Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 262124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday night/...Subtropical Storm
Alberto gradually moves north into the southeastern Gulf through the
next 24 hours before curving slightly towards the northwest
around the periphery of an upper trough digging into the central
Gulf. This is expected to take the storm towards the northern
Gulf coast, making landfall as a tropical storm late Monday in the
MS/AL/FL region. There will be a multitude of impacts from this
system, and a brief summary regarding timing and confidence can be
found beneath the LONG TERM portion of this discussion. Please
visit our website at www.weather.gov/mob for more details. /49


.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...As Alberto weakens back
into a tropical depression and moves off to the north, we return to
a more summer-like pattern with daily showers and thunderstorms
focused along outflows and mesoscale boundaries such as the sea
breeze. Stronger storms will produce heavy downpours and frequent
lightning. High temperatures also return to the upper 80s and low
90s. With weak troughing persisting aloft, we see this pattern last
through at least the end of the week. /49

The following is a breakdown of expected Alberto impacts and
confidence levels for each:

- Flash Flood Threat - Confidence: HIGH. Timing: Through Tuesday
  evening. Significant rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches remain
  unchanged through this time period, especially closer to the
  coast. 4 to 7 inches over portions of the interior. Note: Some
  areas could see localized double these amounts. The Flash Flood
  Watch has been extended northward as the threat of excessive
  rain inland has increased.

- Storm Surge - Confidence: HIGH. Timing: Through Tuesday. A Storm
  Surge Watch is in effect for all local coastal zones, where 2
  to 4 feet above ground level (or inundation) is expected. The
  timing of maximum coastal water rises looks to be mainly Sunday
  night into Monday night.

- High Surf - Confidence: HIGH. Timing: Increasing quickly Sunday
  and Sunday night, reaching its peak Monday into Tuesday. Surf
  heights greater than 10 feet expected generally east of Gulf
  Shores, AL, and 5 to 9 feet farther west. A High Surf Warning is
  in effect for all Baldwin County, AL and Florida panhandle
  county beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Mobile
  County, AL beaches.

- Rip Currents - Confidence: HIGH. A high risk of dangerous to
  potentially deadly rip currents remains in effect through the
  period.

- Wind - Confidence: HIGH. Timing: Beginning as early as Sunday
  evening and lasting through Monday. Tropical storm strength
  winds are expected near the coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is
  in effect for all coastal counties.

- Severe Storm Potential - Confidence: Low. Timing: Isolated
  tornadoes possible beginning as early as Sunday, with potential
  increasing into Memorial Day east of the cyclone track.

&&

.MARINE...Alberto will bring strong winds, high seas over the open
Gulf waters, and building waves over bays and sounds through
Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all local marine
zones. /49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  84  69  84  70  85  71  89 /  40  80  80 100 100  90  70  60
Pensacola   71  82  74  83  74  84  74  87 /  50 100 100 100 100  90  70  70
Destin      72  80  74  81  77  82  77  84 /  60 100  90 100 100  80  60  60
Evergreen   69  81  70  83  71  84  71  86 /  40 100  80 100 100  90  70  70
Waynesboro  68  82  68  82  69  82  69  86 /  40  60  50  80  90  90  60  60
Camden      69  81  70  83  72  82  72  85 /  40  90  70  80 100  90  70  70
Crestview   69  81  71  83  71  84  71  86 /  50 100  90 100 100  80  60  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ265.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ076-078-079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/mob



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