Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 192333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
633 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...Brisk nely sfc winds will continue tnt into Tue as low
pressure moves across the Ohio River Valley. Cold advection will
increase thus bringing the potential for sct-bkn lake effect
clouds. A dry airmass will remain however so the LES clouds may
not become broken. High clouds however will increase throughout
the day on Tue with colder temps expected.


.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...There is still the potential for sct-bkn
lake effect clouds to develop late tonight and last through Tue
nt. Marginally unstable conditions will develop over the lake but
the airmass will remain fairly dry. Thus the uncertainty on how
widespread the lake effect clouds will become. For now will
forecast sct020-030 stratocumulus but periods of MVFR Cigs could


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 229 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018)


Tonight through Thursday...Forecast confidence is high

Southern Wisconsin will be dominated by the influence of large
area of high pressure across southern Hudson Bay and angled into
the western Great Lakes through Wednesday with cooler than normal
temps. Main concern will be a potential of stratocumulus clouds
off lake michigan later tonight into Tuesday, due to added lake
moisture. Still not very confident on this due to the drier feed
from the northeast.

A portion of the surface high will be over the area Thursday,
with temperatures closer to seasonal average in the lower to
middle 40s. Still dry through Thursday.


Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium

The upper ridge over the eastern plains and Mississippi valley
moves off, as a strong trough forms over the west coast of the
U.S. A lead shortwave pushes into the Illinois/southern Wisconsin
area as it is weakening.

An area of low pressure looks to start to develop across the front
range of the Rockies Friday...moving into the mid Mississippi
Valley Saturday. The low weakens as it moves east. Models are
a little closer, but still different in how far north the band of
precipitation moves.

The GFS is the drier, with the ECMWF and Canadian pushing in a
band of moderate precipitation.

Therefore precip type and amounts are still to be determined by
the storm track. Temperatures will be likely below normal through
the period. Still have to watch this weekend with the possibility
of a mix of snow.

Sunday night through Monday...Forecast confidence is medium

The GFS is faster bringing in a trough Sunday night with light
precipitation, while the ECMWF and canadian push this through


VFR conditions are expected through the evening. Then MVFR
clouds/ceilings may develop with moisture off lake Michigan.
However this is still questionable. Winds will be persistent out
of the northeast, rather brisk/gusty today, diminishing somewhat
tonight...especially inland.


Persistent brisk northeast winds will bring small craft advisory
conditions through Tuesday night.

Another round of small craft advisory conditions are expected late
in the week with a strong low pressure system moving through the
region. Brisk east winds will produce large waves from late
Friday night into Saturday night.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Tuesday Night through Monday...Hentz is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.