591
FXUS62 KMFL 140534
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1234 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Warm temperatures and a moist air mass ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. Currently the front is moving across North
Florida and it is expected to stall over Central Florida as the
supporting dynamics lift north and east with the parent low moving across
New England. As the frontal boundary sags south, some showers (and
possibly isolated thunderstorms) could develop this afternoon and
evening around the Lake Okeechobee region and linger overnight
into tomorrow north of and along the State Road 80 corridor.

With the remnant boundary to the north and the pinched back
surface high to the southeast, the region will remain warm and
moist on Friday with additional chances for showers and possibly a
storm. Sea fog from the Gulf will need to be monitored as it could
spread across Southwest Florida overnight into Friday morning
causing reduced visibility. Conditions should improve through the
day but the convective focus will return with diurnal max in the
afternoon inland and over the lake region.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal though some cloud
cover on Friday possibly helping to cool things a few degrees
compared to today. Lower to mid 80s for highs on Friday will not
need to rebound much from morning lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

Mid level ridging over South Florida during the first part of the
weekend will gradually flatten and shift into the western
Atlantic as a deeper mid level trough pushes eastward from the
Plains and across the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface,
strengthening low pressure will move out of the Southern Plains on
Saturday and will move northeastward through the Midwest and into
the Northeast Saturday night into Sunday. The frontal boundary
associated with this system will push southeastwards and through
South Florida later on Sunday night into Monday. Mainly dry and
conditions will remain in place through the majority of the
weekend, with cloud cover slightly increasing Sunday afternoon
into evening as the front approaches. Winds will gradually veer
from the southeast on Saturday to the south-southwest on Sunday
which will lead to a continuation of the warmer temperatures
through the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across the region
out ahead of the front.

As the front approaches and moves through the region on Sunday
night into early Monday, it will be rapidly weakening as it races
away from its mid-upper level support. While there will be enough
moisture to support isolated to scattered shower activity,
thunderstorm chances will remain extremely limited as the front
passes through. The bigger story will be the relief from the
recent heat as cold air advection will be allowed to take place
behind the front. Winds will become north northwesterly on Monday
over South Florida which will bring in just enough cold air
advection to bring high temperatures back down to climatological
normals for this time of year. This looks to be short lived, as
winds quickly veer and become easterly heading into Tuesday as the
remnants of the frontal boundary potentially gets lifted north
back over the region allowing for a slight chance of showers to
return (10-20%) as well as slightly enhanced cloud cover across
the area. The uncertainty rises during this portion of the
forecast as it is towards the end of the forecast period. This
will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

Periods of BKN/OVC CIGs could result in sub-VFR conditions at all
terminals tonight. Patchy overnight fog is
possible at KAPF before winds enhance after daybreak. Winds will
remain light and variable, becoming southeasterly at 10-15 kts
mid-morning. KAPF could see winds shift from the southwest as a
Gulf breeze develops in the late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

South southeasterly winds will become gentle to moderate as the day
progresses and they will remain gentle to moderate through the end
of the week as they shift and become more easterly. A bank of sea
fog could develop tonight over portions of the Gulf waters. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less
through the end of the week while seas over the Gulf remain at 2
feet or less. Hazardous marine conditions could develop over the
Atlantic waters heading into Saturday night and Sunday as a cold
front approaches the region bringing increased winds and building
seas during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025

With persistent onshore flow continuing, a high risk of rip currents
will remain in place for most of the east coast beaches through this
evening. The rip currents risk will likely remain elevated across all
east coast beaches through the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  71  81  71 /  10   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  68  83  68 /  10   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  69  83  70 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        83  71  82  71 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  71  80  71 /  10   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  70  80  71 /  10   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   85  70  85  71 /  10   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  82  69  80  69 /  20   0   0   0
Boca Raton       83  69  81  70 /  20   0   0   0
Naples           83  68  84  69 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...ATV