518
FXUS64 KMOB 160923
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
423 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Today through Monday night...

Convection has cleared the eastern portion of our forecast area
with a cold front following shortly behind the convection. Today
through Monday night, an upper trof progresses across the eastern
states and amplifies in the process before moving off into the
western Atlantic. A reinforcing cold front moves through the
forecast area later today with a surface ridge building east and
across the area through Monday night. Meanwhile, cooler and much
drier air flows into the area and dry conditions are expected
over the area today through Monday night. Highs today will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s west of I-65 and in the lower to mid
70s east of I-65. Lows tonight and Monday night range from the
upper 30s/around 40 inland to the mid 40s at the coast. Highs on
Monday will be 65-70 degrees. A High Risk of rip currents is in
effect through Monday afternoon, then a moderate risk is in effect
for Monday night, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect until 3
pm this afternoon. /29


Tuesday through Saturday...

High pressure moves east across the local area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, with another front then passing through the area late
Wednesday and Wednesday night. This frontal passage will bring
another chance for showers (and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder).
There will be some favorable 0-6km bulk shear magnitudes in place
during the frontal passage, but instability looks to be rather low
as we don`t get a good return flow setup in advance of the front.
This results in a non-zero chance of thunder, but only ~ 10% or
less probabilities, so will continue to leave thunder out of the
zones (but do have some thunder out over the marine waters to
south). We quickly dry out and cool down once again behind the
mid-week frontal passage as high pressure builds in behind the
front Thursday and Friday. Some return moisture into the region on
Saturday as the surface high drifts off to our east, and a
possible return of a low PoP with a few showers as well.

Highs temps will gradually moderate with each day on Tuesday and
Wednesday, when high temps topping out in the mid to upper 70s
over inland areas both days, low to mid 70s coastal areas. Daytime
highs will be cooler again on Thursday in the wake of the front
(only in the low to mid 60s) but gradually rebound Friday to upper
60s and lower 70s and then into the mid and upper 70s inland and
lower 70s coastal on Saturday. Nighttime lows will be cool.
Tuesday and Wednesday night lows in the 40s and 50s. The coldest
night of the week will be Thursday night as the surface high will
be centered directly over our area. Lows that night will be in the
mid to upper 30s for most inland areas and low to mid 40s near the
coast (maybe around 50 at the beaches and barrier islands).Warmup
begins again on Friday night with lows again in the 40s and 50s,
and then by Saturday night lows will mainly be in the 50s. DS/12

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Showers and storms, potentially severe, over portions of south
central Alabama and the western Florida panhandle will move east
out of the area within 2 hours of issuance time. MVFR/IFR
conditions with and near the convection will improve to VFR in the
wake of the convection, although some patchy dense fog will be
possible overnight. Southerly winds diminish to 5 to 10 knots,
then become westerly 10-20 knots on Sunday. /29

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Westerly winds become moderate to strong today then switch to the
northwest tonight. The offshore flow subsides on Monday, then a
light to moderate southeasterly flow develops on Tuesday. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through early
Monday morning by which time winds and seas will have subsided
sufficiently. A strong northwesterly flow develops Wednesday night
as a cold front moves through, then the offshore flow gradually
diminishes Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Another Small
Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from Wednesday night
through Thursday morning. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  42  69  44  73  55  77  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  30
Pensacola   73  46  67  46  69  58  74  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  30
Destin      73  48  68  49  70  58  73  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  40
Evergreen   74  39  68  38  77  47  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  60
Waynesboro  67  39  68  40  77  51  79  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  30
Camden      70  39  65  39  76  49  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  50
Crestview   77  41  69  37  76  47  77  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ634>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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