Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 221743 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1243 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

The current forecast for today looks good overall. Based on hi-res
models, may need to delay pcpn until after 1Z. A warm front should
begin lifting northward over the area by then with showers and
thunderstorms possible. With a slow storm motion, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some storms tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Fog has continued to expand north-northwest through the early
morning hours as visibility comes down also. Satellite and web cams
indicate fog has spread across much of the Glacial Lakes region and
into portions of west central MN. Recently issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for much of the eastern CWA, and will continue to monitor
for possible expansion. Fog will dissipate after sunrise.

Otherwise, looking at warm conditions today with highs in the 80s.
Winds will be from the southeast as dewpoints creep close to 60
degrees, or even hitting it in some locations. Although, it appears
higher dewpoints will wait for tomorrow.

Focus will turn to thunderstorm chances this evening as a warm front
moves northward to near the SD/NE border by 00Z. Low-level jet
strengthens overnight as well, with convergence along the jet
spreading northward through the nighttime hours. Models are
indicating convection firing along the nose of the low-level jet,
although CAM solutions vary in overall placement and areal coverage
of convection. Will keep highest chances further south where best
low-level jet convergence will reside. Enough elevated instability
and shear exist to perhaps see some hail-producing storms during the
overnight hours. Would not be surprised to see locally heavy
rainfall as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

An upper ridge will begin to transition east on Wednesday as an
upper trough approaches. Persistent weak sfc low pressure and
shortwave activity ejecting out ahead of the upper trough will keep
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday night.

Conditions are expected to dry out but remain very warm next weekend
as another upper ridge builds in on Saturday and high pressure
dominates at the sfc. High temps will max out in the 90s, about 15
to 20 degrees above climo norms. The dry conditions will be short-
lived. Another lee side low develops on Monday that will help set
off more showers and thunderstorms across central SD late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through
the valid TAF period. A warm front lifting northward over the
region tonight will bring a change of showers and thunderstorms.
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible with these storms. Timing of
thunderstorms is best between 3Z and 9Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...SD


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