Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 261020
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
620 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...12z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will lift into the western
Great Lakes region today before exiting toward James Bay tonight.
This system will pull a warm front through the region this
morning followed by a cold front tonight. High pressure will
build in late Wednesday and remain in control through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
615 am update...
The forecast is pretty much on track this morning with no
impactful changes needed at this time. We made a few minor
adjustments to the hourly POPs now through late this morning
with the shield of light rain showers overspreading the area.
Despite initially having some very dry air in the low levels
earlier this morning, the rain moving in has moisten up the
atmosphere very fast allowing the rainfall to reach the ground a
little quick than expected. Allow for a little extra time due
to wet roadways and road spray for this morning`s commute.

Previous discussion...
The two main impactful weather concerns for the near term
forecast will be the gusty winds today, especially during this
morning, and the marginal threat for a couple strong to severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northwest
Ohio.

We have rain showers quickly moving in from the west and
southwest this morning associated with a warm front. We have
some very dry air in the low levels this morning over the area.
Dewpoint depressions are very high between 30 and 40 degrees
ahead of the advancing rain showers. Relative humidity values in
the upper teens and 20s which is very dry. It will take a
little time before the atmosphere saturates this morning and
rainfall reaches the ground. It may initially start out as
sprinkles before steady rain showers move in for the morning
commute. With the low level dry air, evaporation in the lower
column will also chance or bring down some higher wind gusts
this morning as the showers progress from west to east.
Southerly winds will increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40
or 45 mph possible, especially for areas west of I-71 through
the rest of the morning and midday. As of right now, it appears
to stay below wind advisory criteria for our western Ohio
counties. We will continue to mention the stronger gusty wind
potential in a SPS this morning. Local effects from downsloping
near Erie County PA will continue through late this morning
with localized wind gusts up to 50 mph possible. We will
continue that Wind Advisory until noon today.

The rain showers will advance into far northeast Ohio and NWPA
midday through the afternoon. There may be a slight lull or
break in the rain chances for areas of northwest Ohio this
afternoon before the actual cold front starts to enter into NWOH
this evening. There is a marginal to slight risk for a few
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop in a broken line of
convection along the advancing cold front late this afternoon
and evening across northwest Ohio. High temps will be coolest
over NEOH and NWPA in the lower to mid 50s. Milder temps will be
over NWOH this afternoon in the low 60s.

This severe weather setup will be a high shear and weak CAPE
type environment with low topped convection along the front.
0-6km Bulk shear values are very high 80 to 90 knots. 0-3km CAPE
will be between 100-150 J/KG. 0-1km storm relative helicity
values will be up to 250 M2/S2. The main severe weather hazard
will be isolated damaging wind gusts but an isolated tornado
threat can`t be ruled out for northwest Ohio early this evening.
The time window for NWOH will be between 22z and 02z. The
convection is expected to weaken to a line of rain showers by
the time it pushes eastward towards the I-71 corridor around 03z
this evening.

Rain showers will end from west to east overnight across NEOH
and NWPA with passage of the front. High pressure will build in
tomorrow with cooler weather and temps in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Wednesday night, a surface high is expected to build east over
the area, bringing a much drier airmass and a break in precipitation
through Friday. This will also allow for plenty of peaks of
sunshine. Overnight lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights will be a
bit cooler than the start of the week, dropping to near freezing
across the area. Highs on Thursday will be more seasonal, reaching
into the upper 40s to low 50s before temperatures warm a bit more on
Friday with highs across the western counties climbing into the mid
to upper 50s.

By Friday night, the aforementioned high pressure will begin to
shift east, allowing a weak warm frontal boundary extends east over
the area from a parent low centered over the Upper Midwest. With an
area of upper level divergence coupled with a vort max pushing east,
there will be enough support for shower development Friday night,
although most showers should remain rather light. In addition, with
a southerly flow becoming established across the area, lows will only
drop into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As discussed in the short term period, a low pressure centered over
the Upper Midwest will continue to bring showers to the area through
Saturday as an associated cold front is expected to push east
Saturday night. This system continues to look pretty weak in nature
with only 0.05-0.1" of QPF expected in total.

On Sunday, a brief ridge of high pressure looks to nudge north
across the area allowing for a brief hiatus in precipitation as
another low pressure system develops over the central US. This low
will extend a warm front towards the area Sunday night which will
mark another chance of precipitation. The overall track of the low
is in good agreement amongst models as they take it from the central
US northeast through the central Great Lakes region with the center
of the low expected to move just west of the western lakeshore. The
biggest discrepancy is the timing of the progression of the low, but
either way, the start to next week looks to be a wet one.

Highs through the periods will linger in the 50s with the area
seeing the warmest temperatures on Monday. Overnight lows will drop
into the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Despite a large area of light to moderate rain showers
overspreading the area this morning, we are seeing mostly VFR
ceilings and conditions. There are a few pockets of MVFR
conditions on the backside of this shield of rain moving across
the area. The general message for aviation going forward today
will be VFR to MVFR conditions are expected across northern Ohio
into NWPA. Have possible impacts of MVFR ceilings of 3000 feet
and visibility dropping to 5sm for a 3 or 4 hour TEMPO window
as accordingly for each TAF site later this morning.

There could be lull or break in the rain showers this afternoon
before the actual cold front moves in later this evening from
west to east. There may be a broken line of low topped
convection with this front which could impact TOL and FDY with a
marginal risk for some stronger convection. The line of
convection could make it as far east as MFD and CLE before
decreasing to gusty rain showers after that late this evening.
Have PROP30 groups for this potential of -TSRA this evening for
TOL, FDY, MFD, and CLE. Also borderline VFR to MVFR ceilings are
expected to continue after this morning rain showers through
this evening.

The other notable weather impact will be the gusty winds from
the south-southeast this morning through the early evening
hours. Winds will increase this morning areawide of 15 to 25
knots with gusts possible up to 35 knots this morning and
relaxing to up to 30 knots this afternoon for all sites. ERI
will have a little higher wind gusts potential this morning up
to 40 knots decreasing to 35 knots later in the day. Winds will
eventually shift from the southwest after the cold frontal
passage very late this evening or overnight around 8 to 12
knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist into tonight as
a low pressure system centered over the Midwest tracks east into the
region. For today, winds will remain out of the southeast at 20-25
knots across Lake Erie, with local enhancement of winds from
Conneaut to Ripley due to downsloping. The highest waves will stay
isolated to the northern lakeshore, keeping wave heights of 2-4 feet
across the nearshore waters. A cold front will begin to move east
across the lake near 00Z Wednesday, marking the gradual weakening to
10-15 knots and shifting of winds to be out of the west-southwest by
Wednesday morning. To account for these conditions, a Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect through midnight tonight.

High pressure will build east over the region late Wednesday and
will linger through Friday. This will allow winds to remain from the
west-northwest at 5-10 knots. On Friday night into Saturday, a weak
warm front will approach the southern lakeshore before a low
pressure center tracks east along this boundary on Saturday. With
the low moving through, wind directions will be variable at 5-10
knots before becoming sustained from the northwest at 5-10 knots
Saturday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT today for PAZ001-002.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ142>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Campbell


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.