567
FXUS64 KMEG 141728
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1128 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Dry and warming continues through the end of the week with highs
in the low 40s and lows in the 20s. A new system will bring rain
back to the Midsouth Friday and Saturday before bringing more cold
air. Lows could drop to below 15 degrees beginning Monday next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 239 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

After last week`s winter storm, the past few days have given the
Midsouth much needed tranquility. Aloft, strong zonal flow
currently exists to the south of an amplified trough located in
eastern Canada. Confluence in this regime has helped to bring a
large region of subsidence over the eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure. Slowly but surely, these zonal winds will advect east
with a warming trend through the end of the week.

In the background of the eastern CONUS upper pattern, a cutoff low
off the coast of California will begin to become ingested into
the broader westerlies starting Thursday. Downstream ridge
amplification will only aid in warming temperatures within a more
southerly surface regime. By Friday, this system will eject out of
the Rockies in Texas harboring a surface low along the Red River
Valley. Just behind this surface low will also be a very strong
cold front that will slingshot east. A combination of DPVA, low-
level warm advection, and forcing from a quickly advancing cold
front will bring rain to the Midsouth Friday and Saturday. The
highly progressive nature of this system should keep our rainfall
totals under 1.5 inches across the region, although locally higher
amounts cannot yet be ruled out.

Drier weather reappears Sunday behind the cold front as the upper
pattern organizes into a very large longwave trough centered over
the Quebec/Ontario border, stretching out to Idaho. Therefore, the
origin of this airmass looks to be Arctic in origin and will be
poised to bring some of the coldest air of the season yet. LREF
guidance brings a 50 percent chance of low temperatures below 18 F
down to the Mississippi/Tennessee border Monday and Tuesday
night. GFS/ECMWF both display this threat too with sub-20 F
temperatures making a foray into north Mississippi on the same
nights. Regardless, it is looking more and more likely that
strongly anomalous cold air mass will park itself over the
Midsouth come early next week through the end of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

VFR. A weak cold front will move into the region tonight and
shift winds to the northeast through the end of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3