Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130815
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 314 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021)

Today through Wednesday:

An almost stationary upper level low is centered over northern
MN/WI this morning. The push of drier air arrived yesterday
evening and with winds going calm in a few spots temps dropped
into the 30s quickly. A weak surface boundary was evident in obs
this morning and as this swings through expect some increase in
winds to help mix temps up a bit and keep values above the
freezing mark through morning. Increasing clouds are expected
today as more mid-level moisture spreads in. There will be enough
vort-advection aloft to support a few isolated showers this
afternoon but the best chances will be mainly north of I-94.
Expect another breezy day today with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Highs
should be warmest near Lake Michigan where temps could make it
into the mid 50s. Otherwise, most of the area will stay in the
upper 40s.

Tonight into Wednesday morning the center of the 700mb circulation
begins to shift S/SE and the better mid-level moisture will also
shift south. This should support a few spotty light showers
tonight and Wednesday morning. The -6C to -8C temps aloft combined
with lows in the low to mid 30s could support a mix of rain/snow
in any of those light showers that do develop. Temps warm back up
by mid to late morning on Wednesday that any additional showers
that develop should be liquid. The upper level low finally starts
to clear to the east Wednesday into Thursday.

Stumpf

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 314 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021)

Wednesday night through Monday:

As mentioned above the stalled upper low will finally be on the
move and shift into the eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning.
Temps aloft begin to warm and with some drier air moving in aloft
we should start to see skies clear. This will result in a warming
trend to end the week with highs back into the mid 50s. However,
with winds more out of the north the lakeside locations will stay
on the cooler side with temps more in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

This weekend the upper levels are looking messy with various
trough and upper level energy scattered across the northern US.
Models are hit and miss on whether we`ll see any light precip
chances over the weekend as they all handle the multiple
shortwaves aloft differently. There is some agreement for a light
round of rain Saturday afternoon and have kept some slight chances
but confidence in low. Highs should be close to normal over the
weekend.

Looking ahead to next week guidance is in decent agreement in
dropping a system out of western Canada and into the northern
Plains. Slight timing differences but winds ahead of this system
would briefly turn to the SW and we could see a 60 degree day on
Monday. But any warmup early next week will be brief.

Stumpf

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 314 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021)

A stalled upper level system over northern MN/WI through the TAF
period will provide increasing clouds and isolated light showers.
Drier air in the lower levels should keep cigs VFR with bases
lowering to 3,500ft and holding there for much of the day. It`s
possible with any of the showers for cigs to briefly drop to
2,500ft this morning. By this afternoon increasing westerly winds
will help to keep cigs VFR. Expect gusts upwards of 25 kts at
times this afternoon. Clouds tonight should improve to 4-5 kft.

Stumpf

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 314 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021)

Another breezy day is expected today with winds ranging from 20 to
25 kts at times. A few brief gusts above small craft are possible
this afternoon but shouldn`t last long. Winds become more
north to northwesterly on Wednesday with gust staying below 20kts.
A push of stronger winds is expected Wednesday night through
Thursday as a system exits the area to the east. Northerly gusts
up to 30 kts are possible Thursday morning through the afternoon
hours.

Stumpf

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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