Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
359 FXUS64 KLIX 031121 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A drier airmass indicated by PW of 1.7 to 1.9 inches will be the direct result of an upper level ridge becoming more centered over the central Gulf coast. As sinking air aloft warms and dries, it will allow for the development of a mid-level temperature inversion around the 700mb or 10k feet level. This capping inversion will effectively limit updraft development, and this will lead to less overall shower and thunderstorm activity across most of the forecast area each day. At most, an isolated shower or weak thunderstorm could try to fire up along the seabreeze boundary where low level convergence is maximized. With this in mind, there are 20 to 30 percent PoP values in place for coastal Louisiana both Thursday and Friday afternoon. Less cloud cover and the drier air mixing down to the surface each day will allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. However, the drier air and lower humidity values will keep extreme heat at bay with heat index values of 100 to 105 expected on Thursday and Friday. These values are not uncommon for early July. [PG/DSS] && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Going further into the holiday weekend, our region will be in a somewhat interesting northeasterly flow aloft as a ridge sets up over the mid-south region. A mid/upper level weakness will develop over the Gulf waters and perhaps close off into an upper level low just south of our region by Saturday afternoon. Will continue to advertise lower POPs on Saturday, but this will be the end of the hot/dry-ish spell across the region. Going into the start of next week the ridge aloft shifts and weakens a bit allowing for the weakness aloft to meander over the Gulf. With this feature in relative close proximity an enhancement to daily diurnally driven convection will take place. Went on the higher end of CLIMO POPs through most of the medium range beyond Saturday. With convective coverage increasing and some modestly lower heights, temperatures will be a degree or two cooler early next week. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Apart from some brief VIS reductions at MCB late tonight, mostly VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Cannot rule out isolated convection this afternoon, but coverage will be lower when compared to the last few days. Where convection does occur brief VIS/CIG reductions are possible with gusty and variable winds. Otherwise, surface winds appear to be rather light and variable through the period. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Typical summertime conditions associated with high pressure over the area. Winds will be from the north around 10 kt with 1 to 2 ft seas through Saturday and switching to southerly, less than 10 kt, with resultant 1 ft seas. Convection through the early weekend is less likely, but increases later into the weekend and into the new week. Winds in the vicinity of the convection will be stronger and variable and can cause localized heavier seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 72 92 71 / 30 10 20 0 BTR 94 75 92 74 / 40 20 30 10 ASD 94 73 94 72 / 30 10 20 10 MSY 94 80 93 79 / 40 10 30 10 GPT 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 PQL 94 71 94 72 / 10 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...DS