward the end of the next week.

SJM

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/
A cold front to our west will move eastward across the area today
resulting in showers, lower ceilings and changes in wind
direction. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions to persist through this
afternoon as the front moves southeast out of the area. JBR CIGs
should see improving conditions by 13Z, then MKL and MEM will
follow around 18Z. Winds will continue to strenthen with sustained
winds around 15 kts and gusts approaching 27 kts. Winds will
decrease near the end of the TAF period.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$