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000
FXUS64 KMEG 201524
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1024 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this morning places a cold front
from Southeast Lower Michigan back through Southern Missouri and
Northern Arkansas. Meanwhile, KNQA WSR-88D radar trends indicate
rain has mostly moved out of the area except for Monroe County
Mississippi but should depart within the next hour. As of 10 AM
CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 50s at most
locations. Will update forecast to adjust rain chances, cloud
cover and temperatures to account for short term trends.

Update will be out shortly.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/

UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 236 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Rain continues to fall across much of the Mid-South this morning
as the area is sandwiched between a stationary front to the south
and an approaching cold front to the north. The cold front will
push through the CWA today. As it does, the rain will shift south
and cooler temperatures will filter into the region.

High pressure will begin to build into the area tonight. Although,
winds may be gusty initially this evening, expect them to
diminish quickly during the overnight hours. The combination of
light winds and clear skies will allow for low temperatures to
drop into the mid 30s across Northwest Tennessee, the Missouri
Bootheel, and portions of Northeast Arkansas. As a result, frost
will develop before sunrise. Will issue a Frost Advisory for these
locations.

The SFC high will remain over the Mid-South through Sunday Night.
Sunday will be chilly across the area despite plenty of sunshine.
Cold air advection will keep highs in the 50s. Sunday Night could
be another night for frost development. Although, not as
confident as the SFC high will begin shifting east and cirrus
clouds may begin moving into the west.

Next week looks like a quiet weather week as only a couple of
upper level disturbances may bring small chances for showers but
for the most part most locations will stay dry. Temperatures will
remain below normal with highs in the 60s.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
12z TAF Cycle

Lower ceilings cover the region to begin the period, with IFR to
MVFR category prevailing at all terminals. Conditions will improve
quickly this morning, with VFR category returning and skies
clearing into the afternoon hours. Winds will be from a northerly
direction and gusty this afternoon as high pressure builds.

ZDM


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for Clay-Greene.

MO...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Dyer-Gibson-Henry-Lake-Obion-Weakley.

&&

$$