Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KMOB 202357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.


Wind advisory was allowed to expire at 7pm.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the period. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Main concern for the next 24
hours continues to be gusty winds from the west northwest
continuing through this afternoon, then gradually diminishing
through Wed afternoon, along with wrap around moisture from the
north mostly in the form clouds generated from the deep low well
to the northeast. As a result we will continue with the wind
advisory through 7 pm for now and slowly decrease the cloud cover
over northern sections of the forecast area through tonight. With
this pattern colder/drier air will continue to surge south and
east over the north central gulf states through Wed as main upper
trof and deepening surface low continue to depart to the east
leading to a broad surface ridge of high pressure to continue
building south and east across the northern gulf states tonight
through Wed afternoon. With a light to moderate northerly flow
still expected near the surface tonight through Wed afternoon
conditions will be on the cool side in the near term. Tonights
lows will run about 6 to 8 degrees below seasonal norms, ranging
from the lower 40s for most inland areas generally along and north
of the I- 10 corridor and the middle 40s further to south
stretching to the immediate coast. Highs Wed will range from the
middle 60s for most inland areas and the upper 60s near the
immediate coast, which continues to be about 3 to 6 degrees below
seasonal norms. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A highly
amplified upper-level pattern sets up over the CONUS, with deep
ridging and troughing to our west and east, respectively. As a
result, dry deep-layer northwest flow persists over the local
area through Thursday, resulting in clear skies and cool
temperatures. The ridging to our west flattens somewhat as it
moves east over our area Friday, with upper-level winds becoming
more westerly as a result. At the surface, high pressure pushing
to our east Thursday night veers winds back to southerly on
Friday. A warming trend then begins as onshore flow pumps Gulf
warmth and moisture back into the area.

Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 60s Thursday and low to mid
70s Friday. Wednesday night will be chilly, with temps in the mid
to upper 30s inland and around 40 near the coast. Could see some
patchy frost inland early Thursday morning. Lows then gradually
become more mild through the week as we lose the north winds, with
temps dipping into the low to mid 40s Thursday night and upper
40s to low 50s Friday night.


LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...An upper-level trough
begins to deepen over the western CONUS to start the long term,
with a southern stream jet streak passing over the southern
Rockies Sunday. Cyclogenesis occurs beneath this feature in the
lee of the southern Rockies Sunday into Monday, with the resulting
surface low tracking northeast across the central Plains Tuesday.
As this low pushes northeast, it drags a cold front southeast
towards the lower Mississippi River Valley, where it ultimately
stalls around midweek. Still some uncertainty in model guidance
regarding where the front stalls, with the Euro a bit farther
north and west than the GFS. The location of this front will
determine where an axis of potentially heavy rainfall sets up, so
it warrants monitoring over upcoming days. In any case, will see
at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms across our area
next week as strong onshore flow moistens and destabilizes the
warm sector. /49

MARINE...A strong west to northwest wind flow will continue
through early Wed then gradually diminish through Thu afternoon.
For tonight still expect frequent gusts to gale force mostly over
the open gulf waters out to 60 nm through about 5 am Wed lowering
to Small Craft Advisory levels through Wed afternoon. For the
inshore waters expect gusty northerly winds or Small Craft levels
through tonight lowering to below Small Craft levels during the
day on Wed. A light to moderate southerly flow will develop by Fri
as a surface ridge of high pressure shifts east of the region. 32/ee


AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ202-204-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-

     Gale Warning until 5 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.