695
FXUS63 KMKX 172012
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marine dense fog may linger through tonight.

- Chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening.

- Warmer and more humid today through Sunday.

- Wet and a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Tonight through Saturday night:

Scattered clouds across eastern areas will dissipate after the loss
of daytime heating. High pressure will move across Lake Michigan
tonight. Some fog is possible tonight, but south winds around 5 mph
on the backside of the high may be enough to limit fog development.

Clear skies will bring another warm day on Saturday. Light south
winds will become southwest during the day, ahead of a weak surface
trough tied to low pressure in southern Canada. This will move
across southern Wisconsin during the evening bringing a small chance
for a brief shower or thunderstorm. There will be a few hundred J of
Cape, with a capped environment, but the surface convergence will be
weakening as it moves through limiting the forcing. Most areas will
be dry. High pressure will them move through later Saturday
night.

Marquardt

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Sunday through Friday:

Dry and warm conditions are expected across southern Wisconsin
through much of the day Sunday as weak upper level ridging and
surface high pressure move northeast across Wisconsin. High
temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s.

A series of upper level shortwaves will traverse Wisconsin early
next week. The first upper shortwave trough will move into the
region Sunday evening, bringing with it surface low pressure and
an associated frontal system. There is some discrepancy between
the models on the timing of this shortwave and the associated
showers and storms, but overall the shortwave and low appear to
move into northwestern Wisconsin Monday morning which would
limit the strength and coverage of storms that develop. However,
GFS/NAM soundings indicate modest CAPE developing in the
afternoon which combined with modest 0-6km wind shear may lead
to the development of stronger storms if diurnal heating is able
to effectively modify the airmass.

The next shortwave trough and surface low will propagate through
Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon and are deeper/stronger than the
preceding features on Monday. Stronger thunderstorms are more
likely to develop as these move through Wisconsin, with GFS
soundings indicating steep mid-level lapse rates, high CAPE
values, and strong 0-6km shear. The SPC currently has southern
Wisconsin in an area of 15% probability for severe weather within
25 miles of a point. As such, Tuesday will need to be monitored over
the next few days.

Showers and storms look to impact southern Wisconsin again on
Wednesday before upper level ridging and high pressure build into
the midwest for the later half of next week.

Falkinham

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Scattered clouds will diminish this evening with the loss of day
time heating. Some fog is possible tonight but south winds around 5
knots may be enough to limit development. There is dense fog over
Lake Michigan but there is uncertainty in its evolution. If it
continues into tonight and spreads onshore it could impact MKE and
maybe ENW.

South winds will become southwest and increase slightly on Saturday.
A cold front will bring a small chance for a brief thunderstorm
Saturday evening.

Marquardt

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 312 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dense fog will continue across the southern half of Lake Michigan
and from North Point Light south. It may also impact other parts of
the nearshore waters at times. There is uncertainly how long it will
continue but may remain through the night. Winds will remain light
tonight so some fog may redevelop across the other nearshore area
and the rest of the open waters. Winds and waves will be below small
craft levels through Sunday. South winds will increase Monday and
again Tuesday night.

Marquardt

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ669-LMZ671-
     LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
     LMZ876-LMZ878 until 4 AM Saturday.

&&

$$

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