836
FXUS61 KALY 101741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
141 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
evening hours before diminishing overnight.  Any thunderstorm will
be capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds.  It will
remain warm and humid for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with
some additional thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening,
with the greatest coverage on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today into
  early tonight from the Capital region, northern Catskills and
  northern Berkshires northward with the primary risks being
  damaging wind gusts. In addition, thunderstorms may contain
  heavy rainfall which may produce poor drainage or isolated
  flash flooding.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday
  for eastern NY and western New England.

Discussion:

As of 237 AM EDT...A wave of low pressure moving along the
frontal boundary south/southwest of the region is bringing
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms mainly south/southeast
of the Capital Region this morning. A few showers may reach
southern VT and the Capital Region prior to sunrise, but a
general clearing is expected after 12Z-15Z/Thu based on the
latest CAMs such as the 3-km HRRR and NAMnest.

Attention shifts to the warm front lifting northward across
the region and an upper level disturbance and attendant
prefrontal sfc trough. The dewpoints will be in the 60s to lower
70s with the 0-6 km bulk shear based on the 00Z HREFS in the
25-30 KT range. The instability is variable on the CAMs, but
the latest HREFs indicates mean SBCAPEs of 750-1500 J/kg with
the highest values along and west of the Hudson River Valley.
Mid level lapse rates are rather weak at 6C/km or lower. Some of
the CAMs have MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg. Another possible
issue limiting widespread strong to severe convection is the
cloud cover may be partly to mostly cloudy inhibiting the
amount of instability. All said, PWATS will be above normal
mainly in the 1.25-1.75" range. Some precip loading in any
scattered convection may yield some isolated severe storms. We
did include gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the forecast zones
and collaborated with the neighboring offices. Some locally
heavy rainfall with hourly pcpn rates 1-2"/hr may occur with
some of the thunderstorms, so the Marginal Risk continues with
WPC`s Day 1, and SPC continues the Day 1 Marginal Risk, except
the mid Hudson Valley, southeast Catskills, and NW CT were
removed. The CAMs show mainly isolated to mainly some scattered
coverage of showers and storms. Max temps will be near to
slightly above normal today with lower to mid 80s in the
valleys, and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns.

Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms end early tonight
with the skies becoming mostly clear/partly cloudy. In the muggy
air mass, lows will be in mid to upper 60s in the lower
elevations with upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain. We
did include patchy fog and it may be locally dense where it
rain and clear out.

Friday, the NBM was fairly dry and we collaborated some POP/WX
changes based on the CAMs and short range guidance, since a
weak cold front/wind shift boundary needed to move through with
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. The latest
SPC Day 2 Outlook has the entire area in a Marginal Risk. The
latest ARW- WRF has the best convective coverage from the
Capital Region/southern VT south and east. We did not include
enhanced wording yet, but 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25-30 KT
support some multicells with modest instability around 500-1500
J/kg. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Max
temps may be a shade warmer than today with mid and upper 80s
in the valleys and mid 70s to lower 80s over the terrain. The
sfc trough moves through with a slight wind shift, but no clean
break in the humidity. The showers/t-storms will diminish early.
Lows will be similar to the previous night with mid/upper 60s
below 1000 ft in elevations and upper 50s to lower 60s above
1000 ft in elevation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Advisories may be needed for some of the valley areas
  Sunday and Wednesday for dangerous heat indices in the mid and
  upper 90s.


A typical summer pattern will continue into mid July, as the
challenge will be to find some "dry periods" in the humid,
persistent air mass. Saturday, the diffuse warm front begins to
push north of the region again. The day does not look like a
washout, but afternoon isolated-scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible once again south of the southern
Adirondacks and Lake George. Upper 80s to lower 90s will be
possible in the valleys for highs and upper 70s to mid 80s over
the higher terrain. A muggy air mass persists Sat night with
lows in the 60s to around 70F. By the second half of the
weekend, some Heat Advisories may be necessary with the
combination of air temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s with sfc
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...heat indices will be
in the mid and upper 90s in the valley areas. The Hudson and
Mohawk Valleys will be the most vulnerable for these "dangerous"
heat indices. A prefrontal sfc trough may focus some isolated
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms mainly from the Hudson
River Valley west. Above normal PWATs in the latest NAEFS
support some locally heavy rainfall.

By Monday, the cold front makes a run at the forecast area for
the NBM to yield high chance and low likely PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of the medium range guidance is in
disagreement, but we hung with the NBM based on collab with
neighboring offices. The timing of the front supports slightly
cooler temps...closer to seasonal normals. The normal high for
ALB this time of year is 84F. Depending on the frontal
timing...the showers and thunderstorms end Mon night, with high
pressure ridging in from the Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley for
Tue with a slight lowering of the dewpoints and humidity, those
highs will run a little above normal. The heat and humidity
builds back in for the mid week with high pressure south and
east of the region with another warm front from the next system
to the west approaching. Slight chance probs were kept in the
grids. Temps will finish the long term above normal. Some Heat
Advisories may needed in parts of the Hudson Valley by the
middle of next week with mid 90s apparent temps/heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...VFR conditions continue at all the
terminals this afternoon with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms already developing over the Adirondacks as an
upper level disturbances tracks through southern Canada. Storms
will continue developing and slowly spreading eastward through
the afternoon but given the widely scattered nature of storms,
we limited the PROB30 mention of storms to GFL which is closest
to the upper level low/cold pool. ALB/PSF/POU could experience a
storm this afternoon but given the brief/limited duration and
lower confidence of a storm hitting any one terminal, we removed
thunderstorm mention from the TAF and will add amendments as
needed should storms near a site. Most convection diminishes by
00 UTC tonight but a few lingering showers are possible through
Midnight as the cold front pushes through. Again, limited shower
mention to GFL where there is a bit more confidence.

Shortly after Midnight, clouds should clear and given the recent
rainfall, elevated humidity, and southeast flow, low stratus
and/or fog looks to develop fairly quickly. Trended all sites to
MVFR or IFR flying conditions after Midnight for either fog
(highest chance where rain falls) or low stratus. Low stratus
cigs gradually improve by 12-15 UTC but a return to VFR cigs
will likely be delayed until 14-17 UTC. Otherwise, expecting light
and variable winds through the TAF period. Should any storm
become strong/severe, brief stronger wind gusts are possible
(highest chance at GFL).

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Speciale