Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 041956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
256 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023


Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Showers will continue to move west and along the Mississippi
River ahead of a cold front. Tomorrow, the cold front will
push through the area and bring more widespread showers and
a few storms throughout the region. Behind the cold front, highs
for the weekend are expected to be in the 60s and lows in the 40s.


(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Upper level water vapor imagery depicts an upper level ridge
pushing off of the East Coast as a broad upper level trough starts
to move in. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to form
ahead of a cold front, associated with the main trough, that will
move across the area Thursday and Thursday night.

Isolated to scattered showers are confined to areas west and
along the Mississippi River for today. Due to the lack of
instability, few thunderstorms are anticipated with CAPE values up
to 500 J/kg in east Arkansas. However, NAM model shows
precipitable water(PW) values around 2 inches in that area so
locally heavy rainfall is possible Thursday. QPF values could
reach up to 1.25 inches with the heaviest showers in the Missouri
Bootheel and the most northeastern part of Arkansas. Lower
rainfall amounts are expected as you head south and east towards
northeast Mississippi where only a tenth of an inch will occur.

Following the cold front, temperatures will drastically decrease
15-20 degrees through the weekend. Highs are expected to be in
the 60s and lows in the 40s. Dewpoints are also expected to be in
the 40s due to the cold front advecting drier air from the north.
By Monday, both temperatures and dewpoints will increase slowly as
an upper level ridge starts to build into the region.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Current radar shows showers near the KJBR terminal. Showers are
beginning to creep up the Mississippi River, but low confidence in
the showers reaching the KMEM terminal, results in a rainfree
forecast elsewhere.

A cold front will move across the region late tonight and bring
widespread coverage to the area. Instability is limited, so
thunder was not included. Guidance is hinting at MVFR CIGS as the
front moves across the region. CONSHORT guidance is suggesting 400ft
CIGS at JBR but MVFR CIGS elsewhere.





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