984
FXUS64 KMOB 212058
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to extend from the western Gulf of
Mexico and into our region through Wednesday afternoon. A surface
ridge of high pressure will meanwhile remain positioned along
much of the Eastern Seaboard and Western Atlantic. A light
southeasterly to southerly low level flow pattern will continue
through Wednesday, allowing for continued warm and rather humid
conditions across our forecast area. Rain chances remain almost
nil with the upper ridge remaining the dominant feature aloft over
our region. Conditions may become favorable for the development
of patchy fog after midnight through around 8 AM or so Wednesday
morning over interior portions of southeast MS, southwest/south
central AL, and perhaps into the interior western FL panhandle.
Lows tonight are forecast to range in the lower to mid 60s over
inland communities and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the
immediate coast and beaches. Another warm day is anticipated on
Wednesday with high temperatures once again ranging in the upper
80s to around 90 degrees over most locations along and north of
I-10 and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and
beaches. /21

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A continuation of warm/muggy conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming holiday weekend. Upper
level ridging will remain oriented across our forecast area
through Wednesday night before flow aloft generally flattens and
becomes more zonal Thursday and Friday. Periodic shortwave
impulses in the zonal flow aloft and associated rain/thunderstorm
chances still look to remain focused well to our north through the
latter part of the week. POPs remain below mentionable levels
through Friday, although isolated showers or a thunderstorm cannot
be entirely ruled out over the northern half of our forecast area
on Friday afternoon. Embedded shortwave impulses may tend to
advance a little further south and potentially bring a slightly
better potential for isolated convection over our northern zones
this weekend. POPs still remain low (15-20% chance at best)
Saturday and Sunday. A more potent shortwave trough may push
across our region Monday into Monday night or early Tuesday of
next week. This feature could bring a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast. Confidence in timing is low,
so we followed the NBM solution with POPs capped at 20-30% both
days.

Temperatures and humidity will gradually trend higher as we go
into the latter part of the week and into the upcoming holiday
weekend. High temperatures may range between 90-95 over much of
the interior this weekend, with lows at night only falling to
between 70-75. Afternoon heat index readings are also forecast to
trend higher in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees this weekend
into early next week. /21

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Saturday with the
RCMOS probabilities remaining LOW through at least Sunday.
Probabilities do begin to increase toward the MODERATE category
by the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A mainly light southeasterly to southerly flow pattern will
continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week.
Winds may be locally enhanced near the immediate coast each
afternoon with the development of a daily seabreeze. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  87  68  88  71  89  73  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   69  84  71  85  73  86  75  87 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Destin      71  84  73  84  74  85  76  86 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Evergreen   63  89  66  90  67  90  70  93 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10
Waynesboro  65  89  65  90  68  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Camden      64  89  66  90  68  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10  20
Crestview   63  89  66  89  66  89  70  91 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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