616
FXUS62 KMFL 111820
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
120 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

    - Benign weather continues, with mostly clear skies and mild
      temperatures.

    - Some patchy fog could develop in areas of Southwest Florida
      early Thursday morning.

- High rip current risk continues for Palm Beach county beaches
      through early Thursday morning. .


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 118 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Gorgeous winter weather continues across South Florida and there
are no significant changes with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Generally benign weather conditions will continue across South
Florida today as high pressure over the western Atlantic remains
dominant. However, a slight pattern change approaches as a
disturbance over the Mississippi Valley slowly pushes a front south
across the deep South and the peninsula today into tomorrow. The
high axis will shift further southeast over the Atlantic in
response, and winds will veer from the northwest on Thursday as a
prefrontal boundary moves across the area. Unfortunately, meager
moisture ahead of the frontal passage (forecast PWATs less than an
inch) will mean chances for convection to develop will remain low
and mostly confined to the northernmost portions of the CWA.

Guidance continues to show a medium chance of patchy fog developing
across the interior of the CWA early this morning. This could result
in reduced visibilities; commuters are advised to exercise
caution and keep additional distance between vehicles during the
morning commute.

Temperatures through the period will remain seasonable and mild.
Highs each afternoon will peak in the high 70s and lower 80s, while
overnight lows could dip into the mid 50s across the interior and
lower 60s along the East Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

The aforementioned front will have weakened by the time it reaches
our region Thursday night into Friday, where it is forecast to stall
out into the weekend. Its continued presence over our region may
help support some isolated to scattered shower activity over the
local Atlantic waters and immediate East Coast areas, but chances
remain low (20-30%).

As we approach next weekend, a much deeper synoptic scale trough is
anticipated to develop and strengthen in the lee of the Rockies
before it sweeps into the Eastern Seaboard. This complex will drag
another front across out region late this weekend into early next
week. This will provide more of a large scale forcing mechanism
that may be enough to force some isolated to scattered shower
activity across the entirety of South FL, which is reflected in
the consensus forecast package early this morning. Nevertheless,
even with this stronger trough, guidance is not keen on deep
moisture advection occurring, so shower activity would be expected
to be more of the benign variety at this time, and accumulations
should remain below an inch for most locations.

Daily high temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s to low
80s across the region each day. Similarly, overnight lows each night
will stabilize to being in the 50s across SW Florida and low 60s for
the east coast metro.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Southeasterly winds this afternoon becoming light and variable
overnight. Light winds for much of Thursday, with northwest flow
developing during the afternoon associated with a frontal boundary
passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Benign boating conditions continue as high pressure remains in place
over the area. Light to moderate southerly winds will prevail today,
with a Gulf breeze forecast to develop over the local Gulf waters
each afternoon. Seas will also remain favorable, ranging from 3-5 ft
across the local Atlantic waters, and below 3 ft across the Gulf.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 221 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

A high risk of rip currents continues for Palm Beach county
beaches today as swell prevails. The risk should decrease
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            60  79  61  78 /   0   0  10  10
West Kendall     55  81  56  80 /   0   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        58  80  60  79 /   0   0  10  10
Homestead        58  79  58  79 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  58  78  61  77 /   0  10  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  59  79  61  77 /   0  10  20  20
Pembroke Pines   58  80  60  79 /   0   0  20  10
West Palm Beach  57  79  61  77 /   0  10  30  20
Boca Raton       57  79  61  78 /   0  10  30  20
Naples           57  74  58  75 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Thursday for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...99