Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 212325

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020

00Z issuance...Mixed VFR/MVFR conditions continue across the
region. The best chance for MVFR cigs are mainly in the western
Florida panhandle and southwestern AL during the morning hours on
Thursday with VFR conditions by the afternoon. Patchy MVFR fog is
expected overnight into Thursday morning. Winds continue to be light
with a easterly to northeasterly direction. JH/88


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday/...An upper ridge extending
southwestward from the western Atlantic across the Carolinas to
central Mississippi and Alabama will migrate northward as a very
weak shortwave over the eastern gulf and Florida lifts northward
over the southeast states. A surface ridge over the southeastern
states will persists through the near term keeping light easterly to
northeasterly winds over the forecast area. The only exception will
be southeasterly winds developing Thursday afternoon across the
coastal counties due to a seabreeze moving inland. With the lack of
any significant lifting mechanism in place and for the most part
sufficient subsidence, will keep a dry forecast through the period,
although a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out late Thursday
afternoon mainly along the seabreeze. Some patchy fog will be
possible again late tonight mainly over interior areas.

Lows tonight will be rather mild and range from the mid 60s inland
to around 70 at the coast which are about 15 degrees above normal.
Highs Thursday will be in the mid 80s which are about 10 degrees
above seasonable values. A high risk of rip currents continues
through the period. /22

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A broad mid
to upper level trough slides across the northern and central Plains
Thursday night into Friday with several shortwaves rotating through
the flow aloft. Meanwhile, the ridge to our south continues to
flatten across the southern Gulf. Upper level winds remain generally
southwesterly to westerly through Saturday in this pattern. Down in
the lower levels, the area remains on the far southwestern periphery
of ridging along the East Coast through Friday. This will keep a
general easterly to southeasterly flow in place in the lower levels.
Deep layer moisture will steadily increase through Saturday across
the entire area. Forecast soundings indicate increasing PWATs
beginning overnight Thursday with 2.00 inch PWATs spreading into the
southern portion of the area by Friday afternoon. Highest rain
chances correspond to the increasing moisture on Friday afternoon
with 60% POPs across the southern half of the area and 30-40% POPs
generally along and north of the Hwy 84 corridor.

A subtle shortwave trough slides through the area on Saturday. The
forcing from this feature combined with ample moisture will lead
to another chance for showers and storms on Saturday. Bumped up
the dry POPs inherited from the blend on Saturday morning and
early afternoon due to the lingering moisture across the area.
That said, generally expecting scattered showers and storms on
Saturday with 30% POPs.

Temperatures remain quite warm for this time of year. Daytime highs
will be several degrees above normal on both Friday and Saturday
with highs topping out in the mid to low 80s area-wide. Overnight
lows will sink into the mid to low 60s inland with upper 60s to near
70 at the coast.

Rip current risk remains HIGH through Friday night before conditions
gradually improve on Saturday. 07/mb

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Ridging in the mid and
upper levels begins to build back into the Gulf waters on Sunday and
Monday as a trough digs into the Central Plains and back toward the
Desert Southwest. Predominantly zonal flow is expected in the upper
levels in this pattern through early next week. The area remains on
the southwest periphery of a surface high, which keeps surface winds
generally southerly to southeasterly. We should dry out across much
of the area in this pattern, but a few showers cannot be ruled
out each afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be
quite toasty for this time of year (thanks to the rising upper
level heights) with mid to upper 80s in the forecast each

As the mid to upper level trough amplifies through mid-week, the
physical models diverge on the potential solutions for the pattern
to our west. That said, another round of deep layer moisture sets-up
across the area with forecast soundings indicating PWATs rising to
2.00+ inches again on Tuesday ahead of a cold front. There remain
some timing and strength differences in the model solutions with
regards to the aforementioned cold front. For now, it looks like the
front may slide through the area in the Tuesday through Wednesday
timeframe. Temperatures late in the extended will hinge on the
strength and timing of the front, so leaned heavily on the blend on
days 7 and 8 of the forecast. 07/mb

MARINE...Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are
possible over the open Gulf waters through Thursday night into
Friday well offshore, due to a moderate to occasionally strong
easterly flow. /22


AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ202-204-206.



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