Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 161127

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
627 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022


12Z Aviation Discussion Below


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/


Early morning temperatures are in the middle 60s across most of
the Midsouth. Expect sunrise temperatures in the low 60s across
most of the area.

Today we transition to a pretty benign weather pattern. Surface
high pressure over the Plains will shift east over the middle and
southern Mississippi River Valley today and a broad but weak ridge
currently over the Rockies will shift over the Midsouth over the
next 48 hours. These features will dominate our weather pattern
for most of the upcoming work week. Mostly dry conditions are
expected although far northern portions of the Midsouth could be
clipped by a few showers midweek. Mild temperatures are expected
for the next couple of days with a warming trend through the work
week. Expect lows in the 50s Tuesday morning with 60s or low 70s
Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will be in the low to
middle 80s today and Tuesday warming into the upper 80s to low 90s
Wednesday through Friday.

Late Thursday into Friday, a trough will deepen over the Plains
setting up southwest flow from south Texas across the southern and
middle Mississippi River Valley. A cold front is expected late
Friday or early Saturday. Expect temperatures to turn about 10-15
degrees cooler next weekend with a return of showers and
thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has included portions
of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and northwest
Tennessee in a risk for severe thunderstorms in their day 6
outlook. The ECMWF looks somewhat supportive of strong to severe
storms but the GFS is quite a bit slower and less robust in its
solution. We will not add any mention of severe storms in the HWO
on this forecast update.



12Z TAFs

Some showers are moving across north Mississippi and may impact
TUP so some brief MVFR conditions may be possible, however
confidence was too low to include it in the TAF. Wind is
northerly 6-10kts. Wind should relax and be light and variable




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