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000
FXUS61 KBGM 170728
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Calm conditions this morning will give way to rain showers by
the afternoon as a warm front moves through the area. Rain
showers will continue off and on through Thursday. A quick high
pressure system pushes across the area Thursday night before
another system brings more showers on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
255 AM Update...

Calm and quiet conditions tonight and through tomorrow morning.
Temps tonight range from low 30s in the valleys of the Catskills
to 50 in the Wyoming Valley. Temps will cool a few more degrees
as clear skies remain mostly east of I-81 and winds have calmed
across the region.

The pleasant weather pattern over the last couple of days will
become active again as a low pressure system moves in from the
west. Multiple fronts and shortwave moving through the region
will bring rain showers and a possible isolated thunderstorm
Wed afternoon into Thursday afternoon.

A warm front will push into the region from the west beginning
late in the morning. Temperatures are expected to climb into the
mid 50s to low 60s, with the warmer temps in the Wyoming and
Mohawk Valleys. Precipitation will accompany the front, with
rain showers expected to begin in the early afternoon and push
to the NE. Model soundings show a pretty strong inversion near
the surface as the warm front moves through, so the initial
precip should be void of thunder. Some elevated instability is
expected to develop during the evening hours, and combined with
a shortwave pushing through the area will bring a chance for
isolated thunderstorms during the mid evening into the overnight
hours stretching from the western Finger Lakes into NEPA.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected around sunrise on
Thursday before a weak cold front and trough axis moves through
the area from mid morning into the afternoon. This should allow
for rain showers to remain across the region into the evening
hours. Temperatures on Thursday will vary greatly from west to
east, with low 60s expected out west to upper 40s in the
Catskills.

While we have a long period of rain, total rainfall amounts are
expected to be low, with 0.25 to 0.75 inches expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

Rain showers continue through the day on Thursday, before
gradually tapering off later in the day. Temperatures will be
variable depending on location with highs in the 40s to lower
50s east of I-81 and 50s to near 60 west of I-81. Generally dry
conditions are expected Thursday night, along with seasonable
overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The brief dry period doesn`t last, as yet another frontal system
quickly moves in from the west during the day on Friday. Exact
timing is uncertain, but chances for rain showers look to increase
up to high chance/low likely PoPs by afternoon over the area. If the
current timing holds, temperatures would rise up into the mid-50s to
lower 60s before the rain chances increase later in the day. Breezy
south winds at 10-20 mph are expected on Friday ahead of the cold
front. Rain showers are also likely Friday night as the actual cold
front slowly presses through. It will be cool, with lows in the low
to mid-40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Not much change to the long term forecast. Still looking like it
will be drying out, especially Sunday into next week.

320 AM Update

The weekend starts off with cool, partly sunny conditions and
perhaps some lingering scattered rain showers behind the departing
cold front on Saturday. Winds turn west-northwest and are forecast
to breezy, between 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. High pressure
begins to build into the area from the west Saturday night. This
should bring gradually clearing, and diminishing winds. It will be
seasonably chilly, with lows in the lower to mid-30s expected.

Sunday and Monday are looking dry at this time, under the large area
of high pressure. This should bring mostly sunny/clear
conditions...especially on Monday. Increased the diurnal
temperatures range by a few degrees each period, with it likely
being 1-3 degrees warmer during the day than the NBM suggested...and
perhaps a bit cooler at night in the lower to mid-30s again. This
looks to be a good setup for potential frost. At this point next
Tuesday is also looking mainly dry and mild, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across all terminals tonight and into the morning
hours. An approaching low pressure system will bring rain to the
region starting late morning, moving west to east, covering the
all terminals by mid afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected at
the onset of precipitation, with the main forecast challenge
being which terminals fall into IFR conditions later in the
afternoon and evening. Plenty of rain and moisture are expected
across the area from the incoming system, and SE flow into the
evening hours will reinforce this with moisture coming in off
the Atlantic. SE flow also means downsloping at AVP, ELM, ITH,
SYR and RME so the big question is does the downsloping win out
over the showers and moisture in place. Current thinking is AVP
should see IFR conditions in the evening as even though there
will be downsloping off the Poconos, cooling temperatures and
abundant moisture should get ceilings to IFR. ELM and ITH are
expected to remain MVFR as moisture will be less prevalent and
downsloping here should keep IFR from occurring.

A SE wind at BGM brings upslope flow to the terminal, which
should drop conditions to IFR by late afternoon.

SYR and RME are expected to see MVFR conditions by mid
afternoon thanks the the downsloping flow and warmer temps
allowing ceilings to take hold above IFR levels.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

Saturday into Sunday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...JTC