Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
261 FXUS64 KLIX 090442 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 - Fog is expected to develop early this morning and will likely become dense in some areas. Motorists and mariners should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility through the morning. - Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through midweek with potential for daily record highs to be broken in some areas Tuesday and/or Wednesday. - A cold front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. While confidence in the specifics is currently low, a few storms could become severe mainly across northwestern portions of the area. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates as this threat evolves. - In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air will move into the area for a few days. Despite the significant cool down, temperatures will remain near to warmer than normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 The main concern early today will be areas of dense fog. With moisture pooling ahead of the old boundary and recent rainfall, there is a strong signal for dense fog during the Monday morning commute. The fog will mix out late morning or early afternoon. The front and a weak H5 shortwave look to generate some isolated shower or storm activity over the northern tier where some weak instability will be around. Otherwise, the story will be similar to last week with above average temperatures (upper 70s or lower 80s) this afternoon thanks to a weak H5 ridge over the western Gulf. Tuesday, the ridge nudges northward setting up a weak southwest flow over the region. Higher heights and thicknesses will lead to continued warm conditions. As the surface front moves a bit further north conditions look dry for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Again, there is another signal for fog Tuesday morning, but a bit weaker than Monday AM at this juncture. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 The overall synoptic pattern going into the long term is a more active southwest flow on the western periphery of the ridge spreading east over the Gulf. Upstream, an upper level trough will be moving eastward toward our region with another cold front moving eastward toward our region later in the day and overnight Wednesday. Globals show this feature being more on the progressive side, so widespread hydro concerns are not anticipated this round. However, globals do try to develop a surface low in the lower MS River Valley. With a bit more wind shear (low level directional shear noted with the proximity of the developing surface low to our north) with this feature, the severe potential is certainly not zero. There are still a few questions regarding timing and instability, which we`ll have a few more days to focus on, however, at this point it looks like a QLCS will be moving through the region Wednesday evening and very early Thursday morning. Damaging winds would be the primary threat with any strong convection, but cannot rule out a tornado or two with shear values increasing. Mesovort potential will also be there with any southwest to northeast surging bows, especially north of I10/12. This system moves out early Thursday allowing for strong CAA to take shape over the CWFA. With a bit more northern influence in terms of airmass when compared to this past front, temperatures will fall to more average ranges going into late week with some locations on the northshore dropping into the 40s overnight Thursday Night. This cool down is brief as another warming trend going into the upcoming weekend develops with a subtle H5 ridge filling in behind the departing trough. This will also lead to a dry late week and weekend ahead. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 VFR conditions for most terminals over the next couple of hours before VIS/CIG reductions begin. Areas of dense fog will be likely across the terminals with IFR or lower conditions taking shape in just a few hours. These conditions will improve later this afternoon with all local terminals seeing VFR from then through the end of the cycle. Southerly winds will remain light through the period. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026 Onshore flow will persist through midweek, strengthening to around 15 knots Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it moves through the coastal waters Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. In the wake of the front, winds will turn offshore and strengthen with potential for gale conditions Wednesday night through at least Thursday morning before winds gradually begin to ease Thursday afternoon. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF