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000
FXUS61 KBGM 180129
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
929 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected through most of Thursday, before high
pressure briefly moves in for Thursday night. Another system
will bring more showers to the area on Friday, followed by
mainly dry conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The next round of showers and isolated thunder has weakened to
our west as expected so far this evening. However, it is moving
in a bit quicker than some of the model guidance has. So with
the late evening update made some adjustments on the timing on
this next round of showers.


The first round of showers is moving east of the region early
this evening. Up next will be a band of thunderstorms over Ohio
which is still expected to weaken as it moves toward our region
overnight. Discussion below on track.


320 PM Update:

A warm front pushing through the area continues to bring some
light rain showers to the area. By tonight, a shortwave will
push through the area, which will bring additional rain showers
to the area. In addition, some elevated instability will be
present west of I-81, so cannot rule out a few embedded
thunderstorms.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected around sunrise on
Thursday before a weak cold front and trough axis moves through
the area from mid morning into the afternoon. This will allow
for additional showers to develop. Temperatures on Thursday will
vary from west to east, with high in the lower 50s to lower 60s
west of I-81, with mid 40s to lower 50s east of I-81.

The front and trough axis moves east of the area Thursday
night, while high pressure briefly moves in. This will allow
showers to gradually taper off by Thursday evening, but mostly
cloudy skies will remain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
130 PM Update

Friday will feature a cold front pushing through the region.
This will bring widespread rain showers and gusty southerly
winds at 10-20 mph ahead of the front. Depending on the exact
timing of FROPA, showers could hold on until Friday evening
before brief ridging and high pressure builds in Friday night
into Saturday morning. Brief high pressure on Saturday will
bring mostly dry conditions, however an upper trough and
reinforcing shot of cold air (Secondary cold front) comes in
Saturday afternoon. CAA advection on NW flow and isolated
showers and increasing cold air strato-cu is expected Saturday
afternoon. Also, expect breezy west- northwest winds 15 to 25
mph with gusts up around 30 mph.

Saturday night is dry, with decreasing clouds and diminishing
winds as upper ridge and surface ridge begins to build in. If
winds decouple fast enough it will be quite chilly/cold with
lows near or just below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM Update...

High pressure to end the weekend and into the first half of
next week. Overall, this should bring mostly sunny/clear
conditions. Expect a large diurnal temperature trend with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

At this point Tuesday is also looking dry to start, but the
latest guidance suggest at least a chance for late day showers
as the next upper level disturbance moves into the Ohio Valley
and east-central Great Lakes region. Looking ahead to next
Wednesday, and upper level trough will be over the
Northeast...bringing a continued chance for rain showers and
partly sunny skies. Steady daytime temperatures and a bit milder
overnight with the clouds around and a light southwest wind.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will be deteriorating as the evening progresses as
rain showers move into the area. Ceilings and/or visbys will
lower to MVFR, then eventually Fuel Alternate. IFR ceilings will
be possible as well, but if that occurs, it likely wouldn`t
occur until later in the evening. Best chance for IFR
restrictions tonight will be at KBGM, KELM, KITH and RME. While
guidance is hinting at IFR ceilings at KAVP as well, the
southeasterly downsloping wind should prevent ceilings from
dropping that low.

Conditions improve somewhat Thursday morning for most terminals,
with MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions expected to return.
Model guidance suggests persistent IFR conditions at BGM for the
whole period. Meanwhile IFR conditions are also possible at
SYR/RME tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Lingering ceiling
restrictions possible, but showers will gradually end.

Friday...Rain showers likely with associated restrictions.

Saturday through Monday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible
at the Central NY terminals; mainly VFR at KAVP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG/ES