Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 282337
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
737 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region tonight through Saturday
with dry yet breezy conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 7:35 PM EDT...Cold front is currently tracking
through our region, with drier air beginning to filter in behind
the front. Areas of rain are expected to continue streaming
northwards along the cold front as it tracks off to our east
into New England tonight. Best chance for some showers through
the first half of the night is across western New England, with
most of the region remaining dry.

A wave of low pressure develops along the cold front well
southeast of New England and deepens overnight tonight beneath
the right entrance region of the upper jet as an upper shortwave
becomes negatively tilted rounding the base of the longwave
trough. This will result in a strengthening pressure gradient
and winds picking up late tonight, which will further help to
advect cooler and drier air into the region. Ahead of the cold
front, some patchy fog can`t be ruled out through the next few
hours, but fog should dissipate by midnight with increasing
winds and dry advection. Other than dropping dew points a few
degrees through the next several hours, mostly just cosmetic
updated to the previous forecast, which remains on track...

.Previous...Rain exits western New England this evening. Storm
off New England and eastern Canada rapidly strengthens and the
pressure gradient over our region tightens, supporting gusty
winds developing later this evening and continuing through the
night. Clouds gradually exit through the night but could linger
most of the night from the Hudson Valley through western New
England. Lows in the 30s with mid to upper 20s higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold advection along with gusty northwest winds off the great
lakes will allow for some periods of clouds and sun on Friday.
Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher
terrain. Wind gusts could be 35 mph to 45 mph in some areas
during the afternoon and evening.

Still gusty Friday night and much of Saturday but with the
coldest air lifts north as upper height rise, a bit more
sunshine and better mixing. Highs in the 50s with 40s higher
terrain.

Weak northern stream upper impulse tracks out of Canada and the
Great Lakes Saturday night with limited moisture. Just
some isolated to scattered showers Saturday night, with mixed
rain and snow showers in higher terrain. The system exits Sunday
with increasing sunshine and breezy winds at times. It will be a
little cooler after a weak cold front exits, with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s with lower 40s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period starts out with surface high pressure in place over the
region Sun night, which will result in dry and seasonably cool
conditions. Then a complex storm system will start to approach from
the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions on Mon with increasing clouds.
Most of the day should be dry, although there is a small chance of
some light precip for areas south/west of Albany. The bulk of the
precip looks to arrive late Mon night into Tue, as the primary
cyclone starts to track into the lower Great Lakes. High probs for
measurable precip during this time, so will mention
likely/categorical PoPs. With the initial phase of the storm, rain
looks to be the main precip type except across the highest
elevations where a rain/snow mix is possible.

Forecast confidence lowers by Tue night into Wed, as guidance
indicating a large upper closed low emerges from the upper Great
Lakes into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The surface
pattern becomes quite chaotic in the guidance Wed into Thu, as the
primary cyclone stalls near Lake Erie or Ontario and a possible
secondary(coastal) cyclone develops late Wed into Wed night.
Significant guidance spread exists with the evolution of the coastal
storm. There is potential for significant QPF, although it is far
too early for any specifics in terms of timing, amounts and precip
types. At this time, higher elevations east/west of the Hudson
Valley would have the greatest probs for rain/snow mix changing to
snow as the upper low moves overhead late Wed. Lower elevations are
expected to primarily have rain, although there could be periods of
rain/snow mix depending on the eventual cyclone track and cold air
available. Additional wrap-around/upslope precip may linger into Thu
as the storm consolidates over New England and the flow shifts to
the NW with gusty winds developing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Flying conditions range from VFR at
ALB/POU to IFR at GFL/PSF as of 7:35 PM EDT. BKN to OVC mid-
level clouds expected through the next few hours, but the mid-
level clouds and moisture should be scoured out as winds pick up
and drier air moves into the region tonight behind a cold front.
GFL could have a couple more hours of IFR with some patchy fog
through the next couple hours before winds pick up, but
expecting mainly VFR conditions tonight at ALB and from
midnight onwards at GFL. At POU and especially PSF, BKN to OVC
skies may linger a few hours longer (until around or shortly
after midnight), and a couple showers can`t be ruled out, but
POU should see mainly VFR conditions and PSF should see a trend
back to MVFR and eventually VFR after midnight as low clouds
break up. Once low clouds scatter out, VFR conditions should
prevail at all TAF sites through the second half of tonight
through the day tomorrow with just FEW to SCT mid-level clouds.

Winds will be light and variable through the next few hours,
becoming northwesterly at 5-10 kt by midnight through 12-15z
tomorrow. By mid-morning, northwesterly winds increase to
around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds become
west/northwesterly tomorrow afternoon at 10-15 kt with gusts of
25 to 30 kt at GFL/POU and around 15 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt
at ALB/PSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Main


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