Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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846
FXUS64 KMOB 070524
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1124 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Persistent light rainshowers with a light mist mixed in are
bringing low end MVFR to local IFR conditions to most of the
forecast area. These showers remain light, with little drop in
conditions with the showers expected overnight. A very moist
airmass over the forecast area will allow for CIGs to remain low
overnight. Local drops in VISBYs due to fog are possible
overnight. Areas closer to the cost will see an uptick in
rainshower coverage Thursday morning, with CIGs rising to general
mid MVFR or above. Local drops to low end MVFR/IFR are possible
closer to the coast in the heavier showers. /16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Scattered rainshowers with light mist mixed in is bringing MVFR to
IFR conditions to areas along and south of I-65. Rain coverage will
decrease in coverage through the evening, but a very moist airmass
over the forecast area will allow for mainly CIGs to drop
overnight to MVFR/IFR juncture, along with local drops in VISBYs
due to fog overnight. Areas closer to the cost will see an uptick
in rainshower coverage Thursday morning, with CIGs rising to
general mid MVFR or above. Local drops to low end MVFR/IFR are
possible closer to the coast in the heavier showers. /16

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

The area remains in a southwesterly flow aloft between an upper
trough over the western states and a ridge centered off the
southeast coast. A weak shortwave moving through the upper flow
along with increasing deep layer moisture is causing the scattered
to numerous showers today across portions of the area. Rain
chances decrease this evening and overnight as the shortwave
departs the area. A lower coverage of rain expected on Thursday,
however isolated to locally scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm can be expected.

Temperatures remain well above normal with highs on Thursday in the
low to mid 80s. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s
along the coast. /13

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Sunday as our
region remains located in between an upper-level low over the
central US and an upper ridge over the western Atlantic and
Florida Peninsula. The upper low will track northeast on Sunday
towards the Great Lakes region and zonal flow aloft should become
prominent for the remainder of the period. Looking to our south,
Hurricane Rafael is expected to cross over western Cuba this
evening and emerge into the southeastern Gulf later tonight. With
the ridge to its north, it is expected to push westward into the
central Gulf by the Friday/Saturday timeframe. By this point,
Rafael will have to contend with an extremely hostile environment,
with very strong vertical wind shear (50+ knots), cooler SSTs,
and a dry mid to upper-level atmosphere. The shear will help to
decouple the mid/upper level circulation from the low level
circulation and eject it to the northeast, becoming embedded
within the influence of the upper low lifting towards the Great
Lakes region. As far as the low level circulation, latest guidance
suggests that whatever is left of Rafael should meander around
the west central Gulf until it interacts with an approaching
frontal boundary by Monday. Questions still remain on exactly what
will happen to it by this point (i.e. become absorbed by the
front or get shoved southwestward towards the Bay of Campeche),
but as of right now, the chances of it reaching the northern Gulf
Coast are much lower than the past few days. For our local region,
with plenty of moisture still in place and weak diffluence aloft
due to the upper low to our west, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected from Friday through Sunday. The
aforementioned frontal boundary looks to pass overhead Sunday into
Monday and dry conditions return for Tuesday in its wake.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms return to the forecast
for late Wednesday as a longwave trough, with an associated cold
front at the surface, begins to approach the local region from the
west.

Temperatures continue to remain well above average for this time of
year. Highs will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows through
Sunday night will only dip into the mid 60s inland and low 70s along
the coast. Lows do look to decrease a bit as we get to Monday and
Tuesday nights, likely due to some drier air moving in behind the
frontal boundary. Lows look to drop into the mid 50s inland to mid
60s along the coast. A High Risk of rip currents will continue
through the week and into the weekend. We will also have to monitor
the potential for High Surf Advisory conditions through Saturday
night for surf heights around 5 to 7 feet. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

A light to moderate mainly easterly flow is expected today,
becoming moderate to occasionally strong Thursday through Friday.
Seas will also begin to increase Thursday into Friday, gradually
diminishing into the weekend. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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