Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
203 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Mid level low over Illinois will continue to move slowly
east/northeast in response to upstream western CONUS trof, along
with a lead shortwave moving into the central plains. Meanwhile a
northern stream shortwave moves across the lake Superior area.

Fairly moist sounding this morning with some mid level drying
during the afternoon.  low level into southern WI through the
evening. Precipitable water values around 1.5" in the southeast,
lowers to around 1.0 inch by evening. As the mid level low moves
off to the east this morning, the light rain will end.  As the
low level winds turn northwest this afternoon, a cold front
associated with the northern stream shortwave will move across
southern WI into the evening. This will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Forecast sounding
show a little less than 500 joules/kg. lapse rates around 6 C/km
with zero to 3 km shear around 20-25 knots. Therefore severe
threat is minimal.

Sunday through MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

A Central Plains low will then move along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary draped across the central Mississippi and Upper
ohio River valleys.  Secondary weak area of low pressure may pass
close to southern WI later Sunday Night into Monday, so wl keep
shower and small thunder chances. Passing systems will be weak so
QPF will be fairly light, which will allow current rivers in
Minor Flood stage to continue to slowly subside.


MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium.

Weak zonal steering flow aloft transitioning to weak long-wave
ridging across the central CONUS later in the period. Temperatures
look to remain near or above seasonal normal for much of the
period with weak east to southeast surface winds resulting in
cooler by the lake conditions most days. A weak frontal boundary
wavering across the central MS Valley region may occasionally
trigger a few showers that may brush southern, and especially
south central Wisconsin, but nothing organized or widespread
anticipated, as surface high pressure moves slowly across the
Great Lakes region.



IFR/LIFR is expected until mid morning. The highest potential for
LIFR will be at KMKE and KENW.

Conditions should improve during the mid morning to mid day hours,
though ceilings may be slow to lift, especially across the east.
Right now it looks like several hours of VFR will occur Saturday
afternoon, especially south central, before ceilings fall back to
MVFR Saturday night.



Easterly winds will continue before becoming more northerly
tomorrow. Waves tonight should remain in the 2-3 foot range.

Stronger north winds will then push down the lake Saturday night
into Sunday. Winds/Waves during this time may become high enough
to require a Small Craft Advisory.

Monday and Tuesday look to be fairly calm, before multiple
chances for thunderstorms develop by mid week.




Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Sunday through Friday...Hentz is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.