274
FXUS61 KALY 010526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
126 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish tonight
as a low pressure system and frontal boundary moving across the
region.  Behind this system, mainly dry and seasonable weather is
expected for Wednesday and Thursday.  Continued comfortable
conditions are expected for Friday into the weekend, although there
will be a chance for some showers over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:20 AM EDT...Weak inverted pressure trough and
surface cold front continue to track off to our east.
Accordingly, showers have come to and end for areas north and
west of Albany, but will likely linger for a couple more hours
across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and southwest New
England. Despite drier-level air working in from the west,
current satellite imagery shows widespread low stratus upstream,
with patchy fog/mist where any breaks in the clouds are
occurring. Have continued and even expanded mention of patchy
fog through early this morning. With the abundant low clouds,
temperatures were running a couple degrees above the previous
forecast, so current temps and overnight lows were bumped up a
degree or two to better align with current trends and obs.
Otherwise, previous forecast remains in great shape with more
details below...

.Previous...A low pressure system and an inverted sfc trough
continue to move across eastern NY and New England this evening.
The showers associated with the disturbance are decreasing, as
the back edge has reached the Capital District/southern VT and
the northern Catskills. The showers should diminish between
04Z-07Z/WED with lingering low stratus and patchy fog
developing. We added some patchy fog in the major valleys and
across western New England. There is not strong cold advection
in the wake of the disturbance with lows falling into the mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday, skies will start off mostly cloudy for much of the
area, but there should be increasing amount of sun through the
day. A weak disturbance sliding by to the north could allow for
a brief shower or sprinkle during the midday hours (mainly for
northern and eastern areas), but this looks fairly isolated. Any
shower would be brief and rather light, as both moisture and
forcing will be limited. Have sided close to the blended
guidance for highs with valley areas in the mid 60s to low 70s
and upper 50s to mid 60s in the high terrain. A few more stray
showers are possible overnight across northern areas with
another disturbance passing by, but overall, any precip looks
light and spotty and most spots will be staying dry. Lows look
to fall into upper 40s to low 50s once again with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky.

Upper level ridging will be starting to build over the area for
Thursday and Thursday night. This should allow for dry
conditions with clearing skies, especially by Thursday night.
Daytime temps look fairly warm thanks to decent mixing and a dry
air mass in place, with valley temps in the 70s. Overnight lows
will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The extended forecast period begins with tranquil weather, as a mid
and upper level ridge axis is situated over NY and and the Mid
Atlantic Region. H850 temps will be running slightly above normal
based on the latest NAEFS guidance. A sfc anticyclone will be
building in from north-central Quebec.  Max temps will be running
slightly above normal, as we went close to the NBM guidance with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys and upper 50s to
mid 60s over the higher terrain. The ridge axis should hold on over
NY and New England Fri night with just some high clouds increasing.
Lows fall off into the 40s with some upper 30s over the southern
Greens.

The weekend becomes more unsettled, as a low pressure system and a
warm front approaches from the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley.
Clouds increase on Saturday with isolated to scattered showers
especially late in the day. A few thunderstorms may be possible over
the western Dacks. The max temps will trend a little cooler than
normal with more clouds than sunshine with 50s and 60s.  The
boundary becomes occluded with the weak sfc wave Saturday night and
the chances of showers increase, as a broad mid and upper level
trough sets up over central Canada/nrn Plains and the Upper Midwest.
Lows will be mainly in the 40s. The occluded front takes its time
moving over the region with the downstream ridge holding.  A chance
of showers was continued for Sunday into early Sunday night. Max
temps will continue below normal with 50s to lower 60s for highs, as
more clouds than sun prevail.  Partly cloud skies persist Sunday
night with lows mainly in the 40s again.

A brief period of fair weather is expected to open the week with a
sfc anticyclone building in from the Great Lakes Region in the wake
of the front. Temps should rise slightly above normal with west to
northwest flow aloft. The next northern stream disturbance
approaches from the Upper Plains Mon night to Tue along with its
warm front with increasing clouds with the next chance of showers
with perhaps a few thunderstorms. Temps continue slightly above
normal. For the Day 8-14 outlook for the 2nd week of May, CPC is
forecasting above normal temperatures and slightly above normal
precipitation for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Showers continue to end from west to east,
with just some light scattered -SHRA left around KPOU/KPSF. These
will be ending by 07z-08z, with dry conditions expected the rest of
the night. With plenty of residual low level moisture and not much
wind, low level stratus clouds will persist through the rest of the
night and this morning. Cigs are mainly at MVFR levels, except IFR
at KGFL. Cigs should lower to IFR at KPSF and remain IFR at KGFL,
with occasional IFR possible at KALB. Cigs at KPOU are expected to
be slightly higher, remaining above 1000 ft.

Gradual improvement is expected with MVFR cigs at all sites by 14z,
then eventually VFR by around 17z or 18z as some better mixing
develops along with the strong early May sun. An isolated -SHRA is
possible especially near KGFL during the afternoon, but coverage
should be too sparse to mention in TAFs. VFR conditions will likely
prevail through the rest of the period ending 06z Thursday.

Winds will initially be variable around 5 kt or less, becoming
northwest around 4-6 kt by late this morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms last night into this morning produced
some locally heavy rainfall over the Sacandaga and Saratoga
Regions, with up to two inches in some locations. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will spread across the region through
the late evening hours. Most of the activity will probably be
southern areas with this round, but enough northern areas will
see some additional rainfall again for the late day hours. The
low level flow out of the south will bring in plenty of moisture
into the region although dewpoints and PWATs will not be overly
excessive for this time of year.

Some of these showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy
downpours, which could lead to ponding of water in urban or low
lying areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period. Overall,
rainfall amounts will light enough to avoid any flooding of
main stem rivers.

Drier weather will return for Wednesday through the late week.
Although some additional showers are possible from time to time,
amounts are not expected to be excessive and no hydrologic
issues are anticipated through the late week.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Main/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...Frugis