Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222326 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A southerly breeze has brought warm temperatures into the area today
with current temperatures in the 50s and 60s. A surface cold front
draped across northwest SD and into north central ND should not have
an impact on this CWA tonight. An upper level trough and surface low
pressure system will progress toward the region on Monday with winds
becoming southeasterly. This system is slow enough to allow high
temperatures to warm into the 60s and low 70s over much of the CWA.
Based on CAMS, light rain may reach the north central SD during the
late afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The long wave pattern looks to be somewhat complicated during the
long term, but that can be expected during NH Spring. The main
stable feature in the mid level flow pattern appears to be a ridge
over the intermountain region. This allows for several pieces of
energy to move southeast across the region. The first being the
energy currently over the Pacific NW. That system appears as if it
will remained disconnected from the polar jet across southern
Canada. This is now agreed upon by most long term models. The ECMWF
has even come around to the GFS idea of better chances for
measurable pcpn into eastern South Dakota. High sct/likely Pops look
appropriate, especially over the Missouri River valley Monday night
and Tuesday. Another northern stream trof rotates through the
Northern Plains on Wednesday night and early Thursday. Models are
relatively dry with this system, and after looking at time heights
and soundings, will maintain mostly dry forecast said time period.
As for temperatures, didn`t deviate too far from model blend early
in the period. However, toward late in the week and weekend, trended
them warmer. In house model blend is too much affected by recent
cold pattern. Most guidance that isn`t influenced by bias correction
shows warmer temps for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the daytime hours on Monday.




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