Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
389 FXUS62 KMFL 091654 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1254 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The H5 ridge axis is positioned over South Florida today maintains the warm, dry, and stable airmass over the area. At the surface we reside on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure supporting generally southerly flow, with the zonal component of the flow largely influence by the local sea-breeze circulations. This setup will result in another day of warm temperatures and near-zero measurable rain chances, with highs largely reaching the 90s apart from the immediate east coast. Can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles over the interior (near the area of max sea-breeze convergence), but given the dry/stable mid-lvls suspect vertical development of the cu field will be quite limited. Overnight lows will remain mild (in the low to mid 70s), with the only minor forecast concern being some stratus potential near the Lake. The ridge will flatten heading into Friday with surface low pressure moving into the SE US. A warm prefrontal regime will prevail over SFL, with 850mb temps around 20C likely, which would be near the climatological maximum observed for this time of year. Consequently warm to near record temperatures can be expected with highs in the mid to upper 90s over the Interior, with lower 90s near the immediate coast. For the east coast metro the question will be how far inland and how quickly the sea breeze pushes inland. For locations where the winds remain SWrly most of the day, highs in the mid 90s are likely, while for locations that experience an earlier sea breeze passage highs will likely be around 90. As a slight consolation the airmass will remain relatively dry so peak heat indices will only be marginally higher than air temperatures, i.e. largely in the upper 90s to around 100. Although multiple MCSs are currently progged in the warm sector south of the front on Friday, the current consensus is that the lingering presence of the ridge should mostly force those to track either north of the area, or weaken them significantly as they approach our area. As a result will keep PoPs unmentionable on Friday, but it isn`t totally impossible the Lake region gets clipped later in the day by one of these decaying MCSs. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The long anticipated weak cold front arrives in Florida on Saturday morning before stalling over the Peninsula. This boundary will be a highly weak one and thus not have strong forcing, plus the upper level pattern will be lacking energy. Therefore, limited convective showers and storms are expected across the region for the weekend. There is likely to be isolated convection due to sufficient moisture (PWATs ~ 1.2-1.5") and some locations could reach their local convective temperature with warm diurnal heating on the menu on Saturday. However, cloud coverage with the approaching front could prevent this warming. The strength of the cap, along with above normal temperatures and plentiful moisture, will be the determining factors. Weak ridging will rebuild on Sunday, inhibiting rain chances for Sunday. While a relatively benign upper level pattern is projected to remain in place through the middle of next week, there are several opportunities for quick impulses to interact with the adequate moisture pooling and hot temperatures. Thus, with the daily sea breezes, there is chance for daily isolated to scattered convective showers and thunderstorms. The temperatures will continue to trend above normal with daily highs, through the long term, will reach the low to mid 90s for most locations. Despite the frontal passage, Saturday will is forecast to remain warm due to it`s weakness. Heat indices have the potential to climb into the 100s on several days through the long term period. However, at this moment, no counties are expected to reach heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. SErly winds 10-15kts will prevail this afternoon apart from KAPF where SWrly winds can be expected. Winds will trend light and variable tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A moderate to fresh southerly wind flow across the local waters today will turn southwesterly on Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Winds over the Atlantic waters will likely reach cautionary to near-hazardous conditions Friday evening into Friday night. There will be a chance of some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach coastline through Friday. As winds trend more westerly over the weekend the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions across these areas, although winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 93 76 94 / 0 0 10 30 West Kendall 72 95 73 95 / 0 0 10 30 Opa-Locka 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 10 30 Homestead 74 92 75 94 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 10 40 Pembroke Pines 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 10 30 West Palm Beach 73 95 74 92 / 0 10 20 40 Boca Raton 74 95 75 93 / 0 0 20 40 Naples 75 90 77 88 / 0 10 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....Simmons AVIATION...Carr