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000
FXUS64 KLIX 191033
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
533 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

.SHORT TERM...

Delayed AFD issuance due to ongoing weather.

Tropical Storm Claudette will continue to move northeast today and
gradually weaken. Expect many of the headlines to be lowered or
cancelled in the next 12 hours. Certainly expect to be able to
drop the Tornado Watch and probably Flash Flood Watch by mid
morning over coastal Mississippi. Probably will also be able to
drop significant portion of coastal flood products as well.

Airmass will remain moist and unstable through at least the
daytime hours today, and could still see isolated to scattered
showers/and storms to develop. Heavy rain is certainly possible,
but organized heavy rain isn`t anticipated.

As we get away from Claudette`s circulation, onshore flow will
return, and moisture levels will still be high enough for diurnal
thunderstorm development Sunday and Monday afternoons. Troughing
over the Great Lakes will push a front toward the area early in
the week, but remain north of the CWA.

Blended guidance favors the ECMWF (warmer solution) on high
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...

Upper ridging to the west of the area never really makes enough
inroads to dry us out completely, but by the end of the week,
areal coverage of diurnal convection may diminish to 20-30%.
Temperatures during the medium and long range are likely to be
within a few degrees of seasonal norms, and have accepted blended
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...

Most terminals currently with MVFR to IFR ceilings, and brief IFR
visibilities as rain bands move across the terminals. Wind impacts
should be diminishing over the next few hours, but there will be
potential for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Once we get
beyond sunset tonight, expect to see improvement to VFR for at
least a few hours. There will be a threat of low ceilings
developing toward sunrise, especially in areas that have received
a lot of rain over the last 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...

When Tropical Storm Warnings eventually get lowered later today,
expect they will get replaced with Small Craft Advisories and/or
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for much of the waters.
Don`t really expect conditions to totally relax until about
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  72  89  74 /  70  20  50  20
BTR  88  75  89  76 /  50  20  60  20
ASD  87  75  88  76 /  70  40  70  30
MSY  88  77  89  78 /  50  30  70  30
GPT  86  75  87  78 /  70  60  60  40
PQL  84  74  87  75 /  90  70  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ049-050-056>061-063>070-072-
     075>078.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ064-
     066>070-076-078.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ049-
     050-058-060-061-072-075-077.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ036-037-039-
     046>048-071.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ080>082.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ080>082.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ077-080>082.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ069>071-077.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$