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000
FXUS64 KMEG 290457
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.UPDATE...

See the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 955 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/

UPDATE...
A potent Hurricane Zeta made landfall over southeast LA midafternoon
today, and still maintained an eye over southeast MS 6 hours
after landfall. Movement was northeast at 30 knots. This will
accelerate overnight.

Main short term concern remains flooding. Northeast AR and the MO
bootheel will see the greatest potential for training convection.
This concern should taper off with Zeta lifting out, and the
arrival of dry slot a few hours after midnight.

Forecast was recently updated with minor adjustments to hourly
rain chances, based on radar trends and latest short term guidance.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020/

DISCUSSION...

A stationary front has budged a little bit to the northwest this
afternoon and is located from Greenville, MS to near Corinth, MS.
A wide range of temperatures are occurring across the Mid-South as
a result of this boundary. Current temperatures are in the lower
50s across portions of Northeast Arkansas while it is in the mid
70s across Northeast Mississippi. Light to moderate rain
continues to fall over much of the Mid-South as tropical moisture
interacts with this boundary. The main rain shield will continue
to lift north this evening. A lull in the rain may occur this
evening for areas east of the Mississippi River once the band
lifts north.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Zeta is just offshore of the
Louisiana Coast. Outer rain bands associated with Zeta will move
northward into Northeast Mississippi by later this evening into
the overnight hours. Can`t rule out some gusty winds occurring
across Monroe County, MS, but at this time speeds are expected to
remain below advisory criteria.

Zeta will quickly lift off to the northeast while an upper low
that is located across the Southern Plains will begin moving
eastward. Rain associated with the upper low will move begin to
move into Eastern Arkansas by sunrise. Rain will spread back
across the Mid-South through the day and will linger into the
evening hours for areas east of the Mississippi River.

A long period of dry weather will occur behind the upper low as
surface high pressure builds into the area. One reinforcing cold
front will move through the area late Saturday Night into Sunday.
No rainfall is expected with the front. Weather looks great for
trick or treaters Saturday evening with temperatures in the 50s. A
frost or freeze could occur Sunday Night behind the reinforcing
front.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

A tricky forecast over the next several hours. A low pressure
center resides near MEM, with a warm front that recently lifted
through MEM. This has improved conds to VFR, but that should only
be temporary. IFR/LIFR CIGs are expected to build back in as the
cool side of the front moves back in over the next couple of
hours. JBR will continue to see IFR/LIFR conds. MKL will
eventually fall back down to IFR. Winds at all sites will also be
tricky as the surface low and front slowly lift through the area.

Expect variable winds as the surface low lifts through the area.
Winds will eventually go northwest at all sites by tomorrow
afternoon/evening and begin to gust. Conds may improve near the
end of the period, but confidence remains low at this time.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$