Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 200812
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High.

A mid-level shortwave/vorticity maxima will progress from the mid
Missouri valley this morning into the upper Mississippi valley by
tonight. Rain showers are expected this morning, with lift
provided by coupled cyclonic vorticity advection and jet-level
divergence atop the low-level baroclinic zone. A rumble of
thunder is possible, given MUCAPE present via RAP analysis and
present on area forecast soundings. Look for a break in the
precipitation during the late morning and into the afternoon, as
low-level moisture wanes and the upper support departs. Modest
low-level warm and moist advection returns tonight as some weak
perturbations ripple through the mid-level flow. While forcing for
ascent is rather weak, rain showers are possible overnight, with
the greatest chances towards the Illinois border. Rain amounts
should generally be a quarter of an inch or less. With the surface
front remaining to our south, look for cool northeasterly flow
and high temperatures struggling to reach 60 west of Madison.
Areas near the Lake may have a tough time cracking the 50 degree
mark.

.LONG TERM...
Forecast Confidence is Medium.

A split flow upper level pattern will persist across the CONUS
much of the week. As a result, the flow aloft will be a bit
sluggish, with bouts of unsettled weather bookending a period of
quiet conditions.

A weak disturbance will slowly move through the region on Monday
bringing a chance of showers that will persist into Monday night.
Temperatures will be cooler than average under a mainly cloudy
sky.

A brief period of upper level ridging builds over the area on
Tuesday. Southerly winds will initiate a warming trend that looks
to persist through the remainder of the week. An upper low that
will slowly eject out of the southwest CONUS, should weaken a bit
as it approaches from the west as it encounters confluent flow.
There will be a few pieces of energy to break off from this low
and provide intermittent (nebulous) rain chances from Wednesday
onward. Overall the PoP forecast is a bit pessimistic, but timing
individual waves at this juncture is a futile exercise.

Bottom line for Tuesday onward is at/above average temperatures
(remaining cooler near the lake), and chances for rain beginning
Wednesday and continuing in an off again/on again fashion as we
head into the first part of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...
A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected
through this morning with scattered rain showers. A gradual
improvement in flight conditions to VFR is then expected through
the afternoon. Brisk NE winds will gust up to 25 knots this
morning, before decreasing this afternoon. Ceilings may begin to
lower into the MVFR range once again later tonight with scattered
showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk NE winds will gust up to 25 mph this morning before easing
somewhat this afternoon. This will allow high waves up to 5 feet
to build early this morning and persist until early Sunday
evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect during this time.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LMZ645-646.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ643-
     644.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...SPM
Monday through Saturday...Gagan



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