552
FXUS61 KCLE 110716
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will continue to waver north of the Ohio River
Valley before lifting northward on Saturday ahead of a low pressure
system as it approaches the Great Lakes. A cold front will traverse
the region throughout the day on Sunday as the low pressure system
lifts northeast into the James Bay region. High pressure will build
in behind for the beginning of the week as another low pressure
system and cold front move into the region late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level troughing continues to push off to the east through New
England through Friday. A surface stationary front will be left in
the wake and waver north to south across the Northern Ohio River
Valley Friday into Saturday. A shortwave and weak 500mb vort max
located over Lake Michigan will move eastward on Friday giving a
chance for slight PoPs across NW Ohio Friday afternoon into the
evening. Dewpoints will be reaching into the upper 60s/low 70s by
the afternoon ahead of the feature with MLCAPE values around 1000-
1500 J/kg will provide a chance for strong to severe wind gusts in
convection that forms. Out in the eastern Ohio counties, dew points
will be of similar values and with low level lapse rates of 8 C/km
will allow for some isolated convection to form. The shortwave will
weaken as it moves to the east, but there will be slight to chance
probability for precipitation across the lakeshore from
Cleveland through Erie, PA through early Saturday morning. Highs
on Friday will be warm in the upper 80s with very mild
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Saturday, the stationary boundary will push northward and flow will
shift to be more south-southwesterly ahead of a low pressure system
moving across Western Ontario. Increased dew points into the upper
60s/low 70s across the region will allow for some convection to form
across the western half of the CWA. There will be plenty of MLCAPE
with values 1500-2000 J/kg, DCAPE of around 900 J/kg, and low level
lapse rates around 8 C/km will support convection and a chance for
downbursts. Severe weather potential should fall off after sunset
with a less favorable environment. The other main point for Saturday
will be the high heat indices. Given the previously mentioned high
dew points across the region and high temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s, heat indices will be approaching the mid to upper 90s
during the afternoon on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night, thunderstorms chances will continue ahead of a cold
front that will move through on Sunday. Models are showing the
initial upper level trough to push off to the northeast and weaken
early Sunday as another trough deepens over the northern plains.
This weakening of the initial trough could slow the movement of the
surface low and cold front through the region. As of now, the front
will enter the western portion of the area early Sunday morning and
move across the region throughout the day exiting late Sunday night.
This slower movement could allow for increase potential in heavy
rain across the region along with strong to severe thunderstorms,
especially across the eastern portion of the area where daytime
heating wouldn`t be limited by precipitation. There wasn`t many
changes to PoPs to accounted for this, though did trend the higher
PoPs on Sunday slightly slower.

After frontal passage, high pressure with upper level ridging should
build into region to start the week. Monday will be trend drier,
though there may be a few scattered showers across the eastern and
southern counties to start the day. High temperatures will be lower
in the mid 80s across the area with overnight lows down in the mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term will start as a quiet stretch as the aforementioned
ridging will move across the eastern CONUS through Wednesday evening
as the next upper level trough takes shape over the upper Great
Plains. Flow across the region will be primarily out of the south-
southwest as were positioned north of the ridge allowing for warm,
moist air to be pushed into the region during the week. High
temperatures will bounce back in the middle of the week with highs
in the low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s/low 70s. PoP
chances will return Wednesday night through Thursday ahead of the
upper level trough and surface low pressure system develops to the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The overnight will remain precipitation-free as high-level
cirrus lingers across the area. Patchy fog is expected,
especially in central and east-central Ohio. Added a few hours
of BR for some spots, with periodic FG at KYNG.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Friday afternoon, though limited instability will result in
lower confidence in lightning occurrence compared to the past
few days. For now, added VCSH at most TAF sites Friday
afternoon, with showers largely done by ~21-22Z. VFR expected
thereafter.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
With the exception of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are
generally expected to be 10 knots or less through this
afternoon. Winds out of the south increase to around 10-15 knots
tonight before gradually become southwest Saturday. Following a
cold front, winds become west and northwest Sunday and Sunday
night, before weakening to less than 10 knots on Monday and
Tuesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders