Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 082055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
355 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2020


Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the Mid-South. A
few scattered mid-to-high clouds are located over eastern AR and
western TN. An upper-level ridge is analyzed over south CONUS. A
mid-level trough is located upstream over central MO. Temperatures
are in the mid 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees.

Clouds will increase this evening and into the overnight hours
over the northern portions of the Mid-South as the aforementioned
weak mid-level trough clips the northern portions of AR and TN as
well as the MO Bootheel overnight and into Sunday. The weak
disturbance will also bring a slight chance for isolated showers
and storms over those areas. The trough will be slow to push out
of the region with the upper-level jet remaining very weak. It`ll
finally track through central and eastern TN on Monday. Primarily
diurnally driven isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the northeastern parts of the Mid-South on Monday and into
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain consistent as we reach the mid
90s for highs and low to mid 70s for lows. Heat index values will
be near 105 degrees over a large chunk of the region through at
least Tuesday.

Another weak shortwave will develop over the Central Plains and
track through the Mid-South on Tuesday which will bring a better
chance for precipitation. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will be possible through Wednesday as the trough pushes
east-northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s for highs
with heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

Guidance suggests a stationary boundary will park over the
northern portions of the Mid-South or just to the north on
Wednesday which will bring enough surface convergence to develop
scattered showers and storms through at least the end of the week.
We`ll see better chances for rain during the afternoon hours with
lower chances during the overnight hours.  Precipitation should
bring slightly cooler temperatures during the second half of the
week, however, it won`t be a huge break from the heat. Highs will
be in the low 90s with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.



18Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions should continue across much of the Mid-South during
the forecast period. A few isolated thunderstorms may move across
extreme northern sections of the Mid-South during the overnight
hours. Some patchy areas of fog may develop overnight in the KMKL
area. Winds will be light and variable for much of the forecast




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