Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KMOB 232108
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
408 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...An upper trof amplifies over the
central states through the period while an upper ridge extends
mainly from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the Bahamas.  This pattern
continues to maintain a deep layer southwesterly to southerly flow
over the forecast area through Tuesday.  A shortwave trof embedded
within this pattern currently extends from the north central Gulf
into eastern Tennessee where the remnants of a subtropical system
exists, which includes a well defined surface low over northeast
Alabama/northwest Georgia.  The shortwave trof and remnant
system/surface low weaken while lifting off to the northeast away
from the area through tonight, while a series of lesser shortwaves
continue across the area through Tuesday. A modest stalled frontal
boundary extending from southeast Louisiana to the surface low over
northeast Alabama/northwest Georgia is expected to slowly drift
northward overnight in response to another surface low developing
over Texas with the amplifying upper trof.  Deep layer moisture
remains abundant through much of the period with just a modest
decreasing trend noted Tuesday afternoon as precipitable water
values of 1.7-1.9 inches decrease a bit to 1.5-1.7 inches. By
Tuesday, low to mid level lapse rates are more favorable compared to
this afternoon and should yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2500
J/kg with the higher values near the coast. Pops taper off tonight
to slight chance to chance pops then likely pops follow for much of
the area on Tuesday. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland
to the lower 70s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be mostly in
the mid 80s. A high risk of rip currents continues through the
period. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...An upper low
that has moved east of the southern Rockies begins to move against
an upper ridge stretching north over the East Coast. Guidance varies
on the ridge`s effect on the low, with some deflecting the upper low
northeast, whilst others keep the upper low more on an eastward
track. Fortunately for the forecast area, the handling of several
shortwaves swinging around the upper low are consistent in their
path for the Short Term, The first round of energy sweeps over the
forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday, with two passing each
other in the Wednesday night into Thursday night time frame. With a
moist airmass (with precipitable h20 values bouncing around 1.5")
over the forecast area and nearby as a surface ridge stretching west
over the northern Gulf coast remains in place, periods of showers
and thunderstorms are expected through mid week. As the final round
of energy passes Thursday, a cold front stretching south from a
northeast moving surface low that has developed over the Central
Plains moves across the forecast area Thursday night into Friday.
Precipitable h20 values rise to around 2" plus. With these rounds of
convection moving north across the forecast area, training storms
are possible, especially with the last round of passing energy. With
Thursday`s convection being efficient rainers due to the soupy
airmass, water issues may be a problem. The placement and amounts of
the highest rainfall amounts have varied each day, so have been hard
to pin down. A flood watch may be needed mid week, but timing and
placement are hard to pin down at this time.

With all the rain, the temperature range is expected to be tighter
than normal. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s are
expected Wednesday and Thursday. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to
low 70s are expected Tuesday and Wednesday night. With the cold
front bringing a colder airmass over the forecast area, low
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected.
/16

&&

.EXTENDED TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Through the Extended, the
varying paths/speeds of the upper system create a challenge first
with temperatures, then the return of rain to the forecast area.
The models taking a slower/more southerly path of the upper low as
it moves east brings Gulf moisture inland sooner, with mainly low
temperatures warming faster and rain returning by the beginning
of the coming week. The quicker/more northerly path results in
cooler overnight temperatures and a dry forecast due to drier air
remaining over the forecast area longer. With guidance pretty much
evenly split with the solutions, even the ensemble means, have
went with a blended approach. High temperatures rise back into the
upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday, low 90s on Monday. Low
temperatures rise back into the mid 60s to low 70s by Sunday
night.
/16

&&

.MARINE...A light to moderate southerly flow becomes southeasterly
tonight then becomes moderate to occasionally strong by Wednesday.
Small craft should exercise caution mainly over the open Gulf waters
beginning late Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday morning.
A southwesterly flow develops on Thursday as a cold front approaches
from the west, then switches to a northerly direction Thursday night
as the front moves through the area. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  85  73  82  70  81  62  84 /  60  50  30  90  80  90  30  10
Pensacola   74  85  74  81  72  82  69  84 /  50  50  20  70  70  90  50  10
Destin      74  84  74  82  73  81  72  83 /  40  40  20  60  50  90  60  10
Evergreen   66  84  69  84  67  82  63  83 /  40  60  10  70  60  90  40  10
Waynesboro  66  84  70  81  66  79  58  83 /  40  70  20  90  80  70  20   0
Camden      66  83  69  83  67  80  61  81 /  40  70  10  70  60  90  30   0
Crestview   69  85  69  85  67  83  64  84 /  40  50  10  60  50  90  50  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.